000
ABNT20 KNHC 041504
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN SEP 4 2005
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
(1) THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
MARIA... LOCATED ABOUT 605 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
(2) AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY NOT WELL ORGANIZED AROUND
THE CENTER...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
(3) A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...BUT SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
(4) SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE IS MERGING WITH A
FRONTAL ZONE ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.
FORECASTER PASCH
$$
Maria (1) is expected to continue N/NE and not pose a threat.
Models on Invest 93L (2), about 700 miles east of the Bahamas, have it developing slowly and moving to the north and northeast. Would appear to be no threat.
The weak surface low (3) in the northern Bahamas is expected to develop and move slowly north according to UK Met models. Other models take it on various tracks. This one bears monitoring. It's kicking up winds here in C FL today.
Models show that Invest 92L (4), currently located around 10N 52W, may develop and be located near the Dominican Republican next week. On that track it might become a threat to the SE coast/GOM, but we'll have to wait and see.
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