I feel a little bit vindicated on my prediction

karlrschneider

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Fri Sep-23-05 09:08 PM
Original message

I feel a little bit vindicated on my prediction

since Rita is seeming to go pretty close to where I said...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=4821751

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Horse with no Name

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Fri Sep-23-05 09:11 PM
Response to Original message

1. I thought it was going in at Port Arthur?

:shrug:

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Igel

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Fri Sep-23-05 09:14 PM
Response to Reply #1

2. Local stations are split between

Port Arthur and the Sabine Pass, maybe a bit east of that (which would make it firmly in SW Louisiana).

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karlrschneider

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Fri Sep-23-05 09:15 PM
Response to Reply #2

4. Exactly. I got some flack for not believing landfall southwest of HOU

a few days ago...
;-)

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Horse with no Name

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Fri Sep-23-05 09:16 PM
Response to Reply #2

5. Sabine Pass is Texas

?
I ate a restaurant down there--Sartin's? I think the name was, but we were definitely still in Texas.
No doubt Morgan City/Lake Charles will be affected, but it is still Texas landfall.:shrug:

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karlrschneider

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Fri Sep-23-05 09:23 PM
Response to Reply #5

8. Well, the Sabine river is the dividing line between TX and LA

so if you went a few hundred yards east, you'd have been in Louisiana...

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karlrschneider

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Fri Sep-23-05 09:14 PM
Response to Reply #1

3. Yes...around there and maybe Lake Charles. This was a few days ago

when the forecast track was between Houston and Corpus Christi.

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A-Possum

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Fri Sep-23-05 09:18 PM
Response to Original message

6. Better head for Vegas!

You're on a roll. ;P

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karlrschneider

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Fri Sep-23-05 09:29 PM
Response to Reply #6

10. Every time I go to Vegas,

I lose my butt. :D

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fleabert

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Fri Sep-23-05 09:20 PM
Response to Original message

7. seems some owe you an apology...

I don't need to name names...

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karlrschneider

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Fri Sep-23-05 09:24 PM
Response to Reply #7

9. Haha...no apologies necessary, I just calls 'em as I see 'em.

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qanda

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Fri Sep-23-05 09:37 PM
Response to Original message

11. I didn't respond to your thread

But I certainly thought about it as I watched the storm edge closer and closer to your prediction. :thumbsup:

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karlrschneider

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Fri Sep-23-05 09:59 PM
Response to Reply #11

14. Nyet problemski. :D I don't have any agenda on this, I just try to be

as accurate as my experience allows. Thanks for the note.
;-)

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Jose Diablo

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Fri Sep-23-05 09:44 PM
Response to Original message

12. I'd say you hit it pretty close.

If I remember right, you made this prediction when Rita was still pounding Key West/Cuba. All the news channels were predicting someplace around Houston down to Mexico.

I guess those long range aviation weather forecast methods work.

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karlrschneider

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Fri Sep-23-05 10:25 PM
Response to Reply #12

16. I'd like to think I've learned a bit from my 45 years as a

commercial pilot & flight instructor. :D Thanks.

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Quixote1818

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Fri Sep-23-05 09:48 PM
Response to Original message

13. I predict Lake Charles and Jennings LA will have the worst damage

Edited on Fri Sep-23-05 09:49 PM by Quixote1818

Port Arthur and Beaumont, Texas will also have heavy damage.

Lake Charles and Jennings being to the right of the eye will get the winds coming off the Ocean (the strongest) then again Port Arthur is closest to the Ocean so it might get hit harder?

Houston and Galveston will have only minimal damage. Perhaps Cat 1 kind of damage.

I have to admit that it seems like the storm is hitting in an area of relatively little population which is good news. 75 miles to the east or west and the cost of lives and money would have skyrocketed.

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karlrschneider

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Fri Sep-23-05 10:03 PM
Response to Reply #13

15. Sure...if it has to hit someplace, better to be in sparsely populated area

no doubt. It isn't 'good' news for those in its path, but it's "not so bad" for others.

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Individualist

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Fri Sep-23-05 10:28 PM
Response to Original message

17. I was thinking about your accurate prediction

this evening. If I ever have a meteorological question, I now know which expert to ask. :)

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