Chance of Ateroid impact now at 1-37, up from 1-300

I don't like the odds. I don't see it as a civilization destroyer, but it will inconvenience a lot of people.

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html

I say start firing the nukes now!

Or, :wtf: is an "ateroid"

causes skippin-there is no time there is no tim!

18

Anyway, that's what I heard, and I believe everything I hear!

And what's that I've heard about Uranus?!

they can be dangerous if you eat too many at once. :evilgrin:

They'll have to redouble their efforts to see if they can destroy the world before the asteroid does.

and a .00000001% chance bush was going to win based on exit polls...imo, we're all gonna die.

you think that tsunami was bad?

1500 MT??? that would be one big hole...not to mention the after effects


theProdigal

A 1/37 chance of millions/billions of people getting killed... it seems like we (ie the government/NASA/etc) should be doing something about this...

:hi:
And yes, it would seem that 1 in 37 would demand some kind of reaction. I doubt we're going to get it, though.

By then the odds will either be much higher, or will be down to virtually nothing (36 out of 37 on that latter).

It's still too early to decide if anything needs to be done. We won't need to wait long to find out for sure.

--Peter

So far the trend is not encouraging. Let's see if that trend continues over the next few days. If so, we may well have something to worry about.

:shrug:

--Peter

just doesn't make sense to me. As more data comes in and/or their calculations are refined, the odds could go up, or they could go down. The fact that they went down this last time has no bearing.

But each time the probability has been revised in recent days, it has gone up. So it's a "trend", even if it isn't predictive of what will happen next time the calculations are refined.

The same way that there was that x-prize for the reusable space vehicle.

Heck, we could use an x-prize for almost anything - it's capitalism at it's absolute purest and it's beautiful

Do you really trust the government to start mucking about with giant rocks aimed at us?

Do you really want the government to start taking bids from Raytheon and GE and start farming-out sweetheart deals to their cronies while our president looks to the skies and sees not the threat of destruction, but his opportunity to fulfill his personal destiny and bring Jesus back to Earth?

You do realize that Bush will still be "president" in 2029.

beside the government?

Who else has the money/power to destroy/deflect/whatever this asteroid?

and Bush can somehow exploit fear of this thing hitting the earth (of course nobody cares if it's not 'murika), expect nothing.

Why do you think the ISS just got stocked up? Do you really think they were just bringing 2 tons of food and supplies?
;)

be obsoleted 10 times before the thing is close enough to do something about.

In 2029 we'll probably shoot it out of the sky with an ion cannon that any teenager can buy at Wal-Mart for 99 cents. Made in China.

only 50% of the time. That asteroid may be a bigger target, but it's also traveling much, much faster than any of those incoming missiles were, and it doesn't have a homing beacon on it.

Let's hope the odds don't keep getting smaller, folks, or prepare to learn Yoga so you can kiss your butt goodbye.

more, uh, pressing matters. 2029 is a long way off.

Everybody was hyping toutatis too. :eyes:

We won't be able to simply blow the thing up ala Bruce Willis.

What we CAN do is change its course slowly over the course of many years.

For example:

1) An ion-driven rocket engine landed on the asteroid, with the horsepower of a sportscar can, over the course of many years, change its orbit.

2) An extremely high-power laserbeam, kept aimed at the asteroid for many years, can change its orbit through "light pressure" and/or venting material from the rock.

3) Attach a "Solar Sail" to the asteroid to change its orbit over many years.

As an added bonus, some of these methods might possibly be used to move the asteroid into an orbit where its resources can be mined and used for space exploration.

Failing that, we could put a Voyager-style spaceprobe on the asteroid and hitch a free ride into the outer solar system.

I'd just bet the odds are far greater

It's about a comet, but it still seems pretty relevant.

Tucker

I remember the possibility of such an aftermath (cannibalism, nuclear strikes) scaring the shit out of me. I believe if we ever did face such a cataclysm in reality , humanity would do the same thing it did in the book,i.e. revert to its' basest instincts.

It would be a good idea to have contingency plans, IMO.

Tucker

anyone....?

for about 2 days in the news was a big rock discovered that would impact the earth at around 2012. Then about a week later the news was that scientists had miscalculated, and in fact the rock is not going to hit the earth. I told everyone at the time don't believe it. I bet that rock is still heading this way. Maybe this is nasa conducting propoganda intended to slowly get the public used to the thought of impact, so when the impact does occur in 2012 it is less of a surprise.

It seems like there's far too many foreign and amateur astronomers out there using the same type of equipment to keep a potential impact secret from the general public for very long.

hmmmmm.

Place your bets, please. Ladies and gentlemen, place your bets!

"Afterwards, the universe will explode for your pleasure." -- The Maitre d' at Milliways, the Restaurant at the End of Universe.

now down to 1 in 56,000

WHEW...i was worried...

theProdigal

Seriously, last I saw was 1 in 37

i don't know how often they update or recalculate but this was at about 2:00PM eastern...

theProdigal

Here's the link to the blurb.

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/

Like Ann Landers, he had an answer for everything.

this year.

I figure it's practice for the big event. Project "deep impact."

Since it seems to be the consensus around here that Asteroids will kill us all, can't we live it up until then?

Chances are that before the asteroid hits, we'll already have been done in by tsunamis, supervolcanos, global warning, bird flu or nuclear war.

He's my hero.

He's 'strong on asteroid defense'.

That our chances are 1 in 26,000. And on the Torino Scale, our rating is currently a 1 which means, according to (sorry don't know how to make clickies in links yet :( ) http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/torino_scale.html
this:

Normal
(Green Zone)
1
A routine discovery in which a pass near the Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger. Current calculations show the chance of collision is extremely unlikely with no cause for public attention or public concern. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to re-assignment to Level 0.

But it still scares me nonetheless. But consider we were a 4 on the Torino scale (Yellow zone) and that means:

Meriting Attention by Astronomers
(Yellow Zone)

4
A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of regional devastation. Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away.

I don't see where the 1 in 37 is for a collision, perhaps you meant against? I could be wrong since I'm not all that great with math so please forgive:( Math is a bit of a weak area for me but possibly you mean 1 in 37 that it won't hit but still those odds are scary to me.
I really hope this goes to 0 on the Torino... With the earthquake and tsunamis here on earth recently, this news is also very frightening.

Thank you for updating us. I'd lost the link to this page and meant to bookie it last night but didn't. Brightest blessings to all here and around the world esp. in south-east Asia ~ April


Ps- Here is where the chance is 1 in 26,000 of an impact and it is Nasa indeed stating that as of right now http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ip?3.8e-05
Oh and clickies work woo-hoo!

If that BS weapons technology can be modified to blow up an earth-killer, I wouldn't mind funding it..

Possibility of an Earth Impact in 2029 Ruled Out for Asteroid 2004 MN4

Don Yeomans, Steve Chesley and Paul Chodas
NASA's Near Earth Object Program Office
December 27, 2004

Over the past week, several independent efforts were made to search for pre-discovery observations of 2004 MN4. These efforts proved successful today when Jeff Larsen and Anne Descour of the Spacewatch Observatory near Tucson, Arizona, were able to detect and measure very faint images of asteroid 2004 MN4 on archival images dating to 15 March 2004. These observations extended the observed time interval for this asteroid by three months allowing an improvement in its orbit so that an Earth impact on 13 April 2029 can now be ruled out.

As is often the case, the possibility of future Earth impacts for some near-Earth objects cannot be entirely ruled out until the uncertainties associated with their trajectories are reduced as a result of either future position observations, or in this case, heretofore unrecognized, pre-discovery observations. When these additional observations were used to update the orbit of 2004 MN4, the uncertainties associated with this object's future positions in space were reduced to such an extent that none of the object's possible trajectories can impact the Earth (or Moon) in 2029.

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news148.html