What will be outcome of Bush's war with Iran?

it will lead to his impeachment.

These ass-kissers will face the Rapture of Asian shockwaves with locked open eyelids and shit-eating grins if Der Fuhrer and Cheney told them to.

I'm going on the assumption that people will not put up with having yet greater numbers of Americans sent off to die and kill throughout the whole of the Mid-East.

That is, they will honor constituent's requests if the Congress members want to maintain their seats in an election.

Oh, wait, DIEBOLD. Never mind.

Oh, right, they already have done that over Iraq.

Sending an army into Iran is like Napoleon/HItler sending their respective armies into Russia in the winter. The only way to defeat them is with nukes and if *moron does that, then the rest of the world will completely turn against us....

fucking country until Bush has spread out troops out so thin that the terrorists will all have to come to America to hide out. That's when the shit really hits the fan. And of course the kids fed up with the mullahs will fight against the occupation by America. More suicide bombings, more lives lost, more bullshit excuses as to why we will fight them, more bullshit in general will be ALL we hear for the next 4 years.

Iran will retaliate through the world of oil. Iran will kick some serious butt in the Straits of Hormuz, which will effectively "blockade" shipping of oil from the Saudis and the Emirates. Since they not only are working with China to develop their new oil fields, and are working with Venezuela to help them sell to China, they are already making an impact. U.S. policies have been so anti-Iranian that it has effectively isolated the 2nd largest reserve-holding nation.

Our economy will definitely be affected -- everyone in the U.S. will be affected not only at the pumps but in all levels of industry/consumerism.

that there will be a war in Iran? Seriously, and as none partisan as possible, what are the REAL chances?

The best you can do is look at the individual factors that contribute to whether we will wind up fighting Iran. I'll list the ones I know:

Things that bring us closer to war:

- Petrodollar Hegemony. As the Euro emerges as a stable and trustworthy currency, it provides an alternative to the Dollar. Currently, the dollar is the world's reserve currency - the main currency. Oil prices everywhere are pegged to the dollar, which means you NEED dollars to buy oil. You need dollars to make many trades in the world today. The rest of the world has a vested interest in possessing dollars, and thus in keeping them valuable. This provides the U.S. with a kind of blank check, since it can print unlimited dollars at its sole discretion. If the dollar falls as the world reserve currency, it throws a lot of economic woe onto the U.S. Iraq began trading oil in Euros in 1999.

- Geopolitical Strategy. Our foreign policy is currently very similar to that of a group called Project for a New American Century, many members of which hold positions of power in our government. Their goals are to prevent any rivals, enemies, or even allies from rising in power to potentially challenge the U.S. Currently, we lack presence in the middle east. Iraq is part of our new "footprint" in the region, where we are building 14 permanant U.S. military bases. Whether to gain more turf or simply to show off our power in the region, a war with Iran would fit this strategy nicely - at least, if you believe such a war could be "won" in a non-pyhrric sense.

- Nukes. We don't want Iran to have nukes. They say they're not researching nukes. I don't trust them, but I also find it nearly impossible to trust U.S. intelligence these days.

- Israel. A powerful U.S. presence in the mideast is good for israel. Our leadership thinks that a war would increase our presence/power.

Things that prevent us from going to war:

- Troops. We don't have enough. My point of view, of course.

- Cost of "victory". Even if we won, it would be at far greater cost than almost any possible benefit. Again, my point of view.

- Reasons for war. We don't have any. The international community will not trust our grainy satellite photos of purported nuke facilities, or our supposed knowledge of the clandestine workings in Iran. The same goes for many people at home.

- Syria-Iran mutual defense agreement. They have one. Going to war with one could very possibly mean going to war with both. And if that happens... who knows what else it would lead to?

Double-edged Swords:

- Oil deals. Iran has cut lucrative deals to supply various countries with oil, including China, India, and Russia. This is a double edged sword because a need for oil could cause us to attack Iran and install a friendly government which would trade more with us. Our gung-ho government could also do this to show that we don't care about those other countries because we're so powerful. We would cut them off from the oil they need to gain power and potentially challenge us.

However, the other countries would not like this. They have many ways to hurt us, both militarily and economically.

We are the only country that has used them. Just because we don't like the Iranians and they don't like us doesn't mean that they are so stupid they would lob a nuke at us since they know we have enough to heat up every square inch of their country to a million a couple of hundred times. Before the mushroom cloud of the bomb they launched at us had formed, there would no longer be an Iran.

We have let the neocons overstate the danger of others having nukes. The primary danger is it makes them harder to push around and invade because they level the playing field.

It's closest to what I think will happen.

The end of the US as a superpower would be another possibility. Reinstating the draft is another.

The problems with occupying Iraq would be compounded in Iran. In Iraq, we see that many oppressed people will prefer their own brutal tyrant over somebody else's. The Iranian Islamic republic is not what I would call democratic, but it is a milder form of government than Saddam's police state. If Iraqis didn't welcome US "liberators" freeing them from Saddam, what makes anybody think Iranians are going to through roses in the path of US troops marching toward Tehran?

Iran has three times the territory and about that many more people than Iraq. Bush has 150,000 troops on occupation duty in Iraq and it will take quite a few more to occupy Iran. With whose army is your favorite Frat Boy and mine going to do that?

...Sorry, "Mandatory National Service".
Made all the more mandatory by the ensuing economic Depression.
If Iran just happens to obtain a Pakistani nuke that would certainly (mitigate? aggravate?) that necessity.

As the showdown approaches someone in the fearless press, those "protectors and guardians of Democracy and Free Expression", should poll George 'Dubious' on just how literally that he accepts the fate of Revelations and Armageddon.

So we can at least prepare shelters. I don't think my plasma TV is going to fit down there.

Kerry should go to France (where he can't be arrested as an "enemy combatant") and issue an order as the REAL Commander-in-Chief that no one is to obey *'s orders. If you are a 25 year-old kid going to Iraq for your third tour, what would you do then?

but I think that kid and a lot of generals would listen.

up with Dubyah. I don't think the military vote numbers ever surfaced. Wonder why?

There is no doubt that the US military, even in its current stretched state, can bomb the shit out of Iran and destroy most of its military infrastructure with little human cost. On the other hand, occupying Iran would simply be impossible - a country with 2.5 times the population of Iraq, more than twice the size (I think)... you do the math. People talk about 'winning the peace' when they actually mean running an occupation, and if Iraq has taught us one thing, its that you can't run an occupation on the cheap.

Would China and Russia allow the US to occupy a large part of the world oil reserve? Would they go to war with us to grab a share or against us to block our monopoly? What about the rest of Europe? What would Pakistan or India do?

Worse possible thing is of course even if no other regional power does anything what surely will happen is the Shiite majority in Iraq will be just a pissed at us as the Sunni minority. If you thought the Iraqi violence now was bad just wait until we have less troops, less control and a more violent populace to control.

Personally I can’t see any Iranian war happening before the 2006 elections. Already with a horrible bankruptcy bill, a horrible malpractice bill and a terrible social security bill setting in Republicans arms a war with Iran could cost the Republicans congress. Heck of the democrats can’t make hey with the first three then American is brain dead.

Of course I am dreaming with the GOP controlling everything there is no chance of impeachment. I can almost guarantee there will be a draft though.

The public comes out of its mass psychosis and decides to vote democratic.

HOUSE...SENATE...PRESIDENCY....2008

just like this year.