Some takes on current events.

1. Bush has become a lot less popular. Bush's approval is at 55%. I expect his popularity to drop a little bit more, but at a much slower rate than before. Its a lot easier to go from 70% to 50% than it is 50% to 30%.

2. However, there is no strong Democrat to take on Bush as of yet. Bush's closest opponent is John Kerry, where Bush has an 8 point lead. The only Democrat with the potential to take on a semi popular Bush is Howard Dean, but Rove's machine is already intent on marginalizing him to the left.

3. The economy will marginally improve by 2004. Leading indicators are already up and the likelihood of a Syrian war or an Iranian war seem slim. The only thing that will take a slice at Bush's popularity would be a catastrophe in Iraq, much like Vietnam affected LBJ even in a prospering economy.

4. Ultimately, a Democrat will win in 2004 but by a slim margin (low 300s electoral vote). Bush will be plagued by a sputtering economy and a deteriorating situation in Iraq.