Rita now trending North of original expectations.

...of course it is all completely up in the air at this point.

from various weather centers. Historically the Nation Hurricane Center's (NHC - Light Blue) projections have been closest to actual path.

They have different algorithms that try to predict its path. Each one is a different model.

Except for the light-blue bar. That's the "official" predicted path and is based on an averaging of some sort of all the models.

The dark blue model seems to take a lot of time to update, probably a more intense supercomputing job. It is the one that predicted Katrina would cross florida first and in general tracked Katrina the best, but it doesn't seem to be doing too well with Rita so far. It might work better closer to land or once the storm grows.

I never cared much about projections before, but since the last one was so accurate, I'm paying more attention now.

I know the NHC is one group and the UKMET (United Kingdom Meteorological Service) is another.

<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutmodels.shtml>

Scroll down to "2. Track Models"....lots of very good, and very detailed information.

The computer forecasts can jump around a lot, and they try to keep the official consensus more stable. But the result is that it can be slow to respond to a trend.

For example, when Katrina was approaching the Gulf Coast on the Friday before it hit, the computer projections were gradually moving from the Florida Panhandle over towards Louisiana. But the "official" consensus stayed with the Panhandle until after the majority of projections had made the shift.

I see the same thing now. This morning, everything pointed at the Texas coast. Then one projection started pointing at New Orleans. Now it's two. Under those conditions, the official forecast is looking less and less reassuring.

we are watching it closely here in Florida...

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog
Last Updated: 2:11 AM GMT on September 19, 2005
Last Comment Added: 3:29 AM GMT on September 19, 2005

Keys residents: pack your bags
Posted By: JeffMasters at 1:59 AM GMT on September 19, 2005
Updated: 2:11 AM GMT on September 19, 2005
Florida Keys residents should seriously consider evacuating tonight. While Rita is still a modest tropical storm, I don't like what I see at all from the latest hurricane hunter report. They found a fairly high pressure, 1004 mb, but flight level winds at 5000 feet were already up to 67 knots-- hurricane force--and a 40% complete eyewall has formed. While the odds are considerably against Rita becoming a Category 3 hurricane by the time it moves through the Keys, it is certainly possible. I'd give it a 10% chance of happening, and if I lived in the Keys, I wouldn't risk staying for that 10% chance. The sudden intensification is happening in the face of about 5 - 10 knots of shear, which one can see impacting the SW side of the storm on satellite imagery. The outflow at upper levels is resricted there, but looking VERY impressive on the north side. Rita seems intent on becoming a Category 1 hurricane Monday, and will probably be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane when it moves through the Keys Monday night. The Keys can handle a Category 2 hurricane--barely.

The Keys take a full 72 hours to evacuate, and now that New Orleans has been taken out by Katrina, the Keys represent the number one most vulnerable area in the U.S. for serious loss of life from a hurricane strike. Even though the evacuation order has already been given for visitors and tourists, not everyone will be able to make it out if Rita suddenly intensifies tomorrow to a Category 3 status.

The nighmare scenario is what happened during the Great Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, which intensified from a tropical storm with 70 mph winds to a Category 5 hurricane with 160 mph winds in just 42 hours as it approached the Keys. Over 400 Keys residents died in the ensuing disaster.

So, if I lived in the Keys, I would start packing my bags now. Hurricane intensity forecasts are not reliable. I would wait until 11:00 tonight and see what the Hurricane Center has to say, and if they also don't like the looks of this storm, I'd hit the road. If you decide not to go, be sure to take another look very early tomorrow morning, after the 5am advisory comes out, and be ready to hit the road early in the morning. Better to be horribly inconvenienced than dead.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html
Jeff Masters

in the Seven Mile Bridge is taken out.

...if the green is the likely path, there is something very suspicious about that.

What are BAMD and BAMM?

Where will Rita go? That is the big question right now. The mostly likely path will take Rita between Cuba and the southern Florida Peninsula as a tropical storm early this week. The system will be a threat to the Florida Keys early this coming week then pass into the Gulf of Mexco where Rita is likely to develop into a hurricane. Fortunately, for the folks along the already devastated Gulf Coast, high pressure over the South will steer Rita to the west and not allow it to turn northward. If the storm continues on a westward path, then the west coast of the Gulf of Mexico could be impacted by the end of the week or next weekend.

...of the computer models.

the AccuWeather site was the latest update they had. I notice I forgot the link...

it would hit the city from the ESE, with the NE quadrant running right over Lake Ponchartrain. Worst case for storm surge.

Tracking would also wreak even more havoc on the lower LA "chemical alley" along the river from NOLA to Baton Rouge.

A hurricane running up the river has always been a potential nightmare.

My folks just got home yesterday! They're gonna have to leave again?!

Keep in mind that there are **no** hospitals open, one article has said there is 'no medical/hospital infrastructure" in the city...toss in yet another hurricane (hell, toss in a strong rainshower)and those returning are screwed...again!!


edited: changed from NO mayor to "officials" to cover the whole area, not just NO

But you have a point. From what they told me on the phone today, everything is still under heavy marshall law, helicopters are everywhere, the few grocery stores that are open have shortages of products, and the streets are nearly deserted.

Mom's words today on the phone: "Honestly, Tommy.. it looks like a warzone."

So if Jefferson is that bad, I can only shudder to think about how bad things are in Orleans Parish on the ground.

A lot of worst case scenario going around lately.

I hope my young 'un makes the decision to move real soon.

We're already up to "R"? There are only 8 more letter left in the alphabet. Something is fishy with this stuff this year. Wonder what that could be.

...saying "No one ever thought aeroplanes would be used as weapons". Does the same go for the weather and severe storms such as hurricanes?

Can you explain how that could cause this kind of catastrophic situation though?

I was discussing this with a science friend this past weekend.
When the ice is frozen, it displaces the liquid. So when it thaws, it still displaces the same amount of space. Is that correct?

What more? I'm all ears.

Some ice is on land. When that melts (and it is) it raises sea levels.

As ice changes to water the salt concentration goes down. I'm unclear as to how, but this supposedly effects ocean currents drastically.

As the icebergs melt, they stop keeping pools of cold water underneath them protected from the sunlight and atmosphere, so ocean temps rise due to more solar absorption and in addition there is more mixing with warmer waters.

...and the list goes on and on.

It is very unpredictable once it gets into the warm waters of the Gulf...