Are the DEMS going to take over both houses in 2006?

I'd like to know what others on this board think.
Am I dreaming? Are the pubs in so much power
that we don't have a chance? Or is there some
possibility? Honest questions... would love
honest replies.

any other black box voting machine.

...I don't think we will get either back until at least 2008.

but that is one big hill to climb in just one election cycle. But I have hope. (Well, that plus my time, money and efforts to help make it happen.)

If anyone can prove me otherwise, i'd be glad to reconsider..but district lines are drawn..Texas was redistricted and I really don't see a way to take congress back unless there is some MAJOR headway made in districts where races are at least a bit competitive as was demonstrated by the run Delay got for his money in Texas.

The Senate MAY be possible but that is an uphill climb as well.

I am in a red, red, red area, and no one that I have talked to is in favor of SS "reform." Not the young, not the old. And in being in a red, red, red area, the Republican Party attack on our parents and grandparents is not going over big either. I have gotten more support for Senator Nelson, from both dems and repubs than you can imagine. I have hope for the first time that Nelson can win Florida, esp. if we can get Bob Graham out to speak for him.

Well at least kind of: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=108x118551

There is a list of all candidates that received less than 60% of the vote. 51 are Republicans and only 30 are Democrats. The Republican party is getting a lot of heat for the Social Security plan and I think some people are having 'buyer's remorse'. I think Democrats are becoming much more organized as well. Too little, too late for 2004, but I think we could see some big improvements for '06. We already have the advantage when it comes to who needs to be protected in the House and we have more Republicans we can go after.

As for taking the House in '06, a gain of 16 seats (which would give us a one seat majority I think) is questionable, but if you look over time, larger changes have happened. Up to 50 House seats have changed hands before.

I don't see it going any other way , but I can't believe anything anymore lol.

and since I personally am a flip-flopper, I might feel differently tomorrow. I don't think we have a snowball's chance in hell. Not that we should give up or not run... I don't think we know what we're up against. I don't think we know our enemy. I think we grossly misunderstand the Goliath we are up against. And how far they have taken over. It's not a two party system any more. Unless the people show solidarity. Rage against the machine. That Carl Rove is a brilliant soul-less genius. I don't think we have the stomach to beat them at their own game. I don't think we are ruthless enough.

:toast:

Gyre

Or if the Repukes' demon horns finally start to show.

I'm not very optimistic. These people have laid the groundwork for the last two decades of brainwashing the nation into believing they should vote against their best interests just because the Repukes scream "Jesus" louder than anyone else.

Baby steps, BBJ!

I think we have a shot at picking up a few House seats. If we get lucky, we may pick up 1 seat in the Senate.

I'm a pessimist, though.

...that the pendulum usually swings back. The public in every country grows bored with the status quo, and votes "the other" candidate in. It happens with political regularity.

black boxes thrown out!

Let's see how the pendulum swings.

He was holding NOTHING back in blasting Senator Byrd's elegant
speech today in the senate. To make matters even worse, he
had Ann Coulter on as well. Another media whore. It never
ceases to amaze me how disgraceful and downright evil Republicans
can be. It sickens me. I can be fair to some people I know
who are Republicans. However, it seems it is not a part of
their makeup. I use to be able to allow others to have their own opinions without attacking them personally; no more. I have
learned to HATE Republicans, I am very sad to say. There is no
dignity left in the Republican party. Shit. I feel like moving
to another country. Maybe Denmark, Ireland or God knows where.
Excuse me while I go barf.

Why are you pinning hopes on a criminally corrupt system that has failed you time and time again?

Rarely do I scorn a series of people posting, but the assessments I'm seeing on this thread so far are on the whole wrongheaded. They do tell you why Democrats aren't at this moment moving up in the polls, though- too much whining acquiescence to powerlessness and lack of unity on principles, failure to do rigorous analyses and a need to blame other people, throughout the grassroots and to a significant degree the problem in the upper tiers. This while Republicans continue to lose hold on power.

Right now neither Republicans nor Democrats deserve majorities. But Republicans continue to have them as a kind of default, in the absence of presentable and coherent Democratic purposefulness.

Democrats have the support of the 15-20% swing voters on social and economic policies. Republicans have them on leadership, and a slim (but shrinking) majority of them on foreign policy and military affairs. Republican power is thus very sensitive to breakup of the fragile state of things in Iraq and, parallel to it, further breakup of their Coalition- if Britain were to bail out, the jig is up. If that were to happen then they become extremely vulnerable to scandals and ethics problems. There is a pretty big contingent of Republicans- 7-12%- that isn't bound to that Party due to strong prejudices/'religion' (28%) or being part of the CEO/management benefiting class (5-10%). These are the 'moderates', who are watching their Party run off into scurrilousness and extremisms, and when the foreign policy and integrity excuses fail Team Cheney/Rumsfeld/Falwell they'll be looking for a new party to join. One that contains people who have coherence and logic and generosity and a strong sense of measure.

About a year from now we should know whether these people are going to leave the Other Side or not. They're not exactly happy about staying. On the other hand, the Emotionalocrats who fill DU with ravings and irrational optimisms and pessimisms and lack of Constancy and scattershot ideals and unresolved conservatisms are exactly what annoys them about Democrats, that convinces them that Democrats are too dysfunctional and unfocussable to serve their own purposes, let alone the country's. Everyone except Democratic activists and leaders want Democrats to be the Party of consistent Modern values, equal protection enforcements, and pragmatic, hardnosed, political service in general.

At the moment I think we're looking at small gains in the Senate- 1 or 2 seats. In the House it's gains on the order of ~5 seats. All of that basically due to Republicans being maxed out in the South and shrinking north of the Mason-Dixon line.

A year from now we should have a reversal of the Texas re-redistricting, putting at least 1 or 2 Texas seats back in Democratic hands in '06 and Tom DeLay facing an Ethics inquiry in the House. We should be seeing a lot of Republican retirements and problems in Republican districts in gerrymanders, bringing things up to 20-30 seats in play with most of them in Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Connecticut. The Senate picture is actually more cloudy for the time being, but if moderate Republicans begin to desert in real numbers (as the progressive Republican policy breakdown suggests they should- if Democrats get their act together) then all the Blue State senator races are easily Democratic victories and the swing state ones should tip the same way.

The problem is that we really only have enough information to look a short distance ahead, and the electorate may concievably be moving faster than we estimate now or in the next few months. Appearances are strangely deceptive at the moment- nothing seems to be changing even though there is a lot of energy being expended and minds are being changed in some way. And, as the Iraqi elections have shown, there is a serious grappling with and indulging in denial evident in pollings- which suggests that public opinion is raw and sensitive and emotionally unstable, which in turn usually means a serious shift lies some weeks or months ahead.

Wishing it, won't make it so ... and denial of it, won't make it go away.

Don't let it get you down, though.

letters that survive from soldiers in the Union army as they're chasing Lee's and three days from the Confederate surrender at Appomattox Court House. They all contain something said along these lines: "Even the croakers among us are finally silent, because rack their brains as they may even they can't see how Bobby Lee is going to reverse our victory and ruin us now."

Don't let me, or any objective improvement of the Democratic situation, distract you from your Manichaean sense of gloom and doom. The day when things improve will never come, flowers will stop blooming in the spring time, birds will stop singing, the rainbows will stop being colorful and beautiful, people will stop falling in love, enforcement of the Law of Gravity will cease due to budget cuts and loose objects get flung into orbit, upon which the sun will explode (in several hundred million years time), and the Universe will expand outward and cool off a few billion later, at which point it's all over except for a possible recontraction.

Ignorant denial and happiness...pessimistic nihilism and pretense to relevant knowledge- gee, which one would make me happy, and which one would make me just feel useless?

you put into this post. Dare I say it's the most intelligent post
I have read since first becoming a member of this board. You are
definitely a force to be reckoned with. Thanks for your input.
You surely gave me a lot to chew on. I hope to be able to read more
of your insightful posts in the future. This party sure needs more
people of your caliber. How refreshing it is to come across someone
of your wisdom and depth. Most refreshing. Carpe Diem.

Sincerely,
John

Thank you for your cogent analysis. As liberals, it's tremendously easy to feel despondent at the current political situation; it serves to obfuscate a reasoned look at political causalities, and narrows the perspective of those affected.

Some may fear a Diebold-ization of all future elections, but those individuals must consider the invisible line drawn in every mind - Republican, Democrat, Green, Libertarian - that delineates a standard of ethics and behaviour to which our government must uphold. Right now, the efficacy of propaganda seems to be wearing thin - at least with the "how does it affect me?" issues, such as Social Security reform. No amount of tampering will stand up to the growing outcry against these machines and the minority of manipulators who choose to shape circumstances to their liking.

It will reach its crux, and the grumbling will turn into shouts of disapproval. We simply must give it time. Many of those "red states" simply would not approve of much of what is being done in their names, and they will eventually discover the profundity of the greatest American con job.

All it takes is one twitch of unanimous disapproval, and these criminals will be forced to run for the hills.

For your time taken to compose this post, the thought that went into it and the words that you wrote. I hope many people take the time to read and digest it.

Look around at the disillusioned * voters.

Everyone I see that voted * are saying "oops"

Idiots that they are.

Those machines have worked very well for the repuke party. They aren't going anywhere. We will never again have control of Congress. The ONLY way to get rid of the machines is to PROVE outright FRAUD by the repukes. Unless that is done, we will never pick up a majority of seats.

Sorry, the Deibold/EPV voting noise gets tedious now. There's an election in 18 months and the campaigns are already underway...at least many of the Repugnicans are. Many Democrats are still going through a 2004 hangover and time's wasting.

Democrats have never had more issues to run FOR, as well as against, yet many local and state parties are still hurting for organization and people. We're not gonna win red and purple areas when we're outmanned and under-funded.

I see a lot of people waiting or just plain bitching when this should be the time to organize and coordinate...build up local parties and demand the national party to be more responsive and aggressive.

As long as the Repugnicans...and especially DeLay...remain in control of the house, we will have problems. Retaking the house has to be a major priority next year and the work to do that has to start now. As one who worked in a campaign last year that barely got any funding until the final weeks and sees a re-election that will be tougher than the last election, I'm not feeling very good about what I'm seeing.

yes or no
Am I dreaming?

With Social Security as an issue in Florida and other districts the House is in play with the right candidates and the resources , it can be won.

Due to partisan gerrymanders there are very few swing districts as compared to a decade ago. This makes taking back the House very difficult.

As for the Senate, there are more Democrats up for reelection than Republicans. Add to that the fact that some of these Democrats are from red states.

There used to be a trend that the President's party would lose seats during midterm elections, but that has not happened during the past two. The President's party has actually gained seats in both 1998 and 2002.

We, Democrats, Progressives, Greens, those who care about this country need to pick one house and win. I hate to say this but the Senate is just plain out of reach in this cycle. The House is the way to go. There are opportunities in the Mid-West, South, South-West, all across the board. Issues like the Debt and Social Security should give us the chance. We need one toe hold so we can start to take back the country. Look at what that nut Dan Burton was able to do with the power of the Government Affairs Committee.

The House is the place and this cycle is the time. We only need to hold what we have in the Senate. This is not the cycle to pick it back up. This does not mean that people like Santorum should not be challenged and beaten but we need to look at what is realistic and go for broke in the House.

it MUST be done!! We just need the creative thinkers
who believe in the passions of the common man... someone
who can raise them to stand!!!

if those working on voting reform issues we do. If Bush does enough damage to scare them away.

2006 is the where we make or break it... If we can put the brakes on this disaster-master administration in '06.. we might get something done about those damn machines and central tabulators..

But we have to go in big (MUCH harder to steal) and we have to start NOW.

:bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce:
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Anyone here who is saddled with a repug house rep should be looking around for a 'new' Democrat...

Better think of fixing our corrupt election system first so that your vote counts.

Howard Dean is going to help tremendously. I get excited from time to time but the huge scope of '04 election inconsistencies and likely stolen votes keeps me grounded. I'd like to see some wholesale voting changes. Need to trust the system first, because we likely won seats in '04 that weren't credited.
Election/voting reform first. Sound the call. Then the seats will fall our way by the boatload.

Far greater things have been done.