There will NOT be a draft.

THERE WILL NOT BE A DRAFT

A present, many DU-ers are acting like Chicken Little. “There’s gonna be a draft. There’s gonna be a draft. Run to Canada, or somewhere. Hurry. The sky is falling.” And so Chicken Little sacrificed all of his credibility to a panic attack. And when, a few years from now, as we try to warn people about some real danger in a Republican, the Rep will be able to laugh and remind the voters that the warning is coming from the same people who claimed that there would be a draft, and it didn’t happen.

Many antiwar activists seem to be hoping for a draft to come back so that it will help arouse anti-military service feelings in the general public.

Here are some reasons why there will not be a draft.

1. The military will fight against a new draft. That’s right. The generals DON’T want a draft. Here are some of their reasons.

A. Draftees have negative attitudes that are contagious. The draftee doesn’t want to be there, and while he will do his duty, he will be very vocal about his displeasure with the service. After a while, his attitude will infect the volunteers. With the modern military, if you don't want to be in, they don't want you in.

B. Draftees are expensive. You have to spend time and money training them and as soon as their time is up, they will leave. Compare that to the volunteer who is likely to reenlist and will not need to go through the early stages of training again.

C. Volunteers are much easier to mold. The volunteer has invested emotional energy in the service by his act of joining. He wants to feel good about his decision. The service knows this and tells him that he is one of the brave elite in contract to the cowards and wimps of the rest of the country. They tell him that he is a Tiger in combat, and he believes it. And because he believes it, and gets the training to actually be a Tiger, he genuinely does become one. It is a well known military fact that you can do more with ten motivated volunteers than you can with 30 draftees.

D. New technologies will make additional soldiers unneeded. The USA has always believed in the use of force multipliers. Those are things that increase the combat effectiveness of the military but without requiring additional troops. Current technology will soon see the early fielding of robotic weapons systems. Not totally autonomous, but as I posted in another article (Robot Warriors. Coming soon to a war near you?) they are under development NOW. The services will much prefer to use a machine if they can, instead of a human. Especially if that machine is more effective than a human.

2. The draft bill, (Sponsored only by Democrats.) recently failed to pass the house, in a vote of 402-2 against it. It just isn’t going to happen. The only voices for a draft are coming from the left, not the right. I think the far left is hoping for a draft so that the common person will feel a sense of danger for himself or a family member. If a great enough number can be made to feel the danger, (whether real or imaginary) then the hope is that a genuinely popular anti-war movement like the 60s/70s will arise.

3. The political price would be too high. Despite the fact that most posters here at DU like to call Republicans dumb, the fact is they aren’t dumb. They know what a return to the draft would mean, and they don’t want anything to do with it.

So far, anti-war activists seem to be fighting against this war the same way they fought against the Vietnam War. But the times have changed, and we must understand the changes, or be left behind. It is said that most generals always prepare to refight the last war, and only a few see the weapons and tactics of the next war. It seems like the same idea applies to activists too.

alrady hit.

1.- Restaff all the Selective Service Boards... yep they are NOW FULLY STAFFED

2.- Check that the system works by cross checking your loans from uncle sam with your status before the SSS in colleges, to be carried within forty days as of Oh November 4th, 2004 (per Federal Registry)

You should REALLY start reading things like the Federal Registry

Oh and one more thing

There is ALREADY A BACK DOOR DRAFT and the armed forces are over extended to the tune of two full combat divisions (at least)

The economy will get so totally fucked that the only jobs for people under 30 will be the military. Now that will be a REALLY military with some positive attitudes for ya.

who aren't even part of the IRR (Individual Ready Reserve), right?

One guy in Hawaii said screw that, I'm not subject to recall and he sued. It's pending but DoD told him "you have 30 days to report to South Carolina."

That and the stop loss and HEAVY recruiting is their "draft" for now.

But I don't put anything past the republicans. All you said makes sense, but they often do not. You might not see a twist they will put in it to make it more palatable. I'm just sayin'. After watching these guys this long, nothing surprises me.

I mean guys not in the IRR are NOT subject to recall, but they are trying to, especially veterans of the first Gulf War.

Machines don't flinch when the terminated target turns out to be a 5 year old kid or a pregnant woman.

War waged by machines without a soul. That will be America's legacy.

The operator just won't need to be in the machine. He will be data linked to it. But the decision to fire will be made by a human.

It's easy to slaughter little video images. Our kids are being trained to do this as entertainment every day.

A few weeks ago CNN ran some video of a missle attack by the US on a few dozen people walking down a street. Were they civilians or insurgents? Or maybe a mix of both?

No way the missle camera could tell.

After the bomb lit up the whole block, the operation controller kind of chuckled and said "whoa dude".

We are turning into fucking monsters.

As much as I hate Halliburton and KBR, they are actually helping (and we are paying) to avoid the manpower the military needs for it's upkeep like food, shelter & clothing. It used to be the military took care of all that themselves and it takes manpower to do all those non-combatant things as well.

I also see your point about the machinery. That;s a little scary but I've heard about it.

I am a little worried about a medical or special skills draft. (I'm a nurse) I get a little shakey everytime I receive a letter from the Armed Services about being a flight nurse and I am now 40. Obviously, they need those types of people. If worse comes to worse, I bet they will outsource/privatize special skills, too, if they can't find enough volunteers. I bet the draft is the last thing they want to do because of the reasons you stated above.

They know we would ALL be a little upset about a regular draft.

I don't think anyone can definitively say there will or won't. I mean, with this administration, there are any number of horribles I never thought I'd see come to pass happen before my eyes.

Guess what

This board and other Dem activist boards have been plagued with dis-information designed to make us look like a bunch of FOOLS

need proof

look who is still in the White House

Until we learn not to react to the Ratpublican Dis-information / Propaganda Machine we will be controled by it.

1. The military will fight against a new draft. The generals DON’T want a draft.

Since when did the Bush administration give a flying flip about what the generals want? The generals wanted to go after bin Laden. The generals wanted to prepare more for Iraq. Hell, most generals didn't even want to go into Iraq--they feared a quagmire and were only consoled by the fact that their men would be wearing adequate body armor...

Oops, Bush ignored the generals about that, too.



2. The draft bill, (Sponsored only by Democrats.) recently failed to pass the house, in a vote of 402-2

Yup, the bill sponsored by Democrats failed because it was a pre-election ploy to force the Republicans to reject the draft. The GOP fell in line behind the Bushies' wishes and rejected it just like the Dems did. But if Bush decides he needs more warm bodies in Fallujah, we both know that the GOP congressmen will line up and vote like good sheep. After all, it's not like there's an election coming up anytime soon...


3. The political price would be too high.

I really hope you're right here. But if there's a bigger and bigger war, as seems likely, the need to force up the troops will become too great to resist. It won't be a direct draft. You're right that they're too smart for that. But there will probably be a special skills draft. The RRFs and vets are going to start running thin soon. You can bet that they'll find some way of drafting in needed technicians and medicos without calling it a "draft" per se. The plans for that seem to be already on the books.

as an example...Unit XXX might have 160 men now and 200 at full strength currently 80%...

... would be via an further expansion of a privatized, mercenary army. This just Bush's style, if you think about it.

RTP

They are already gearing up to ram a "special skills draft" through Congress, one that will be sold to people as supplying enough medical personnel to take care of our troops. They will also mention computer personnel. However, it will be so badly worded that they'll be able to call up any "specialty" they need, including that wonderful special skill called "grunt."

There is no way around it. The military is stretched to the breaking point. When they start calling up old geezers who have been retired for a decade, you'd better prepare yourself for a draft.

will change the entire paradigm.

The political price would be mitigated significantly by such an event.

b*sh can't just do it by exec order

congress has to act

career suicide for any congressperson who votes for it

b*sh can order selective service to buck up if he wants, but can't tell them to start conscripting

won't happen. senators like their jobs too much. will never get past filibuster

i know that's not a popular opinion here, but seems common sense to me.

only options.

We'll see.

Force multipliers are future war. The need will be on us by spring of next year.

We will be so critically short of troop when Syria, Iran, Iraq, Israel, and Saudi Arabia are all hot zones. And if the Chinese decide to move on Taiwan, or the NK moves on SK, we will speak harshly to them.

Our economy is in free fall now, and we have not even seen the real economic warfare. We will not only have a military draft, we will have a command economy to boot. That's what a national state of emergency looks like, and that is what * requires to pull off his rightist coup.

Bremer came out later and said that there weren't nearly enough troops on the ground. The generals may not want it, but they may not have much of a choice.

A. It's only a matter of time that volunteers get fed up, en masse, with the constant involuntary tour extensions. Think draftees have negative attitudes? Watch what happens when soldiers realize they may be deployed for years. We're already pushing the National Guard too hard, people who signed up for a few weekends a year, not years of combat duty.

B. Who says draftees will have much of a choice to leave?

C. "You can do more with ten motivated volunteers than you can with 30 draftees." The key word is "motivated." There is no clear strategy in Iraq. The much-heralded assault on Fallujah still goes on as Mosul erupts. How long can anyone stay motivated when there is no progress being made? And a "well known military fact?" Really? Link, please. I'd be interested to see when and how they made that calculation.

"He wants to feel good about his decision." And what happens when he gets sick of being ill-equipped, overworked and undermanned? Oh, wait--maybe your point D will provide an answer:

D. Robots! Yeah! With laser guns! Can speak Arabic and play DVDs, too! The whole 'new technologies' thing is a fave of Rumsfeld's. That's worked out real well, hasn't it? Robots? To make up for the over 100,000 troops shortfall for urban warfare and policing? Not in this decade.

2. The draft bill was a point that Charlie Rangel was trying to make. He never seriously thought it'd pass. He was making a statement. And it was introduced a year ago. The necessity of a draft is growing each day we're in Iraq.

3. Have you been paying attention the past four years? Republicans do exactly what Chimpy wants them to do. The only political price they fear is not doing what Bush and pals want them to. And besides, rely on the sanity of the Republican Party? That's rich.

You didn't provide any comparisons to how anti-Vietnam War "activists" are like anti-Iraq War "activists." You just listed reasons why you don't think a draft is going to happen, and then jumped to that conclusion. The fact is, 30-some years ago it was a largely youth-driven movement who was actively being drafted. Today, those of us against the War span the entire demographic spectrum.

And the whole "times have changed, and we must understand the changes, or be left behind"? Rummy would be proud.

Let the repugs keep waving the flag and promoting the virtues of the war against "terrists," while the dems keep complaining about the unnecessary and unjust war and their refusal to support it. Turn it into a all-out debate to prove who's the real patriot, but let the repugs win outright. Soon everyone who voted for Chimp will volunteer for the military to prove they are more patriotic than those liberal dems. Chimp gets to keep his promise of an all-volunteer army, the military is as big as it will ever need to be, and once we finish pissing of the rest of the civilized world and have enough casualties, only dems will be left back home to vote and finally clean up the mess.

Yeah, yeah, it'll never happen. And I generally agree that a draft will PROBABLY never happen. Still, the dangerous path I see this administration leading us on makes the necessity of a draft greater and greater. I predict volunteers being in increasingly shorter supply and a military forced stretched thinner and thinner, and that's without any new attack at home that will demand a build-up of defensive forces.

After the last four years, I'm learning to never say never. And I still believe the only thing the repugs need is to figure out some way to blame a draft on Clinton and Kerry, and we'll be there.

:scared:

be glad to send their boy off to do his bit. It will take a few thousand more coming home in a box to dampen their enthusiasm for killing Arabs. Look how long it took for killing Vietnamese to get old.

I think everyone between 20-35 needs to think about what he (and possibly she) would do if the draft was reinstated.

And I hope you're correct and the draft will never come to pass.