Latest Models give a direct hit to New Orleans next week... again

now, due to katrina sucking much of the sst from the gom, it certainly wouldn't be a cat 4 or 5... probably just a weak hurricane... but it would possibly just completely destroy new orleans... I don't think it could deal with anymore water.

Luckily, this is nearly a week away, so plenty of time for change... and in all likelihood it will... just a heads up.

(Btw, this is the O storm... don't remember what the name is... TD16.)

that is the ECMWF, the best model in the world... it probably won't happen... but if it doesn't drift north in the next 2 days (possible,) then a landfall close to New Orleans IS possible.

They look like they are trying to get organized. The waters are certainly warm enough to give a storm lots of fuel.

Do you have more information on the model? What probability? What is it based on?

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

and the GFDL and a couple other similar crap models support it... but the ECMWF is the BEST model in the world... that's not to say it's right, it probably isn't one week out... but it is a possibility.

:(

Shakespeare.

:evilgrin:

"Speak the speech, I pray you, as I pronounced it to you - trippingly on the tongue; but if you mouth it, as many of your players do, I had as lief the town-crier had spoke my lines. Nor do not saw the air too much your hand, thus, but use all gently; for in the very torrent, tempest, and as I may say the whirlwind of your passion, you must acquire and beget a temperance that may give it smoothness. O, it offends me to the soul to hear a robustious, periwig-pated fellow tear a passion to tatters, to very rags, to split the ears of the groundlings, for the most part are capable of nothing but inexplicable dumb shows and noise...

n/t

:silly:

The track that I'm seeing has it coming in just south of Jacksonville on Saturday.

this is for the next one that has not been named yet but is developing?

Am I off base on this?

as a hurricane :scared: Bear in mind that on an island (like Kaua'i in 'Iniki, Sept. 11 (!), 1992) there's really no place to evacuate to.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT15/refresh/AL1505W_sm2+gif/145441W_sm.gif

people when it hits.

thanks, nikki ...

:)

i'm seeing a projection of TD16 moving north along Florida's EAST COAST ...

source: http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200516_5day.html

Don't spread panick!

I'm getting sick of these threads.

All of a sudden everyone is a weather man, yet they never can provide NOAA links to back up any of their claims.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145127.shtml?5day

this is most likely headed to n florida. 'could' it get to NOLA next week? i suppose but very very improbable.

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who as been extremely accurate doesn't even have it close to NOLA.

NHC is being ridiculous by forcing it out to sea... there are already 2 active canes in the atlantic... one fairly close by (NATE,) Ophelia would not be able to recurve... when she doesn't, she goes into the Gulf... there are only a few models showing that right now, but the ones that do SLAM NOLA... including the ECMWF, the BEST model in the world.

... what ARE you talking about?

ECMWF stands for European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

The ECMWF has a model -- for forcasting - which is called (per ECMWF's website), Integrated Forecast System (IFS).

http://www.ecmwf.int/research/

There are NOT 3 or 4 models projecting a westward track towards NOLA. As for "these" being the ones that correctly predicted Katrina's landfall point, that's just silly since all the commonly used models began to focus on NO once Katrina reached the gulf proper. The only model that correctly handled Katrina prior to Florida landfall has this storm heading due north, very close to the official NHC predicted track.

BTW, SST's in the gulf are back to being quite high. Katrina stirred up the waters to be sure but they don't stay cool for that long. It's been 10 days since she passed through there after all. And the Euro is definately NOT "the best model in the world". It has it's uses, like most models, and that is all.

including the NWS and NHC

The Euro does not have a track record any better than the GFS, GFDL, or many other models more commonly used for tropical systems.

By the way, the 'O' storm would be Ophelia. You might want to know that sort of thing.

not worth the argument, but please look at some verification figures before you make a completely ridiculous statement like that.

Anyway...this thread should be locked.

Be careful before you post stuff like that!

9/11 was a big conspiracy and the like... not posting viable meteorological solutions.

9/11 was a big conspiracy and the like... not posting viable meteorological solutions.

...said it happened? :wtf:

Wow...in that case maybe New Orleans WILL get hit by this next hurricane....:eek:

...it did...oh, wait.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT16/refresh/AL1605P_sm2+gif/145127P_sm.gif

Per NOAA - it is NOT headed toward LA -- at ALL!

meteorologically.

Nate will force it into the Gulf.

.....

if you have special expertise - or info - we're (or at least I'm) all ears.

but ... there is NO information I've been able to find (on weatherunderground and NOAA) to support this at all.

Maybe the poster has something official to share with us that trumps NOAA.

and this is being discussed as a possibility...

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=50198

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=50173

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=50165

Just stay away from the politics forum, you may wretch...

a few quotes:

"The sole model at the moment with TD16 getting over the Gulf of Mexico is the ECMWF."

Compare with lead post: "Latest Models ...."

Look -- I don't want to get in an argument, but I agree w/ the other posters -- the REAL facts are bad enough. You could have posted something like (taking quotes from the postings you cited).

According to a weather discussion forum, "One model," which admittedly "isn't fully operational yet," indicates that one possibility is that TD16 could conceiveably head towards New Orleans.

Instead - you opted for an inflammatory (and exaggerated) fear-inducing post.

Reality is scary enough!

models.

I'll get you a map in a moment.

the latest models (that I can find) just do not support this.

Of course that track isn't viable. The National Hurricane Center posted that track because they don't know jack about meteorology. I hear they just use monkeys flinging poo at a map to determine future tracks.

Get a grip guy.

One word of warning to all. There is more uncertainty with TD 16's track than is usually the case. New Orleans is a real long shot however, about the same chance of it going there as it has to visit New York. Not very good in other words. Wait a day, the track will be much clearer.

A couple of years ago, two Atlantic hurricanes merged and became a larger storm.

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=URI:urn:newsml:reuters.com:20050906:MTFH36515_2005-09-06_16-56-03_N96722425:1

MIAMI, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Tropical storm warnings were posted for Florida's central Atlantic coast on Tuesday as a new cyclone formed and threatened to hit the state as a weak hurricane by the weekend.

The system was still an unnamed tropical depression, a loose swirling mass of thunderstorms, but was growing better organized and was expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Ophelia over the northwestern Bahamas by Wednesday.
...
...

"It looks like it's going to impact a little bit further north than Katrina did," said Jennifer Pralgo, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center.

The center's extended forecast had it coming ashore in north central or northeast Florida by Thursday and dissipating over Georgia without getting anywhere near the Gulf of Mexico....

just to show when this storm is in the gulf of mexico.

thanks.

doesn't even talk about the possibility of it reaching hurricane strength before making landfall in northeast Florida and the track is nowhere near New Orleans.

forcing Ophelia into the Gulf.

I rather think it can.

its input less valuable than other models... the GFS also has a notorious bias.

interesting that you're trumpeting an alarming possibility from one of them as a dead certainty in the OP.

"Luckily, this is nearly a week away, so plenty of time for change... and in all likelihood it will... just a heads up."

oh, and the one I'm "trumpeting" is the best forecast model that we have.

Just thought you should know that.

that neither the discussion nor the forecast track hint that TD 16 could become a hurricane and strike New Orleans, as the OP indicates. Still sounds like the NHC is expecting a tropical storm to hit central or northeast Florida later in the week with minor impact.

How is a storm that hits the Central Florida coast with thirty mph or so winds have the power to cross hundred of miles of land and harm New Orleans?

How is a storm that hits the Central Florida coast with thirty mph or so winds have the power to cross hundred of miles of land and harm New Orleans?

Hurricanes feed off warm waters and the waters of the Gulf are very warm. If it hits the Gulf then it will probably strengthen quickly. Path at this point is really just educated guesswork.

NOAA and Can. Hurricane ctr projected Katrina path perfect. Ophelia is forecasted to come ashore No. Florida and GA

And the storm seems headed to Eastern Florida at the current time.

I hope you aren't hoping for a hurricane to vindicate your prediction....

And I'll bet $500.00 to the Katrina relief fund of your choice that Tropical Depression Sixteen won't get anyhwhere near New Orleans...

it's so deliciously geeky!

(giggle)

Do you have a link?

as of 12z, that is... haven't had a chance to look at 18z yet, but will do now.

ECMWF

"Compared to the other 2 operational models described above, the ECMWF does the best in predicting mid/upper tropospheric heights during the colder part of the year(such as October through April). The ECMWF tends to perform quite well in predicting amplitudes of planetary-scale regimes such as the Pacific/North American teleconnection (PNA). This model can also perform outstandingly during low to high planetary-scale wavenumber transition events, and northern hemispheric-scale regime transitions (Berry et al. 1996, CR TM 111).
Outperforms the other medium-range forecast models during shallow cold air situations.
Tends to overdevelop mid/upper cyclones across the southwestern U.S. Situations arise where this model will be too slow to predict the movement of cyclones from the southwest deserts.
Has a slight tendency to forecast mid/upper tropospheric heights and the resultant thickness calculations too high (i.e.; a warm bias).
Sometimes, especially during the warmer portion of the annual cycle, this model has too many closed lows. This bias may be related to its high resolution.
Tends to overamplify the long wave pattern, resulting in slower than observed progression of systems through the westerlies. This can result in overly weak and northward displaced short waves and associated surface features lifting into the long wave ridge position.
Found to have the smallest overall distance errors with springtime closed low forecasts during days four and five.
Westward forecast bias of closed cyclones (related to the issue described above)
Often too slow moving short wave features in deamplifying or zonal patterns
Of the medium range models, the ECMWF performs best with driving Arctic fronts down the east slopes of the Rockies.
The ECMWF too often incorrectly digs closed upper lows SWWD then WWD underneath strong upper ridges over the Eastern Pacific."

Like any model, it does well with some things and piss poor with others. Calling it "the best model in the world" is just nonsense. By the way, you're on the storm2k boards aren't ya? There's a guy over who sounds a lot like you. The pro mets are handing him his ass.

by the way, have you seen that the TD is not moving NW as progged, but rather W?

If you read my post, I said it was unlikely to strike NOLA... but it WILL enter the gulf. It will NOT go to Georgia and then recurve.

And, if you were to ask anyone who knows weather forecasting well what the best model in the world is (aside from SREF and ETA/NAM within 36-48 hrs or so, we are currently talking 5-7 days) they will overwhelmingly say the ECMWF.