Anyone care to offer some thoughts on a argumentative thesis?

I'm taking a class on Argumentative Analysis and Research. We need to read a piece of literature and then write a paper on it or more specifically a question/thesis that arises from that piece of literature. I chose Machiavelli's The Prince and I can't help but see the many parallels between the current mis-Administration. My problem at this point is narrowing down my thoughts to one particular thesis on the parallels. I'm seeing many things that he is doing similar to what Machiavelli suggests but also see many things happening that are opposed to Machiavelli.

My first thought was to write about how Machiavelli would have advised against how the current war is being handled and how current policies will ultimately lead to failure. There are many references to not entering a country based on help from exiles. Not using mercenary forces, etc. I think I like this idea the best.

My second thought was to write about political leadership and the attributes needed for a succesful leader and go point by point about Machiavelli's comments versus how the Bush WH actually follows or doesn't follow the Prince. But then I think where's my argument? Is he a bad leader according to Machiavelli or only half listening to Machiavelli?

If anyone cares to chime in, I would appreciate it. I'm agonizing over how to formulate a thesis on this subject and I'm sure I'm not the only one out there that has seen the parallels.:-)

I am a lurker over on the writer forum here.
There is some excellent advice and I bet one of them will be able to help you.
Good luck.

Thanks for the tip.