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March 03, 2003
The Real Supply Siders
The first comes from William Niskanen. Alex Robson quotes a passage from William Niskanen's Reaganomics:
Supply side economics, however, was not a new economic theory. As of 1981 there was no distinctive supply-side texts, no courses, no distinguished scholar, and no school of supply-side economists. This body of analysis does not conclude that a general reduction in tax rates would increase tax revenues, nor did any government economist or budget projection by the Reagan administration ever make this claim. Arthur Laffer...once drew a curve on paper napkin to demonstrate that a reduction of some high tax rates could increase revenue; the existence of a "Laffer curve", however, was neither new (except by that name) nor controversial. Jude Wanniski of the Wall Street Journal and other journalists who promoted the Laffer curve as a symbol of supply-side economics unfortunately trivialized the substantive contribution of the micro effects of fiscal policy. Supply side economics does not address the effects of government borrowing; specifically, it does not provide a basis for concluding that deficits do not matter... In summary, there was no "supply-side revolution" in economic theory...
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CEA Chair-Designate Greg Mankiw. Mankiw wrote, in the first edition of his Principles of Economics textbook:
An example of fad economics occurred in 1980, when a small group of economists advised Presidential candidate, Ronald Reagan, that an across-the-board cut in income tax rates would raise tax revenue. They argued that if people could keep a higher fraction of their income, people would work harder to earn more income. Even though tax rates would be lower, income would rise by so much, they claimed, that tax revenues would rise. Almost all professional economists, including most of those who supported Reagan's proposal to cut taxes, viewed this outcome as far too optimistic. Lower tax rates might encourage people to work harder and this extra effort would offset the direct effects of lower tax rates to some extent, but there was no credible evidence that work effort would rise by enough to cause tax revenues to rise in the face of lower tax rates....
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http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/movable_type/2003_archives/000837.htmlJust smoke and mirrors republican people who pander to the wealthiest in society, providing them with greater and greater tax cuts using junk economic theory while all the time lying to the American people by promising an economic stake in the American dream. It is a sucker play equivalent to taking the monthly mortgage payment to Atlantic City hoping that this time you can make it big and be rich also.
As far as supply-side economics resulting in properly-designed tax cuts would boost real GDP through supply-side channels by between $1 and $2 for every $1 of notional static-estimate revenues loss from the tax cut, that is total Bushit. It hasn't ever happened and is not ever likely to happen just by pure chance (the invisible hand of free trade). In fact, every effort at this from Ronald Reagan, to Bush I and now Bush II, for every $1 in tax cuts to the wealthy no more than $0.50 has been generated as GDP. That is pretty poor economics for the country, but really great for the wealthy. Supply-side economics is a TOTAL FRAUD and is in fact misnamed, because there is nothing economic about it regardless of which side it comes from. I believe that it is really welfare for the rich paid for by the working middle class and the poor.