Australian news: World in 'grave danger' from bird flu

Thank goodness Bush is pushing a 60 city tour to "save Social Security"!

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March 5, 2005

Scientists warn tens of millions may die if more is not done to contain the unpredictable virus.

The global avian flu pandemic is coming, and it's a case of when, not if. Even as they counsel people not to panic but to "be prepared", scientists are warning that tens of millions may die.

A year ago, the World Health Organisation was playing down the threat to humans of bird flu, officially influenza A (H5N1) virus, Z strain. But at a bird flu conference last week in Vietnam, Shigeru Omi, WHO Western Pacific regional director, said: "The world is in the gravest possible danger of a global pandemic."

Why this fuss for a virus that has killed about 60 people and 1.5 million chickens (with 140 million more culled)? This compares with the human death toll for the severe acute respiratory syndrome virus, SARS, which was 774. There are two reasons: confirmation of the first probable human-to-human transmission of the virus and a mortality rate for infection of 75 per cent. Only ebola (50 per cent mortality) and rabies, slightly higher, can come close to it. The SARS rate was 9.6 per cent.

http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2005/03/04/1109700677241.html?oneclick=true

If we survive being reduced to beggary by Bush's bankruptcy and SS policies, if we don't get sent to Iraq and shot to pieces, if Al Qaeda doesn't stroll through our unguarded ports and blow us to smithereens, we can all die of bird flu.

What was the point? lol

that this has happened?

The family member in primary care of the chickens and ducks transmitted it to two family members who had little or no contact with the birds.

Ebola has about a 90% death rate. Rabies is 100%. The two people who have survived rabies are statistically negligible. It is generally not a survivable illness.

What needs to be done to contain it? I remember reading that in less than 6 mos after human to human occured, it would have spread throught the world...if not seriously contained...and then it may be too late to really contain it once transmittion occured...so..that it really must be stopped immediately..how would that be done?

this might be a watershed moment," WHO spokesman Peter Cordingley said in Manila.

Vietnam said on Thursday it has appealed for international help in its desperate battle against a rapidly spreading outbreak of bird flu which has killed 13 people in the past month and may have crossed into Cambodia.

The WHO already fears the virus may have reappeared in Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar, all poor countries where surveillance systems are weak at best.


http://www.boston.com/news/world/asia/articles/2005/02/...




Domenech said affected countries will need hundreds of millions of dollars from donors to sustain a prolonged fight against the disease.

Host Vietnam, where bird flu resurfaced in 35 of 64 provinces, has ramped up surveillance systems and imposed tough restrictions on poultry movements.

But like many poor countries hit by bird flu, it has limited knowledge of the virus, its veterinary staff need training and its labs are poorly equipped.

Nearly 140 million birds have been slaughtered or died in the Asian epidemic, and the financial cost is already up to $10 billion, according to some estimates.

http://www.boston.com/news/world/asia/articles/2005/02/...

the case in Thailand last September:

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2004_09_28a/en/

That virus didn't seem to be easily transmissable, but look at the WHO link I posted below to see what could happen.

at some Asian market. The store owner said it's not his fault, the box was marked "jellyfish"...that's how easy this can spread in today's world.

because no one can stay isolated. Our situation is unprecedented in history, and we need to be very careful.

An airborne disease with nearly 100 percent mortality could have effects that have never been seen on earth.

Much greater chances of diseases spreading.

Gotta be a down side somewhere, eh?

Of the 15 avian influenza virus subtypes, H5N1 is of particular concern for several reasons. H5N1 mutates rapidly and has a documented propensity to acquire genes from viruses infecting other animal species. Its ability to cause severe disease in humans has now been documented on two occasions. In addition, laboratory studies have demonstrated that isolates from this virus have a high pathogenicity and can cause severe disease in humans. Birds that survive infection excrete virus for at least 10 days, orally and in faeces, thus facilitating further spread at live poultry markets and by migratory birds.

The epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza caused by H5N1, which began in mid-December 2003 in the Republic of Korea and is now being seen in other Asian countries, is therefore of particular public health concern. H5N1 variants demonstrated a capacity to directly infect humans in 1997, and have done so again in Viet Nam in January 2004. The spread of infection in birds increases the opportunities for direct infection of humans. If more humans become infected over time, the likelihood also increases that humans, if concurrently infected with human and avian influenza strains, could serve as the “mixing vessel” for the emergence of a novel subtype with sufficient human genes to be easily transmitted from person to person. Such an event would mark the start of an influenza pandemic.

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/en/

So far it isn't highly transmissable from human to human, but it sounds like the worst thing ever to happen if this virus picked up genes from human influenza.

Edited:

Here is what WHO recommends to prevent the HSN1 virus from picking up genes from human influenza virus:

Current vaccines, when administered to high-risk groups, such as poultry cullers, protect against circulating human strains and thus reduce the risk that humans at high risk of exposure to the bird virus might become infected with human and avian viruses at the same time. Such dual infections give the avian and human viruses an opportunity to exchange genes, possibly resulting in a new influenza virus subtype with pandemic potential.

Why do I think the best place to be for the next year is Pt. Barrow, Alaska or something :)