We'd have to pay out over a $trillion in foreign IOUs.
Over time, the Asian exporting countries have been placing a big percentage of their exchange earnings into US Treasuries. The leader continues to be Japan, with China now the #2 foreign holder of US debt. Reportedly, China is shifting its portfolio away from US investments. The Saudis and other Gulf oil exporters bailed out of Treasuries a long time ago, and aren't even on the list anymore.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7294906/Who holds U.S. Treasury securities as of January, 2005
Amount in billions $ Percentage of foreign-held Treasury debt
Japan 701.6 36%
Mainland China 194.5 10%
United Kingdom 163 8%
Caribbean Banking Centers* 92.5 5%
Korea 67.7 3%
*Bahamas, Bermuda, Cayman Islands, et al.
(Source: US TREASURY DEPT)
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And, look where things stood ten, twenty years ago:
http://www.treas.gov/tic/shl94sum.htmlTable 5
Foreign Portfolio Investment in Long-Term Securities
Top 10 Investing Countries
(Amounts in $ Billions)
Country
1978
1984
1989
1994
Japan
12
28
180
230
United Kingdom
13
43
108
168
Germany
9
30
58
68
Canada
8
22
69
58
Switzerland
13
22
35
57
Middle East Oil Exporters
19
45
54
45
British West Indies
‘*’
2
7
37
Taiwan
‘*’
‘*’
13
35
Singapore
‘*’
6
13
34
Belgium
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
32
Rest of World
-
-
-
319
Unknown
‘*’
7
122
161
Total
99
268
847
1,244
Note: N.A. means no data is available
‘*’. means greater than zero but less than the minimum amount presented in the table
As can be seen, Japan and the United Kingdom have maintained their positions as the top portfolio investing countries in U.S. securities. However, the rate of growth for Japan has decreased significantly. Between 1984 and 1989, Japanese holdings increased from $28 billion to $180 billion, or over 500%. Between 1989 and 1994 their holdings increased by only 28%.
On the other hand, holdings of the Middle East Oil Exporting countries (Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) decreased from $54 billion to $45 billion. In 1984, these countries together held 17% of foreign holdings of U.S. long-term securities. By 1994, their holdings represented less than 4% of the total held by foreigners.
The Unknown line is largely Eurobonds held in bearer form for which no ownership information is available. The level of Eurobond holdings have increased significantly since the 1984 survey as the size and importance of the Eurobond market has increased.