John Paul's likely successor? Here's a list of 'papabili'

Who Will Be the Next Pope?

While few Vatican officials dare speak of a successor to the ailing John Paul II, several potential candidates have emerged. Having appointed all but 16 of the 123 members of the College of Cardinals, John Paul II has almost guaranteed that his successor will share his conservative philosophy. Some Vatican observers, however, predict the election of a candidate with more progressive views in order to mend the schism between liberal and orthodox Catholics.

Nationality may be another important consideration in the papal succession. The Polish John Paul II broke the Italians' near-500-year lock on the papacy, and growing Catholic populations in the Third World may focus attention beyond not only Italy but even Europe.

The consensus among speculators is that there is no likely American candidate, and an older cardinal -- who would serve a shorter term than John Paul's -- appears to be a probable choice. Here's a look at some of the possible candidates, from the leading contenders to the long shots:

http://www.time.com/time/daily/special/papacy/succession.html

I personally think his successor is likely to be a 'Third World' candidate.

i doubt he has a shot anymore.

the new pope wiLL come from africa.

:hi:

He'd be the first American pope. He's also one of the most conservative cardinals the Vatican has seen in decades -- he'd be a "twofer".

--p!

He has a shot, but he is extremely polarizing, just like W is. I'd rate his odds as 'less than favorable', personally.

:hi:

Either way, I do think his odds are a little higher than that. He's a favorite of JP2 and is the second-highest authority in the Church on doctrine. The College of Cardinals is likewise extremely conservative -- unless I missed some change in it over the past decade or so.

Yes? No? Or am I just clueless? :)

--p!

It's a terribly diverse body. While most cardinals would be described as 'theologically sound' (as one would expect), their other views are fairly diverse.

:hi:

Look at all the papers coming out of the Vatican re: Liturgy, kneelers, laity, Eucharist....Ratzinger is either writing or co-authoring them.

The Catholic Church is working towards going back to pre-Vatican II days... Ratzinger is the perfect Pope to continue the tradition...as backwards as that may be.

But he really is very conservative.

An Irish bookmaker is risking the displeasure of the Vatican by inviting punters to have a flutter on the identity of the next Pope.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/2540369.stm

Father Dougal McGuire of Craggy Island is on the list, but the odds are against him.

The BBC reported from Ireland this morning; Irish Catholics are sincerely praying for the Pope. But even some of them might want to make a small bet. The article you provided definitely seems to invite that response.

Though no longer a practicing Catholic, I wish the old gentleman a peaceful end. And I do hope for new blood in the papacy, not more "usual suspects" from the Vatican. With some adjustments, the Church could last another thousand years or so. Perhaps I'll put a bit of money on Cardinal Arinze.

Cardinal Arinze is well-liked, a diplomat, and a theological conservative; the reactionaries, the moderates and the liberals could all 'live with' him. Additionally, he is John Paul's best friend.

For the Laity as well as Rome. Unfortunately, the team I choose to "win" never does, and it is in fact usually the one I prefer the least that does-Ratzinger.

That sounds made up :P

...the company's website lists 15 clerics and their odds of becoming the next Pope. Most are serious contenders for the papacy, but the inclusion of Father Dougal McGuire of Craggy Island may come as a surprise to the Vatican. Television viewers will recognise him as the scatterbrained young priest in the Father Ted sitcom. He is the outsider at 1,000-1.

"People in Ireland are irreverent and we are just having a little fun," said Paddy Power, the company's operating executive.

"There has been plenty of interest all right, but no reaction from the Church. I don't think they would lower themselves by commenting on a bookmaker.

"I suppose we will find out on Judgment Day!"

It's at the link. Would the BBC lie?

except in Scooby Doo. There is also no person named "Father Dougal McGuire" outside of the movies. :+

Tis true.

...
The TV programme 'Father Ted' shown on Channel 4, is a sitcom set on the fictious 'Craggy Island' set off the west coast of Ireland. There are three main priests on the Island, Father Ted Crilly, Father Dougal McGuire and Father Jack Hackett, which have been banished there because of their failings in the priesthood. Also on the island is their housekeeper Mrs Doyle. Nothing really happens on Craggy Island, but the priests still manage to get into enough trouble...

(see photos here)
http://www.users.globalnet.co.uk/~warden/craggy/main.htm

he will be the first African pope in 1500 years. There have been three other African popes:Victor, Mechiades, and Gelasius.

Although, that would make it all very, very interesting . . .

Whoops.

Still, he'd be cool as the Pope.

And it would heal a split at the same time!

..how a black Pope would be received here. I think there are a few folks over here that would shit a brick if the Pope were black.

a white pope, or a pope who wiLL aggressiveLy fight against the eviLs of gayness?

On the whole, I think a black Pope would be well received. Archbishop Gregory (formerly head of the USCCB) was extremely well-liked and admired during his tenure.

IIRC, he's had personal experience with JPII.

This may be hard for him.

I hope I'm remembering correctly, or I may be embarrassing myself.
:blush:

You remember correctly. He's bearing up, but he's very sad.

:hi:

:hug:

I'm not Catholic, but I have a lot of respect for JPII.

It's a sad day for Christianity and the world in general.

I'll let him know.

:hug:

...I know a few folks here in my "red-state" locale would be uncomfortable with a black Pope. I wasn't necessarily referring to the nation as a whole.

With them.

Ratzinger has said that abortion is a more pressing issue than war.

I really don't want him at all, and will be terribly upset if he is chosen. I also have a feeling that whoever is the next pope will be a transitional figure, won't last very long, and after that guy will be our best shot at getting in a real reformer.

But what do I know, the college of Cardinals are a fickle bunch. I wasn't around in 78 but I don't think JPII was on the top of anyone's list before they met

I'm still looking through the list of others, but, thus far, he's a big "NO!" in my book.

Someone in his late 60's/early 70's who'll serve 10-15 years.

Pure, unvarnished speculation on my part with absolutely nothing to back it up.

There may be no 'faction with enough votes to elect one of their own outright so a compromise 'caretaker' could well be elected. It's happened before.

Could be VERY interesting. I'd think an increased focus on the realities of HIV/AIDS in Africa might play a part. I really can't see the next pope NOT backing off the condoms/birth control thing. It's just a rule that's too universally ignored. Other issues that an African pope might bring forth are social justice issues.

A Latino pope might tackle the issues of social justice a bit more.

An American or Aussie pope won't happen for a long time.

:shrug: It shall come to pass

The order is also known as the Olivetans.

Perhaps the College of the Cardinals has been using Malachi's "prophecies" as a guide for choosing the popes. Gloria Olivae points toward the Benedictine order ... or maybe a Pope who worked in an olive oil processing plant as a youth.

I looked up Arinze and I am quite impressed with his history. He would easily become an international "Spiritual Superstar" since he has spent most of his life engaged in interfaith dialog, notably with the Muslims. He leads the Vatican's Pontifical Council for Interreligious Dialogue.

There's an excellent precis about him published at the website of the Diocese of Vancouver, where he recently visited.

--p!

As bishop he sponsored a group of women who formed a Benedictine community but he remained in the secular clergy. The Olivetans are a congregation within the Benedictine Order. They are a subset of it not an alternative name.

Malachi is a load of crap and Arinze is quite reactionary. I'd root for Schonbrun.

Yes, I agree, he is a load of crap.

St. Malachy (also spelled St. Malachi) was an 11th century Irish bishop who drew up a list of over 260 popes in a "prophetic" work. The list has been uncannily accurate in many respects, but differing from its popular reputation, I don't think it's so much a prophetic document as a "leaked" group of instructions for choosing popes.

I'd never thought of Arinze as reactionary; a lot of people seem to find him too liberal for their tastes, but I do not have a lot of adverse information on him. However, he is either a Benedictine or is still closely associated with them. I'd seen that the "Olivetans" were an alternate name, not a sub-order, but I'll look deeper into it. I also have to read up on Schonbrun.

Anyhoo, thanks for the tips and corrections. It should be an interesting interregnum!

--p!

Pope was in his 60s when he was chosen.
On the list there are 2 cardinals in their
60s and one in his 50s. I think it will
be one of them.

Karol Cardinal Wojtyla was 58 when he was elevated to the papacy. Plus, a number of those old dudes are in excellent shape.

--p!

I forget their names, but one of the ones from Argentina? I'm thinking the Church may want to shore up their support in Central and South America.

for the College of Cardnials to choose one. The old rule from long ago for 3/4th agreement went out the window in 1996.

It will make things much more intresting.

Dionigi Tettamanzi
Age: 65
The archbishop of Genoa is highly favored in Italy. Elevated to cardinal in 1998, Tettamanzi is another relatively new member of the Sacred College. He is regarded as a moderate who may be able to mediate between liberals and conservatives.

The Brazilian, Lucas Moreira Neves, died in 2002 at the age of 76. I don't know where a more recent, updated list is available, though.