Bush'd second term: an interesting analysis...

...or prophesy.

http://www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_report&report_id=235&language_id=1


"During the first term of George W. Bush, Washington was the initiator
in world affairs, attempting to carry through a unilateralist program
that, if successful, would have made the United States a permanent
superpower protecting globalized capitalism to its advantage.
In Bush's second term, Washington will primarily be a responder, because it is mired in the failures of the unilateralist thrust. The image of
decisive military superiority has been replaced by a sense of U.S.
limitations, and massive budget surpluses have given way to the
prospect of continued large deficits.

- Reinforcing Factors from the Election

As the Bush administration attempts to deal with persisting problems
resulting in great part from actions taken during the President's first term, it will face difficulties that follow from the need to satisfy the constituencies that made for the Republican victory. The election confirmed that the American public does not share a consensus on foreign policy and, indeed, is polarized. It is also polarized on
economic and social issues, along similar axes, creating a situation in which any new policies proposed by the administration are likely to be met with domestic opposition and at the very least partial support.

<snip>

Focus on domestic politics will be increased by the need to satisfy
social conservative constituencies by appointing judges favorable to
their positions on "moral values." Here again, there will be strong
opposition if appointments are perceived by Democrats and moderate
Republicans as too ideologically favorable to the religious right.
Protracted battles over judgeships -- whether successful or not --
would further diminish Bush's political capital for foreign policy
initiatives by heating up partisanship..

It is possible that the administration will not pursue its agenda
aggressively and will seek compromises, but that is not likely because
of pressures within the Republican Party. The same constituencies that
voted in Bush elected a Republican congress, and its members face
reelection contests and the consequent need to satisfy their bases.
Since Bush cannot serve a third term, Republican officeholders can no
longer depend on his popularity to help carry them to victory. They
also do not have a unifying leader with a political strategy to
coordinate diverse constituencies.

<snip>

As Washington drifts, the rest of the world will test it, probing for
weaknesses. Under steady pressure from many sides, the Bush
administration will be drawn toward retrenchment, retreat and
eventually retraction in international affairs. The scenario of
American empire has faded into memory and the prospect that the U.S.
will eventually become a dominant regional power with some global reach becomes more probable."