New California Field Poll: Large Undecided Vote

Well the last major poll before the recall is out today--the California Field Poll and the news is not good.

Likely voters now are disposed to vote YES on recall by 57-39 percent, as compared to a 53/43 margin found Sept 25-28.

Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger has opened a ten-point lead over Lt. Governor Cruz Bustamante--36-26 percent. Sept 25-28 Cruz and Arnold were statistically in a dead heat--31-30.

However, there are some things that we can grasp and hopefully the scandal involving Arnold will help.

Among Democrats Cruz holds a 49-16 lead over Arnold with 23% of Democrats still undecided. If they break heavily for Cruz in these last days it would really make a much closer race. (Amazingly McClintock, a hard core conservative gets 12% of the Dem vote). Cruz had 61% of the Dem vote in early September, they have to come back to us if we are to win.

Cruz only gets 2% of the GOP vote, and only 11% of GOP voters are undecided and they favor Arnold over McLintock by 63-24.

Independent voters are closely divided favoring Arnold over Cruz by 26-22 (10% for McClintock) a whooping 42% of Indpendents are either undecided or favor another candidate.

By region, Cruz has really fallen off in the Bay area in early Sept he led Arnold by 45-14, now it is only 37-23, but 26% are undecided.

Arnold has opened a lead in LA county leading by 37-28 (in early september Cruz was ahead 37-31) but 21% are undecided.

Males are overwhelmingly for Arnold 41-26
Females are closly divided 31-26 for Arnold, but 26% undecided
Let hope Gropegate hurts him among women.

The younger you are the more likely you will vote for Arnold, but the older you are it is very close:
voters 50-64 favor Arnold 33-32
voters 65 and over favor Cruz 33-31
but 18-29 favor Arnold 36-17, 30-39 by 39-22, and 40-49 42-25 for Arnold.

More educated the more likely you will vote for Cruz: Post Grad 42-36 for Cruz, but every other eduation level favors Arnold.

Only 60% of people who vote NO on recall will vote for Cruz, but 30% are undecided.

Perhaps most crushing for Cruz is that he leads among Latinos by only six-points!! 40-34 over Arnold, but 20% are undecided.

Davis and Cruz are going to need a huge number of undecideds to break for them to win--but it can be done.

http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/RLS2095.pdf

It appears that important questions are always in the hands of people who don't know what to think. What's not to know, one way or the other? The undecided ninnies end up being the deciders.

but most promising is that a large number of Democrats and women are in that group. They will either do one of two things: Break for Cruz and Davis or sit out the election.

I don't believe.

And you are right: their reasons for voting for someone are usually inane. Again, I say the undecideds will go for the one they LIKE the most.

Guess who that will be??? :argh:

The "NO LOAF is better than half a loaf" college towns must have been called.


I suspect Mc Clintock will benefit from the reports yesterday and frankly I would RATHER have him win than Arnold simply because A) he will repulse the state back to a Democratic governor, B) he WON'T have the bully pulpet like Arnold does C)He is not as STUPID as Arnold

With Arianna out at least we probably picked up around 100K-200K votes.

He needs someone to give him a rationale on how this wouldn't hurt the Green Party to support Bustamante. Small-time Democratic candidate Garrett Gruener withdrew yesterday to support Cruz:

http://www.gg4g.com

I was pleased by that. Every little thing helps at least a little! Camejo should see that Bustamante is a progressive and support him, helping to block the right. If Bustamante were Zell Miller it'd be an impossible sell. But that's just not the case.

Camejo, like fellow Green, Ralph Nader probably believes in "heightening the contradictions".

Hopefully it will have changed with the Hitler and further groping news.

Whoever gets their people out is going to win. Period.

And frankly, whomever gets their folks to the polls will come out ahead.

That's my read on the situation.

But too close to call makes it too easy for an election to be thrown.

In 2004 the Democratic Presidential Nominee must be above the margin of error.

That way, it would look odd if Junior took the vote after having only say 45% re-elect.