What's driving the stock market today?

Does it care that the pope may die? Maybe wall street should do an April's Fool and say it closed at 15,000.

Also, the AIG scandal is becoming worse than anyone thought and that hurts. Sometimes news like the Pope on the brink of death just dampens the mood.

sorto f dampen spirits too? A cold chill realizing that the economy isn't as strong as Snowjob and Greenspin are preaching?

does that drive prices up or down? I wonder if the pope has anything to do with it. I know oil going buck-nutty can't be helping.

Less upward pressure on wages and prices, less chance of inflation

though Robert Shiller showed that the links between "news" and stock market performance are tenuous at best.

The new edition of "Irrational Exuberance" is out, and worth a read.

Which is to say, not much.

Crude Oil, Gasoline Surge to Records as U.S. Fuel Supplies Fall
April 1 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil and gasoline surged to all- time highs on speculation that rising demand may outpace U.S. refinery production during peak demand this summer and strain global oil supplies.

Increasing fuel use and refinery maintenance have cut U.S. gasoline supplies during the last four weeks. The U.S. used an average of 8.9 million barrels of gasoline a day this year, up 2.2 percent from the same period in 2004, Energy Department data shows. Prices surged yesterday after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts predicted that oil could touch $105 a barrel.

``In March, April and early May gasoline dominates all of the energy markets,'' said Peter Beutel, president of Cameron Hanover Inc., a New Canaan, Connecticut-based energy consultant. ``The drop in product stocks offset an increase in crude oil inventories. Refiners have no intention of sitting on the crude oil but they have to get the refineries back up and running.''

Crude oil for May delivery rose $1.85, or 3.3 percent, to $57.25 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gasoline for May delivery climbed 6.69 cents, or 4 percent, to $1.73 a gallon in New York. Prices touched $1.736 a gallon, the highest since trading began in 1984.

New York crude oil touched $57.70 a barrel, the highest since trading began in 1983. The previous record of $57.60 was reached on March 17.

. . .

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=ajdzU5O.6XSE&refer=home

The Euro is not worth $1.29 and oil is at about $55/barrel. The benchmark US price per gallon has been around 5% of the price per barrel. With dropping dollar values the oil price could potentially hit $110 or so according to a new Goldman Sachs analysis.

Factoring in inflation from the 70's oil price highs the market figured a $90 per barrel price. This seems to contradict slightly, due to our conservation measures, but conservation is what got us out of the 70's and early 80's oil spikes.

Further messing things up is the US trade current accounts deficit and budget deficit.

We need to switch federal income taxation with state/local property taxation. This is my preferred method of tax reform: making federal spending difficult thru property taxation and easing up local spending thru income taxation; you would only have to switch 'employers'. Also, a local IRS would be more easily controlled and oversighted. Corporate taxation would be easier, too, since now all they want to do is 'offshore' their tax breaks.

They were expectng March Sales to be another decline - but - sales were up 2.3 percent. No one wants to see GM go down. It would have a huge effect on the economy.

Link: http://www.freep.com/news/latestnews/pm3539_20050401.htm

...showed only 117,000 new jobs when the projections were for 230,000? But then the same report said that the unemployment rate dropped 0.2% from 5.4% to 5.2%? Is bogus too polite of a word to use? These reported figures are really bogus.

So, why is Wall Street sliding into Bearish mode? Inflation is on the rise. Interest rates are on the rise. The U.S. dollar is heading further down relative to most other world developed countries' currencies. Consumer spending slowing. Import deficits are at record levels. Federal budget deficits are out of control. The administration has not economic plan to prevent the next recession, no plan to withdraw from Iraq, no plan to keep America from sliding into other wars it can't support. Go ahead, add to the list as far as the eye can see. Bush lies, no WMD, uncertainty about the economy, peace, spending, the administration, stocks are heading south, that's for sure. Whether they will go through a major correction, or head into free fall, who knows? But, there is very little good news out there to bolster people's confidence to invest.