Can somebody enlighten me?

If al-Sistani's party wins the Iraqi elections, instead of Allawi's, will that be a blow to Bush? How big, and why?

to fix the election with the results that they want. They are experienced at that. (K. Harris, K. Blackwell, Diebold, etc.)

But... note the comment above. Plus, this is not the election of a President. It is an election of 3 times removed from the actual election of a President... I think next year... honestly, I am so confused about who/what/where/when at this point that I figure whomever climbs the dead bodies to the throne will be doing so at the blessing of Bush... that said...

One item of note... the entire planet hates us right now. I have never seen such rabid anti-us sentiment. Governments closer via geography might use the opportunity for a little payback. Remember, we don't have many troops there and the EU, Russia, China, Iran all have a vested interest in what happens there. Since China, Russia and Iran want to control that area and since China has more money than the US, plus the budding relationships of the EU and the far east, the election may indeed end up rigged but not by the Bush admin. That would be an interesting October Surprise (well in Feb.).

Just my 2 cents... but I figure Putin is really pissed about Ukraine.

if the * administration does not win but by chance if they don't heaven help our men and women stationed there because great strife will rise up from those who feel they are disinfranchised from the power. I suspect that Allawi will some how pull it off as in Florida 2000 and Ohio 2004. Afterall who collected all the votes and has control of them at all times. An objective outside agency or UN or a third Arab country? Dream on friend we have control of the ballots.

the WH is going to allow a government that is hostile to the United States to form in Iraq?

That's why the issue confuses me.

Longer has that kind of power or credibility. Remember, we have pissed off the entire planet, including our friends; we have no money (money=power) and in fact are in so much debt that the dolly is worth nothing; we have no military; and we have proven to the world that we are run on a faith based version of reality (faith in what I do not know, clearly not God); we also managed to support many horrific regimes in that area, especially the Al Sauds. So no, I don't think given the current climate there is much in the way of rigging anything other than our own election. I really think Iran and Putin stepped in as a little payback. Of course Condi must know that given her degree in Russian history (cough).

People are threatening to rise up! They are demanding a date for a US pullout. People are also PISSED OFF that the reconstruction is not happening as promised and that Iraqis are not getting contracts.

It is probably a LOT worse over there than they tell us.