When is the monsoon in the South West going to kick in?

Quixote1818

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Fri Jul-08-05 04:26 PM
Original message

When is the monsoon in the South West going to kick in?

Usually it's already going strong from around the first of July. The forecast for the next week shows only a 10% chance of rain for each day here in New Mexico. We should be getting hammered right now. What is causing the delay?

I know the Yuma Low (Low Pressure centered above Yuma, Arizona) is what normally causes the monsoon to kick in. It causes warm moist air from the Pacific to be drawn counter clockwise around the low into Eastern Arizona and New Mexico. Is it late forming this year?

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donco6

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Fri Jul-08-05 04:28 PM
Response to Original message

1. We've been getting more than usual here in CO.

Late afternoon thunderstorms daily. Why are they skipping you guys?

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NMDemDist2

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Fri Jul-08-05 04:28 PM
Response to Original message

2. we have persistant High Pressure aloft over AZ and it's HOT HOT HOT

here.

IIRC the monsoons can start as late as mid July so it's not out of the ordinary just yet here in AZ

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Quixote1818

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Fri Jul-08-05 04:33 PM
Response to Reply #2

4. So basicaly as soon as that high pressure moves off to the east then

the monsoon should kick in? Right?

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NMDemDist2

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Fri Jul-08-05 05:07 PM
Response to Reply #4

11. that question is above my pay grade, can't help you there

:shrug:

:rofl:

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Lost4words

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Fri Jul-08-05 04:32 PM
Response to Original message

3. Beats me, Ive been in NM 2.5 years and each year has been different

Edited on Fri Jul-08-05 04:33 PM by 8643

I thought they were supposed to be in late spring but we are past that!

Where are you in NM?

We are in the East Mountains 20 east of Albuquerque, saw a mountain lion on our property the first year, couldnt believe my eyes. 1 week later it was killed in Edgewood after attacking dogs in an area more residential than ours.

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Quixote1818

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Fri Jul-08-05 04:35 PM
Response to Reply #3

5. I am in Albuquerque

I know Eastern New Mexico has had some rains but Central and Western NM are drying out.

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Lost4words

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Fri Jul-08-05 04:48 PM
Response to Reply #5

6. Well the spring seemed pretty wet,

but it doesn't take long with 95 degree days with single digit humidity.

You know Q' its an average of 10 degrees cooler in the mountains, which is great in the summer, but it can be cold and windy up here in the winter.

We are at 7700' above sea level.

I wonder if there are enough central NM DU'ers to have a get together one day?

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Quixote1818

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Fri Jul-08-05 04:54 PM
Response to Reply #6

8. That's a great idea!

It would be fun to hook up with a number of DUers.

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Lost4words

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Fri Jul-08-05 05:03 PM
Response to Reply #8

10. Good! I thought of it, so you arrange it, I'll be there!

I am so lazy..................

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PsN2Wind

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Fri Jul-08-05 04:50 PM
Response to Original message

7. Tubac, south of us

got it pretty good yesterday as did parts of Tucson. We're in the middle and got squat. But the clouds are building pretty good over the Santa Ritas now, so we're hopeful it will start soon.

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micrometer_50

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Fri Jul-08-05 04:55 PM
Response to Original message

9. Here in Tucson

one of the local weather-bunnnies said the hurricane is sucking
the moisture away.
It feels to me like it will start in just a few days.
I just love it when the summer rains arrive.
The contrast from 110 deg 7% humidity to late afternoon
thunderstorms is one of my favorite weather experiences.

:hi:

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slackmaster

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Fri Jul-08-05 05:11 PM
Response to Original message

12. NWS San Diego expects it to start about Wednesday, 7/13

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sgx/display_special_product_versions.php?sid=SGX&pil=AFD

...MORE IMPORTANTLY...AROUND WEDNESDAY COULD BE THE BEGINNING OF THE
SUMMER MONSOON AS THE DEEP AND PROLONGED E/SE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
UP MOISTURE FROM MEXICO. SO...I HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A
CHANCE OF TSTORMS WED-FRI FOR THE MTNS AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT...AND IT PROBABLY WILL BE AS THE CORE OF THE HIGH WILL BE
WELL TO OUR NE AND A STRONG INVERSE TEMP GRADIENT...WITH COOLEST AIR
SOUTH AND WARMEST AIR NORTH...WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TO HELP ASSIST WITH NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE SURGES WHEN
THEY OCCUR INTO THE DESERTS AND POSSIBLY THE MTNS OF EXTREME
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR FURTHER INSTABILITY. TEMPS MIGHT INCREASE
NEAR THE COAST IF CLOUD COVER LOWERS THE DESERT TEMPS LATE IN THE
WEEK...THOUGH THE DESERT TEMP FALLS SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT....

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