Georgia GOP discounts swing voters.

Story in the AJC this morning. Ralph Reed heading up the * campaign in Georgia. Here are some relevant quotes:

"Reed put up PowerPoint slides that showed the United States equally divided between Democrats and Republicans. Past elections, he said, have been decided by independent "swing" voters who made up 16 percent of the voters in 1988 but only 7 percent today."

"The decline in the number of persuadable voters has caused Republicans to focus more on driving a higher percentage of their loyalists to the polls. "What that does is put a lot of pressure on turning out our vote," Reed said."

http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/metro/1003/05gabush.html

Interesting. This brings up the same old question: Go for the swing voters, or concentrate on getting out the base?

It would seem that if you concentrate on gettng out the base, they may be able to bring the swing voters with them. In any event, I would venture to say that Dems CAN'T WIN if they don't get out the base. (See Max Cleland, Cynthia McKinney, Roy Barnes.)

Also, is that 7% number similar to national numbers, or is Georgia strongly polarized?

The right-wingers know they're losing the swing-voters. That's the only reason why they would concentrate on their base.

"Interesting. This brings up the same old question: Go for the swing voters, or concentrate on getting out the base?"

IMHO, we should be focusing on getting out the 50% of people who never even bother to vote. While at the same, of course getting our base to the polls as well. But the non-voters in America could be a very powerful force if stirred to participate.

Energize your base


or


Reach out to independents


The immutable laws of math suggest you have to do both...


P.S. I have seen the number of indys estimated to be between 10% to 30% of the electorate....

According to Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, only about 37 percent of the electorate strongly identify as Democrats or Republicans.

http://www.tallahassee.com/mld/democrat/news/opinion/6926945.htm

The rest, it would stand to reason, are teetering. Some may be teetering the left. Some to the right. But if you believe the above figure, 63% of the electorate could be swayed to one side or the other.

To further quote the article above: "We are not a nation of party loyalists."

The GOP has no option but to energize the base. They've got the demographic--and, now, thank god, the political--trends going against them.

We Dems have better prospects:

* Dems are angry, while Republicans are demoralized.

* Swing/Independent voters are leaning, from what I've seen, heavily anti-Bush. This is good news for the Dems, especially if we get the right person running.

We're in a uniquely happy position, politically. We can fire up the base by attacking Bush AND we can capture swing voters by attacking Bush.

WE CAN CAPTURE THE CENTER WITHOUT MOVING TO THE RIGHT.

Think about that.

I saw this on Politics1 about a month ago. I know that McKinney was considering running against Rep. Majette in GA-4, but look under GA-12. It lists McKinney as a possible candidate to run against Rep. Max Burns. Any thoughts?

http://www.politics1.com/ga.htm

That district mostly runs from Augusta to Savannah, although a bit stretches up to Athens.

The current (repub) won his election 55% to 44%, so I don't know how much of a chance she would have. Although, I seem to remember some ethical questions regarding the Dem candidate in that race.

The 2000 election, the 2002 midterms, the Cali Recall, Iraq, Bush's lies. Bush has already mobilized thr democratic base. He is probably more despised by the "left" than any other sitting president.