Markets & Data Suggest That US Econ Recovery Is ARTIFICIAL

http://www.safehaven.com/article-2482.htm

Worst Employment Since 1932

Before we proceed to what the markets are saying about the current recovery, let us review the latest economic data. With the release of the latest Nonfarm Payroll Employment, we now have the number of jobs LOST, 175,000, during the 4-year Presidential term, 2001-2004. This is the first loss during a single Presidential term since 1929-1932, by far the worst 4-year period in the US history, certainly since the Civil War. The only other 4-year period, not comprising a Presidential term, during which jobs were lost contained two recessions, the Double-Dip recessions of 1980-1982, the worst period of deep recession since the Great Depression.

One of the Largest Stimuli

The largest stimulus, fiscal and, or, monetary, as a % of the GDP, over a 4-year period since 1929, took place during the WW II, 1942-1945, which resulted in a 20% gain in employment. Next to the WW II, the three periods with the largest, and comparable, stimuli are 1933-36, 1983-86 and 2001-2004. 1933 was the worst year of Great Depression and there were many programs to create employment during 1933-36 under FDR and I presume that there was growth in Employment during those 4 years. The fiscal stimulus of 1983-86, the Reagan tax cuts and defense spending, created 12 million jobs, a growth of 13% in employment. 2001-4 IS THE FIRST TIME IN HISTORY FOR WHICH WE HAVE DATA DURING WHICH JOBS WERE LOST DESPITE ONE OF THE LARGEST STIMULI IN HISTORY. But for the stimulus we would have lost somewhere between 10-20 million jobs over the 4-year period (the upper figure is lot harder to estimate than the lower figure and could be quite a bit larger due to the snowball effect).

of 750,000 jobs.

Employment Picture Still Dreary
Comstock Funds
January 06, 2005

Whatever the December payroll employment report shows tomorrow, it can’t come close to making a dent in the serious jobs shortfall of the current economic expansion. Here’s why. The NBER officially designated November 2001 as the bottom of the last recession, meaning that the November report marked the third anniversary of the upturn. During this 36-month period total non-farm payroll employment increased only 0.9%, a number that pales in comparison to past cycles. Over the last seven economic expansions the average rise for a comparable period was 8.7%. If that were the case on the current cycle there would have been 10.2 million more jobs than the total number reported for November, and the average monthly increase for the 36-month period would have been 316,000 per month. Instead the average monthly rise was a paltry 33,000, and even over the past 12 months when employment picked up somewhat, the average monthly increase came to only 171,000, a far cry from the typical cyclical increase. In fact only three months of the 36 showed increases of more than 300,000 jobs.

Snip ......

http://www.comstockfunds.com/screenprint.cfm?newsletterid=1155

CBSmarketwatch has the headline "No sign of inflation" and "jobless claims dip, but then you read the article and you find these little tidbits.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BF134ABBC%2D1BDF%2D4667%2D8AAE%2DC969E9DE08EF%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=

The CPI increased 3.3 percent in 2004, the largest increase since 3.4 percent in 2000. Core prices increased a moderate 2.2 percent, the most since 2001's 2.7 percent increase.

With hourly wages up 2.7 percent in 2004, real hourly wages adjusted for inflation fell by 0.8 percent. It's the first year real wages have declined since 1994. Weekly wages fell 0.2 percent in 2004 and are essentially flat since the recession ended in November 2001.

WTF!!

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B46B4B48B%2DEEE1%2D47B9%2DB526%2D09DC3242541B%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=

Meanwhile, the number of laid-off workers receiving unemployment benefits rose by 47,000 to 2.69 million.

And correct me if I'm wrong, isn't the following information just people not able to receive claims, or have stopped looking for work?

The four-week average of continuing claims fell by 8,000 to 2.74 million.

The insured unemployment rate remained at 2.1 percent

It's all a bunch of bullshit! We're being lied to on a grand scale! It's all unprecedented!

The following graph is from the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank.

It show how hard Dallas employment has been hit under Bush.

no inflation.

:eyes: