If gasoline was $10 per gallon, would this be a good thing or bad thing?

On the other hand, is life as we know it all that great?

It would be good to finally force Detroit and their cousins to finally make some fuel efficient cars.

Otherwise everyone who depends on it as an energy source is literally screwed.

They didn't respond back in the 70's. They could have seen as early as the late 60's that an oil crunch was coming. So when it hit in the 70's with rationing and high (for that era, I'd LUV me some $1 gas now)gas prices, Detroit went into knee-jerk catch-up mode, and for "Economy" cars, we got the ugly little POS dangerous "Econobox" cars.

OPEC and the House of Saud get their dicks sucked to their satisfaction, and the gas tap gets turned back on. Does Detroit continue to develop and refine fuel-efficient vehicles?

Fuck, no. They give us the Explorer, the Escalade, the Hummer, H-2, and if that's not enough, you can buy a Navistar CXT.

Gas hits $100 a gallon? Watch Detroit take the auto industry to where it was in its infancy. Hand-built play toys for the obscenely wealthy.

The rest of us? Go rent the "Mad Max" series to get an idea what awaits.

Rest of the mini-rant is spot-on, though....

If the price spike were not permanent, but if it lasted long enough to bring about meaningful political change, I think I would be willing to take the short-term pain.

Virtually EVERY cent of the increase is PROFIT to the producer ... including domestic companies.

If there weren't price controls and rationing before it hit $10/gallon, then riots in the streets should be expected as a reasonable response to a government complicit in the profiteering.

I disagree, I believe it has. Everything from salaries, health and liability insurance, to energy needed to pump, transport, refine and distribute has increased, as has the price of crude itself. Refining costs have consistently increased due to rules the government has imposed for gasoline additives for summer and winter fuels. The domestic gas and oil companies have been consolidating their operations (divesting the corporations of non-profitable refineries and storage facilities, drastically downsizing workforce, outsourcing work) when feasible and economical.

This is not to say that the oil companies aren't making money. They are making a ton of money. I'm just responding to your assertion that the production cost hasn't risen, because it has in many areas.

The price of gas has gone up, and the government has done nothing to reduce the tax per gallon that we all pay. I don't recall what it is here in my area of NY, but in Virginia, it was approximately 50 cents per gallon. Imagine that :)

there is no public transportation.

That would suck large for me.

You would have to live in a cinder block high-rise next to work site unless you were one of the elite who owned the business. High up politicians could also live where they want because the citizens would be paying for their gasoline like we pay everything else for them.

perhaps I could stay at one of the sororities..:evilgrin:

You get used to it ;-)

European countries built up, not out. I could bicycle to work in Germany and it was not a problem, as it would be in the US, to be whiffy through the day because of it (temps were cooler too, which helped with that). When I needed groceries, there were shops within walking distance. And going into town to the department stores was an 40-Pfg Straßenbahn ride and even cheaper if I bought a card.

from your work, 65 miles from next groceries or 150 miles from next downtown?

Not all of us can afford living in the city. Not all of us can afford living right next to where we work. I know this makes me a horrible person, but I'd rather not pay $1400 a month in rent.

Throughout my career, there were only 1 3-year and 2 2-year periods when I was able to live fewer than 30 miles from where I worked.

If someone works retail, or as a clerk in an office, then maybe it's possible to get a job nearby. But for someone who works in a specialised role in a specific industry--in my case as an engineering manager in the computer industry--there isn't an installation in every town. And jobs tend to evaporate under Capitalism.

I mean, doi, the dollar is plummeting faster then Wile E Coyote on crack.

I am never all black or white.I think the country in the long run would face the facts we have to do some thing, which we do but it is hard to face that fact. I guess every one would sure sell off their costly toys fast to buy gas and a good percent would be just out of work. As an old person I can give up driving but if you were in the work force I do not know what you would do. Hardly seems to be a congressman brave enough to do one thing.

If there were alternate modes of transportation in place, it would be a good thing. People would have to use them.

If that price just appeared at the pumps one day, the results would be catastrophic. Something that critical to most people's livelihood takes some time to adjust to.

So a $10 per gallon would destroy my family. Even for a short period of time I would lose everything!

I get goose bumps just thinking about it, Russ would get some shit done and kick some Repuke ass in the process!!!

(not necessarily Hybrids) get excellent mileage if you must travel long distances.

No, I hope IF we can make exceptions for Construction and other labor type worker's vehicles, that gas goes WAY WAY up to at least $10.

Our troops are dying for these selfish people sucking up all the fuel in their SUVs. Usually there's only one or two people in these monsters. That really peeves me off.

When we reinstate the draft, perhaps we should send those that drive these gas hogs only for "show off" FIRST to fight for OUR precious addition to the oil in the Middle East?

Better to start planning now than wait until later.

... because it is coming, it is only a question of whether it is 2, 5, or 10 years away.

It would bring about investment in to alternative fuels and
energies.

it would be horribly destructive to virtually everyone. I don't know how we'd make it to the 'long term' benefits.

... and you've touched on the real problem.

Science and technology WILL solve the energy problem, but like big companies, government only funds solutions to crises.

Nobody is really trying to find a way to live without oil because everyone still thinks that oil will be there for decades.

I doubt that it will, but when the "oil shocks" really come for real, and they will within only a few years, then and only then will we get serious about something other than trying to find drilling methods to get the last 10% out of a well.

The disruption and economic consequence would be staggering. People have to get to work. People have to stay warm. Goods have to move, people have to move. The disruption would put a sizable chunk of people over the edge.

So the automakers would be forced to make everything more fuel efficient. The only ones that would be able to afford it would be the rich because everyone else would be wiped out in the meantime (if not for gas prices, everything else as you wouldn't be able to afford electricity, heat, food, or anything else).

Unless some massive uprising occurred to make employers pay more to make up for it (that of course, assuming they didn't fire everyone/close up shop because nobody could afford their product/service anymore), $10 gasoline would be THE END for anyone other than *'s "wealth class"

Its not soooo bad. When the petrol price gets high, the rules of
economics that are currently suspended by false subsidies on behalf
of the american military, come back in to play, and ride sharing,
smaller cars, being conservative with journeys and all that stuff start
to come in to play. Where i live, gas prices are over 5 dollars per
gallon, and it does indeed affect glib car usage... its not so destructive
as you make out.

As well, heating and other energy usages have many alternatives from
green architecture, to improving insulation... all of which are
ignored by the market because they are not economically significant,
so people rather waste fuel. When these factors become economically
significant, they'll create a ton of jobs, lead to fuel savings AND
spur new technologies development.

We landed a man on the moon, surely we can learn to heat a house
and drive a car at 100mpg.

for those of us taking care of families and working in this world, it would be very harsh medicine that could well kill the patient before curing him.

We take care of family and work in this world at 5+ per gallon without
the dire prediction you're making. When it happens, ya deal with it,
its not such a big hooba. Some people who've set their lives up for
a cheap petrol future, have clearly made a bad bet and a poorly
considered investment in the future. "caveat emptor", as they say
in the stock market. It was a bet after all, and why should we
dramatize it when some people have placed their bets poorly?

I agree, that part of the function of government is to keep its citizens
from making systemic bad bets, and then clearly that everyone has made
a long punt on "standard oil & companies" offering cheap products as
the basis of their lives, is no different than haveing set up one's
life on the basis of enron... and all the sympathy that went out for
those poor enron familes losing jobs and all.

shopping is a 30 mile round trip. My doctor is a 40 mile round trip.

We keep a flat near the customer site, as our commute is nigh 600 miles.
Shopping (nearest supermarket) is a 45 mile round trip
The doctor is close, a 5 mile round trip, but any hospital
is either a 45 mile or 230 mile round trip.

Rural living in britain is a luxury. I suspect that the blue/red
map of ameirca will change as the future progresses, with the cities
increasingly blue and the rural areas increasingly red just as in
britain, with the tory party (read: rich country toffs).. for precisely
that reason... and yet i'm still flabberghasted at the massive range
rovers i pass on the road... so clearly 5+ per gallon does not deter
the rich from the less than 10mpg cars.

American culture discounts distance more than any culture i've seen on
earth, suggesting that, like bush says, that it'll hurt the economy to
not discount distance and transport. Maybe, like with everything else,
bush is wrong, and that we should be adjusting now for an inevitable
shock. It does not mean we can't stay rural, but that we must pay
the true cost in money and in blood.

As the discount disappears, more people, i suspect will discover the
value of the "pie da tierre" (foot on the earth)(apartment/flat in town).

How about all those people who can't get to work? All that food that can't be delievered? Etc....

I currently pay over 5 dollars per gallon. It makes me wish for an
even more fuel efficient car. My current car gets about 25Mpg. If
fuel went to 10 per gal., i'd get a car getting 50mpg and life would
go on.

Fuel efficiency would cover much. As well, economics dictates that
many other forms of fuel would become cost effective. Suddenly it would
pay to add another 6 inches of insulation to the house to save heating
oil when current economics simply say to waste the heat.

You paint it black and white, but if you go hang out in europe where
gas prices are already going towards the price you mention, you'll
find much smaller, fuel efficient cars, and people making much more
considerate use of them. As well, when the price goes up, certain
sources of oil that are currently too expensive to drill, will suddenly
become economically feasible, and the supply will increase. In canada
alone, there is enough oil in the sand/shale to last 100 years, but
extraction is too expensive given current retail prices... but as the
price goes up, these supplies suddenly come on line.

Will suddenly be able to dig up $25,000 from the back yard to replace the car? The people around here sure as heck couldn't (me included)

And insulating the house wouldn't do any good for me...propane is priced inversely proportional to usage. Low usage gets sacked with the highest rates per gallon.

You can always install a different heating system using either
electric, coal, wood, (insulation as well) and others. The economics
of propane sound like a bad call for heating... but is that really
a fault of expensive petrol at the pump? Rather it sounds like
ridiculous pricing inspiring no conservation.

Reversing the artificial american economics of big cars and bigger
cars and massive SUV's will hurt... no argument... but it will not
stop people form living, working jobs and getting about... just things
'll have to chnage.

The problem lies more with the fact that the consumer is currently
artificially insulated from the real price of petrol. In fact, the full
real price should include all the wars, and all the government subsidies
going in to gasoline based industry. That this could happen all at
once, is only a sign of pathetically bad government, (which is what
brings us together in the first place). Good government would already
be giving consumers "wormsign" as is being done in western europe where
cars are remarkably smaller than in the US, and with the increased
gas price, consumers are able to take time to adapt their appreach
towards fuel consumption.

If the price hits 10 bucks a gallon, imagine how cheap those giant
humvees and 3500 dodge ram trucks will become on the second hand market... heck, people will be able to buy a giant pickup to use as
a garden planter.... economics will see the end of the stupidity
today... just a smarter planner would prepare the public for the
shock... rather bush is just a fucking idiot, so its gonna be more
like driving in to a cement barrier.

$10/gal would require an oil price of $300/bbl or above. Even with peak oil that oilk price is not possible because it would destroy demand and make about any alternative fuel much less expensive.

And even much more modest price rises - like $4-$5/gal - would need time to materialize. Enough time to do at least some adjusting.

Ask a junkie, they can tell ya

The USA is "No. 1" in nothing but weaponry, consumer spending, debt, and delusion.
http://207.44.245.159/article8191.htm

unless you don't think we need an economy.

Hard to think about long-term, when the short-term effects would be so dire.

I'd love to see the spirit of invention and entrepreneurism solve this problem for us, rather than price shocks.

But then, I'd also love to hit the lottery jackpot and live in slothful luxury on an island with all my friends and family.

Hasn't happened yet. :D

.. bad if it stayed the same.

cars and sedans. It would be wonderful being able to back out of a parking space in a crowded lot and NOT have to say a prayer. Your vision is 100% blocked by that Dawg TANK of the SUV next to you ... one has no idea as we oh soo carefully inch back-wards if someone is speeding through the lane.

I despise *all* SUVs and BIG PICK-UP TRUCKS with NO useful purpose (driven by fat lazy slobs that never use them for hauling - but just for looks) ... controversial opinion I know - but an honest one. :smoke:

And some of us drive big pickups because we are agricultural producers, and we live out in the country. You might think it would be a good thing for you and yours until you go grocery shopping and hamburger is 15 dollars a pound and onions are 3 dollars per bulb.

I wish it to harm agriculture. I have dozens of cousins back in the farmland plains of South Dakota who must depend on their John Deere's.

I knew I was being contentious ... just driving home a point. Excuse if it sounded "all encompassing" because I did tag on a couple of qualifiers.

... so debating whether or not it will be a good or bad thing is kind of besides the point. The better question is, what do you do to prepare for it?

There will be many people absolutely crushed by this. Many don't deserve it, either. I wish I could say something that would make things better for them, but I'm afraid I can't.

I consider myself fortunate in that I will be moving to a small town in a rural area in the next couple of years, and will be in a position to grow a lot of our food. Also, there's always hunting for game up in that area as well.

In the long run, it will simply force people to use gas more consciously, and cause current models of development to come to a screeching halt. It would be nice if we could move toward smarter growth models in order to avoid these problems, but unfortunately the developers aren't too fond of that since it cuts into their sacred profit margins.

Assuming the average SUV driver probably spends $2k / yr on fuel today (figuring 15,000 miles driven, $2 gallon of gas, and 15MPG). So if it went to $10, they'd trade that in on a hybrid sedan or wagon, and get 40 MPG, and probably drive less (some car pooling or public transportation usage, better planning of car usage, errand consolidation etc.), so they might spend $3k / yr on fuel (12,000 miles driven, $10 per gallon, 40MPG).

Alternatives to plastic would be more attractive (metal, wood, natural fibers, etc.).

Shipping and transportation would be hugely impacted. Trains and trolleys would be economically feasible. Probably less semi trucks, and more localized production.

Sounds like a good thing, overall.

the suburbs would die - without AC the mcmansions would be uninhabitable

food would get very expensive - no more strawberries in november

guns would be used - not just for hunting

so yeah, it would be good

eventually

....if cars get 300 mpg, or run on something else, as do home air con and appliances, and all the factories in America, then it's not a bad thing.

Gotta keep those Hummers gassed up and the oil companies financing the politicians.

incomes even be able to get to the grocery store?

At $2.15/gallon here it is bad enough . . . each trip to town costs me a gallon of gas, in a car that gets more than 30 miles to the gallon.

At $10.00 per trip to buy groceries, I couldn't afford to buy food . . . :cry:

becuase according to uncle Greenspin... gas is not included in the core inflation numbers. Therefore it would not be a sign of inflation and all will be well.

:eyes:

welcome to the new economy!


taught.

we couldn't afford to drive our cars so most of us would lose our jobs. We couldn't afford food that had been trucked in from other parts of the country. The cost of heating oil would go higher than the $2.00 a gallon we're currently paying ($500 per delivery, one delivery a month in winter)so those of us without wood-burning stoves would freeze to death. And the question was good or bad??????

The poor would really be fscked. They couldn't afford the gas, couldn't just run out & buy a better, more fuel-efficient car, can't just pop solar panels on their apartment, etc.

---

"Prosperity is just around the corner." -- Herbert Hoover
"The economy has turned a corner." -- GW Bush

Herbert Hoover = GW Bush

Neither man cared about the Depression their economic policies created.