Who has had it with this Bird Flu shit? I don't believe this! I think

it is just another way to scare us.

watch out for other nasties instead. I wonder what else Bush will throw at us?

a poll from MSNBC on another thread about this.

Mews reports filled with visions of mushroom clouds, the phrase Mushroom clouds and weapons of mass destruction contantly...Now its the bird flu PANDEMIC <<< Fear buzz word. It's not even human to human yet, for crissakes.

I plan on just doing what I have always done, take care of myself, eat healthy, lots of sleep, exercise, and take the usual sanitary / hygiene precautions.

Judith Miller start reporting on this..that's if she isn't indicted, of course.

More so if the WH agrees to expand the savings account ala Armstrong!

Judy is not that indispensable, except maybe to ol' Scooter
Look how long they left her to rot in jail.

I understand that the major media is running with this story, but what about all the medical community saying what they say every year?

Oh, I forgot: you went to med school and know more than all the infectious disease specialists out there.

Don't think for a minute that the Doctors aren't paid to shove this down our throats.

I do all the bills, and I know what's coming in from where. Trust me, he's getting paid nothing to be worried about H5N1.

There are unscrupulous doctors out there, yes, but there are many good researchers, infectious disease specialists, and primary care docs out there who are honestly worried, keeping tabs on everything that's out there in the medical literature, and working to keep their patients as safe as possible.

Btw, we don't own any Pharma stock. We don't have enough money to buy any with paying off consumer debt from med school and residency and med school loans. Not every doctor is super rich. We're paycheck to paycheck like everyone else.

and he is worried sick about this. He says that it would be a disaster.There are not enough ventilators or antiviral meds available .Not enough hospital beds or staff. I am amazed at the lack of scientific knowledge displayed here.It IS something to be worried about. It is not a * plot. I am disappointed in what I read here but hey, I guess it is human nature and to tell the truth, there is not much the medical community can do if it mutates and spreads easily. We are stocking up and are prepared if it happens this year. Not much else we can do.

If that sucker hits our shores this flu season or in the next couple of flu seasons, it'll be bad. We're nowhere near prepared for it. I know our unit isn't big enough to handle that level of patient numbers, and we don't have enough pulmonary/critical care docs, either. We'd be swamped quickly, as we're running close to full capacity for all the internists and specialists in town. I just can't see how my husband's practice can handle much more without quickly hiring at least one more MD (preferably two).

Why are our husbands and other doctors being attacked for something they've been worried about for years and working to prepare for?

Oh, what area does your husband practice in? Is he an internist too? Does he want a job here in lovely Battle Creek, Michigan? ;) Heck, we'll take him no matter what his specialty. Cheap living, good schools, great community. :D

He has a waiting list of people who want him as their doctor(he is good at what he does) but he cannot see anymore than he is seeing now. He only takes family members or friends of patients he has now. :)

:D

David's practice has the four MDs and almost twenty thousand active patients. He's so tired when he gets home at night, especially on call nights. At least it's home call, though, right? Our kids may not remember hospital call during residency, but I sure do. I never want to go back to those days.

FPs in our town are swamped. Many still do OB, as there aren't enough OBs to meet the need, and they're just tired. Technically, we're not a medically underserved area, but it sure feels like it to all the docs in town. The two referral hospitals down the road are often on diversion, and it's not unheard of for our smaller one to be, too.

That's why my hubby's so worried about a bad flu season or an epidemic like th H5N1. We're stretched thin as it is.

But also reported there has been no human to human transmission. Those that have died from this had contact with infected poultry. You dont have to be a med graduate to understand that this bug has not mutated to the form that is dangerous to humans YET..when it does then it is time to prepare. Sky is falling attitude is the very reason the terror alert system failed...the alarm was set off for the slightest reasons.

Potential :)
existing in possibility, capable of development into actuality. As stated this bug has not mutated to transfer human to human. It is possible that it could...but hasn't yet.

Some are questionable, but there have been cases of caregivers having no contact with infected birds at all and only having contact with sick humans then getting H5N1. The transmission still seems to not be all that easy, so we're just waiting for it to mutate to fix that problem.

The medical community has been waiting for this for years. They keep close tabs on it and communicate amongst themselves daily on what's going on. Just because the MSM has decided to play it up doesn't mean it's not a problem.

Go figure.

You and me and a few others know what's coming down the pipe. All we can do is be sure that WE are prepared. You can lead a horse to water but you still can't make him drink.

"OOPS...my bad!"

or

"okay,okay, you scared me. You win!"

I know people in Thailand who have died from it.
This is no fucking joke.

Wow, what an incredible coincidence!

http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/32888/story.htm

there who know the people who died. I cancelled my trip there this year
for this very reason. Over 25 million birds have been killed in Asia. This hardly sounds like a hoax.

I think they're convinced the Bird Flu is coming; that they're scared out of their own wits; and that they're trying to "spin" it early on so they can avoid taking any of the blame.

Their inability to produce enough vaccine for us is what bugs me. The phamaceutical companies don't want to take on high-labor-cost projects like this, and they want some way to force a law holding them harmless for all the damage they do. A pandemic will give them all the excuse they need.

Of course, Team Bush will have vaccine a-plenty. Custom incubated on eggs laid by chickens who have accepted the Great Cluck as their Savio(u)r ... :)

--p!

unpleasant for several days and then it's over.

What the hell is the big deal?

Flu kills. Not 100 percent, but the current mortality rate of bird flu is about 50 percent. By time it gets to the US, it will not be that lethal, and the rich in the US will have better treatments, but I would not advise people to make such foolish statements as "Yeah, I've had the flu many times... unpleasant for several days and then it's over. What the hell is the big deal?"

Influenza B is no big deal.

I've had Influenza A at least three times. The H5N1 Bird Flu is an Influenza A.

Twice with Flu-A, I was sick as a dog, and got over it fine.

The third time I had it, in 1990, I nearly died. My fever went to over 104.5, I lost over 10% of my body weight in three days, I developed several small bruises from fever-induced inhibition of clotting, I became seriously delerious and had a number of hallucinatory episodes. I thought that demons had cut my body into pieces and my soul had ascended into a Swedenborgian heaven (no, I'm not Swedenborgian, nor even a believer in an afterlife).

When I was able to move around again, and decided to clean up a little, my bedsheets were stained mottled yellow-orange all the way through to the bed itself, in spite of the fact that I hadn't wet the bed (I was too dehydrated).

My sense of smell was just about nil for the next six months; some people lose it entirely, forever.

That flu was an H1N1 variant. H5N1 would be much worse since it is, in effect, a "novel" recombinant of the virus, and the body would have NO residual resistance to it. What I had would be a minor case of Bird Flu.

Don't mess with the flu, Kablooie, especially the brand-spankin'-new ones. We've been lucky so far. But we need to make sure we stay lucky. And with the flaming fool we have for a President, we are going to need all the luck we can get.

--p!

Or did you really have bad colds or intestinal viruses? Even "regular" flu takes you down for more than several days.

The tummy bone is not connected to the lung bone.

Common misconception that vomiting/diarrhea have anything whatsoever to do with influenza, a respiratory virus. Most people who get acutely ill with GI signs have FOOD POISONING, or sometimes one of the GI viruses.

come back for an intelligent discussion.

Oh, and don't forget your milk and cookies before bedtime.

sinister voice for coverage of this on Scarborough Country. Disgusting.

eggs because it's a bird flu. Doesn't work. Read about it last year.

If you have a link, please supply it.

If that came off like a common Internet dweeb citation challenge, please accept my apologies -- I am interested in the issue, and that's a serious new piece of news.

I had been informed repeately that if a bird can transmit the flu -- as most all of them can -- that chicken eggs will work fine as incubators.

If it's for real, that Bird Flu can not incubate in eggs, it's a weird and troubling development.

--p!

I've been trying to say that everywhere I can. They had to ditch the usual vaccine making routine and come up with an entirely new one, which is one of the reasons why they've been slow in making it.

The vaccine is in the testing phase on healthy adults. The results aren't back yet, from what Hubby's seen.

This seems like an authoritative source:



Perhaps the idea that chicken eggs aren't used came about because of this, from last year:

When they used the live virus, like they usually do, it killed the eggs before they were usable. They've come up with a dead version that still works in the eggs and makes them still produce what's needed.

That's what my husband read in one of his med journals, anyway.

eggs or anywhere else, for that matter.

I was watching it super close last year because I had read that the 1918 flu was a bird flu. I think from an article in either Scientific American or Discover magazine was where I learned it was a bird virus.

Sort of like Katrina. That was real enough, but then BushCo also used it as an excuse to try and dismantle even more environmental regs, among other things.

Even though BushCo may be trying to leverage fear for political purposes, don't lose sight of the fact that a pandemic mutation is a serious possibility. This isn't a made-up thing.

couple of years only 62 people have died, and that was from infection directly from birds. Remember SARS? Be afraid, very afraid...not!

If SARS ever mutated into a form that was highly contagious, it would be a threat too. It's good that it didn't, but I don't see what that has to do with predicting the likelihood of a contagious avian flu mutation.

I don't know what the story is with SARS, but flu viruses don't have transcription-error correction capability. They mutate easily, and they also swap genes with other flu strains easily. That is why they are a greater potential threat. It's extra easy for them cross species and evolve into human-contagious forms.

If you believe in evolution, then you have to know that the virus will mutate. Of course if may not mutate for 2 years, 10 years or 100 years - nobody can predict that.

There are three known patients who have gotten it from human-to-human transmission with a few other suspected ones. They were caregivers, so apparently, it's not easily transmissable. Once it is, then we're in trouble.

This is a highly mutatable disease, and that is why the medical community is so concerned. It's in every one of my husband's medical journals, and everyone's nervous about this one. It might not happen this year, true, but it will. The question isn't how bad it'll be (very bad) but instead how prepared we'll be.

will come to visit. Can these bastards predict when? Of course not. There is no more need to worry about this than any other year.

Haven't you heard? Bush has pledged the military to surround and quarantine the chickens, and torture those with information about which ones are actually infected.

He's already named a Bird Flu Czar: Colonel Sanders.

They put crones in charge. Let the disaster happen. And profit from the suffering of others. The only thing that keeps them up at night is trying to think of ways to make the people hurt by their follies pay for them.

will discuss the 13 other 'terror' alerts that just happened to coincidentally occur whenever the B* administration is having difficulties! Tonight and tomorrow. There is a DU post on this...I'll edit for the link.

We're just damn lucky it hasn't broken out of China yet.

It's just a matter of time.

not from human to human.

but it was close contact in families. Not spread easily yet.
News from all over the world.
http://www.iflu.org/
Bush is behind the curve in getting ready and I think they know the odds are good and don't want another Katrina.

direct link. Thank you.

Of interest, I did see that only one place in the world has the vaccinine and it's in South Florida. Ok...which of Bush's buddies are involved with that facility? Wasn't Rumsfeld working for the company that makes Tamiflu?

been paying attention to ... watergate redux

;-)

Very limited human-to-human transmission of the H5N1 strain was documented in health care workers, family members, poultry workers, and workers involved in culling operations.
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/avian_faqs/en/#isthere

So it has happened but the virus has yet to be easily transmitted casually. If and when that happens we have a big problem.

Also from this article.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9665609/
a line which I find chilling.]
There is no greater expert on the threat of bird flu than Dr. Rob Webster of St. Jude Children's Research Hospital.

"We're due, and it could happen his year," he says.
snip
Webster has infected lab animals with the virus and says it's very dangerous.

"This virus spreads outside the lungs to the central nervous system," he says. "The animal gets hind-leg paralysis and dies. This is the first influenza virus we've seen that does this in a mammal."

no cases of transmission from human to humans, although there is a Thai family that was suspect. This was dated May 2004.

The event that you mentioned about health careworkers etc, happened in 1997.

A vaccine can't be made until AFTER the viruse mutates into a highly H-H contagious form. You need to have a sample of the target virus BEFORE you can make a vaccine for it, and you won't know the target virus until it arrives on the scene.

They've figured out a highly likely version of the virus and have the vaccine in the testing phase on healthy adults. It took them longer than usual because they had to figure out how to manufacture it (it killed all the fertilized chicken eggs they usually use before they could get anything useful from them), but they do have one they're testing.

Clever infectious disease specialists recognized the importance of capturing this strain at the time. Their astute work may have paid off.

(Sanofi is the same company as Aventis Pasteur).

Most of the rest of world flu vaccine capacity is in Europe or Japan - see http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/health/drugs/2004-11-16-flu-vaccine-shortage_x.htm from last year.

Rumsfeld worked for Searle, which is now part of Pharmacia. Tamiflu is made by a different company - Hoffman-la Roche.

I was saying thing about it 6 month ago,Maybe * want it to happen.

The flu threat is real, but it is distant in time and space at the moment.

The health summit with health leaders from 90 nations is real. Rove does not command 90 nations.

The way Bush keeps talking about invoking the military is a threat in and of itself. I think it is a slip because it is too much in line with their philosophy, i.e. it is their mainline, not a distraction.

He is hell-bent on being in charge of the U.S. under martial law. He needs this NEW FIX, this new HIGH.

War thousands of miles away ain't cuttin' it any more.

Here's the way I see it: this bird flu story has been in the news for several years now and the American media and the White House really hasn't taken it seriously until now. Now, the White House suddenly finds itself under fire for botching the rescue effort of tens of thousands left stranded by hurricane Katrina and they suddenly have to show that they have the ability to coordinate an effective disaster response.

Result: Bush starts to toot his own horn and tell the country that he's got this great plan in effect for when the bird flu comes a knocking. "Look at me," he's saying, "I can be a good president...see?"

When I read stories about the bird flu thoughts of SARS and those damned killer bees come flooding into my mind. Scary stories that eventually find themselves in the realm of urban myths. This bird flu has killed 60 people since it first hit the news back in 2003. Between the years 1990 and 1999 the common influenza that we all catch every winter killed approximately 36,000 people each season (in the US alone). So you do the math.

The bottom line: I see an administration that's desperate to save some face and bring its approval ratings up. Keep at it George...the only thing I see you doing is continuing to show the world what a baffoon you really are.

The mortality rate for bird flu is much higher than regular flu, even accounting for third world health care.

The devastating H1N1 influenza pandemic of 1918 has essentially the same viral structure as the H5N1 bird flu.

By, the way, the word you are looking for is "buffoon".

I was referencing the following article that was on CNN's website today (link) that said "...the H5N1 strain of bird flu has swept through poultry populations in many parts of Asia since 2003 and jumped to humans, killing 60 people, mostly through direct contact with sick foul."

Facts are facts and the fact of the matter is that the H5N1 strain has only killed 60 people since 2003. Being the same and being "essentially" the same are two different things.

And thank you so very much for pointing out my obvious spelling mistake. It's after 1 in the morning here and I tend to make some spelling mistakes when I get groggy. But thankfully I have smart people like you watching my back. I am so horribly embarrassed and am grateful that you could enlighten me on how to spell BUFFOON.

Just because it hasn't mutated just yet doesn't mean that it is not likely to follow that history.

Sure, viruses mutate...I'll give you that much. But I think the point of this post was whether or not we should be worried about all of this right now. Personally, I would rather worry about things that are certain and are currently affecting us, instead of obsessing and being frightened about things that could be or might happen.

When this bird flu becomes an actual pandemic and people are dropping dead by the thousands...then I'll start worrying about it. Until then, I'm going to take this as nothing more than the government trying to further frighten people and rally support for its crumbling administration. What else are we supposed to do in the meantime? Hide under our beds and shoot every chicken we see?

The current H5N1 Bird Flu might be a killer.

It might be a dud.

The public health problem remains.

Southern Asian countries don't have the money (Indonesia) or the infrastructure (China) to do proper biosurveillance, but that's where most of the influenza seems to develop. In the USA, our Wise and Courageous Leader would prefer to spend money on recreational wars. The pharmaceutical industry is loath to produce vaccine unless they are held harmless from ALL lawsuits. A similar, if somewhat less intransigent, situation holds in Europe.

In addition, given much larger human and animal populations, global warming, and factory-farming methods being used to breed poultry, the rate of mutation (it's now called polymorphism in medical literature if you ever want to do a Google or Medline search) has sped up tremendously.

Birds in nature don't spread viral material too fast, but a poultry factory may have 10,000 birds under one cramped roof, with sputum, feces, urine, skin dander, feathers, and other waste products getting spread around by all those frantic birds. This is a virus -- and bacteria -- breeding playground.

We seriously need to keep both things in mind -- the world has become incredibly dangerous largely as a result of our stupidity, AND the danger is being exploited by unscrupulous power-mongers like the Bush junta.

The cure for each is straightforward, but won't be easy. We need to reassert ourselves and dictate terms to our masters. No paranoia, no avoidable death-through-stupidity, no turning the Earth into a machine of mass pain and death. It's all of a piece, and we ought not tolerate another day of it.

--p!

if we wait until the pandemic arrives to prepare for it - GUESS WHAT? It will be too late to prepare.

Sounds like some of my less bright clients who want their cat's FVRCP shot when it comes into the hospital with a fever of 104 and sneezing gobs of snot. It's a little LATE.

Well, you're 100% right, I am not an expert on infectious diseases and never claimed to be. But this discussion was not about who has the most knowledge on diseases...it was about whether or not we should be scared (at least that's what I was getting out of the original post). So I'm going to leave the preparation for a possible outbreak up to the experts and I'm not going to start running around screaming that the sky is falling because the fact is we don't know! I mean seriously...what good is it going to do the general public to get all worried about something that may or may not happen. There are no vaccines available to us right now...our government does not have a good history of preparing for disasters, so the bottom line is, if it comes it's going to come and millions will potentially die. That's the hard fact. As Katrina showed us, our government doesn't seem to mind too much if a disaster culls out the "undesirable" parts of our population and somehow I doubt they are going to start caring anytime soon. The US government has made a big business for a long time now of stepping on the lower class population. It makes them more powerful and it makes them richer. And the fact that those cronies are still sitting up there in the White House just proves that the people of the US don't really care. So until that attitude changes...then yeah, expect a disaster when and if the bird flu arrives.

This comes from the same people who mailed anthrax to Tom Daschle and Pat Leahy.

Remember, just a few weeks back, there was a poster here (since disappeared, as far as I can tell) who had a handle of "Pandemic 1918" or something close to that spreading all kinds of scary stories about influenza.

Sure, I know different strains of influenza come and go, and some are worse than others, and some people die as a result.

But there are NO documented instances that I am aware of that show human-to-human transmission of this strain.

Look, just today I heard Bush at the Monkey Mansion talking about quarantining cities, stopping air traffic, and bringing in the military to enforce it.

Where are they going to get enough soldiers to stop travel in and out of a major city or entire region? They're already way short-handed.

The danger of *Bush's dropping poll numbers is far greater, in my opinion, than "bird flu" (notice the handy, two-syllable scary word) is right now.

Don't be afraid. They're trying to scare us.

I think they're full of bird droppings.

Since you know who mailed the anthrax to Tom Daschle and Pat Leahy, put your money where your mouth is and tell us or tell all the main media outlets at one time so the criminals can get punished. Or put your foot back in your mouth.

There are documented instances of human to human transmission of this bird flu. You haven't been paying much attention beyond deciding you have cracked a global conspiracy.

Bottom line: the flu is real, the threat is real, Bush's military is not the answer and must be resisted.

How could I possibly fit my money in my mouth with all the words you've tried to put in it?

Please introduce me to this documentation, and work on your manners. There's no reason to attack me. If this is true, you've got bigger fish to fry.

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

I have no reason to disbelieve what you are saying. I take you at your word, but I'll bet a lot of people here feel the same way as I do and have dismissed what this guy had to say. Many one-hit wonder types have come to DU to peddle ideas and then disappeared. I've seen it many times.

I'm not trained in the science involved in medicine and communicable diseases, so my first instinct was to think the poster was the Boy Who Cried Wolf. I'm perfectly willing to be wrong and remove my tinfoil hat if provided with evidence. If I dismissed this fellow and was wrong, then I regret it.

Why should I believe this in a world fraught with disinformation and fear? The Bush folks have done everything they can to scare the American people into compliance.

Honestly, I know there are many who have these questions about this bird flu thing. I just want the truth. The timing of Bush's pronouncements today are suspect. Surely you must agree that anything Bush says is to be treated with prejudice.

I would be sincerely grateful to you for showing me how very wrong I am. If you don't want it to be public, PM me.

Thanks.

way,

Bush is taking advantage of it, anything that will create panic, and chaos they like

So this is one of those cases where the history of medicine offers a guide. I am not an expert on virology, but am a Historian by training (and took many courses on the history of medicine and science)

So I can tell you from looking at the science, only the science, this is the pandemic that affects us as a species every so often. We have emerging diseases and every 100 years or so, we have one that basically racks some major damage... now none have risen to the level of the black death (which was not a virus, but is our favorite example). This one because of modern travel patterns etcetera has that chance.

Now influenza is a funny thing, every year the virus chances... and most of the time the virus reaches epidemic propurtions... (when whole regions are affected and iirc an epidemic is declared when a certain number of clusters show up), this one was the potential of being a pandemic.

Now let me worst case this from what I have read, just like 1918 it will affect a population that usually survives this... they have downgraded their absolute worst case but at one point they were talking one billion. Now let me reach for the other hat... emergency worker, who did plenty of disasters.... 1 billion is the absolute worst case where everything that cold go wrong, does.... chances are that will never happen (though you will admit bush would love it, imagine the chaos) The numbers they are now handling are horrific enough and their what I would call mid tier worst case, will do major damage to the world economies and commerce and all other happy horse

In an ideal world, and my friend and I have discussed this above, patient zero all over will be located in 12 hours and the bugger isolated... this is not an ideal world

This is why this is serious risk.

Now as to George, he will do all he can to take advantage of this... and if and when bird flu gets here... if he gets sick... oh well...

but you can be assured he will have tamiflu...

Respectfully, I appreciate your response and agree. The *Bushco response, or lack of it, is what concerns me, moreover the fear and hype they are generating is out of proportion to the threat.

But you say you've read, "just like 1918 it will affect a population that usually survives this... they have downgraded their absolute worst case but at one point they were talking one billion.just like 1918 it will affect a population that usually survives this... they have downgraded their absolute worst case but at one point they were talking one billion."

Where have you read this? That is what is frustrating to me. I've read many claims, but I've seen no credible sources.

That's where I need help, and that's what I'm hoping for from Silverhair and others here. Like I said, I just want to know the truth; I don't have an axe to grind, I'm just skeptical of the claims made here and elsewhere. That's not to say I'm closed-minded about it, I just need more.

Thanks again.

first estimates they said 1B, that was two years ago before ANYBODY, including the bush WH was paying attention.

And it was truly the worst possible case, they even said that back then. Sorry I did not save that particle article

Now I realize what they were doing, and most likely they sat down and started "war gaming" the shit, to use the technical term (war gaming) and realized that the worst case was 100 million, and that it will affect relatively healthy adult populations.

Now the 1B, to 100 m reflects the fact they know more now than they did two years ago.

Now to bush, the worst possible response, at least in my humble opinion, is martial law

Now don't think the military doesn't have a role here, they do. Both Army ARAMID lab at Fort Dietrich and CDC have the gear to isolate, rapidly generate the genetic material and even do part of the work needed to rapidly develop a vaccine. I am also betting that if this pandemic reaches the higher ranges, they will even use experimental medications, from rapidly isolated DNA sequences Remember they cannot make the vaccine until they have a sample

the other role for the army, and it is a very specific role, are medical Field units, to assist civilians in areas overwhelmed, most likely guard, but in 1918 even some federal units were involved.

There is a role, just not the one envisioned by bush.

that in 1918 the Spanish Flu had a good knack for killing perfectly healthy 20somethings. Typically not your average flu victim.

Human beings don't have any immunity to this Avian flu strains (except for the 40 or so people who survived it), which is why the lethality rates are so high.

If you want, take a look at my blog post about bird flu from March, you may find some more information:

http://www.niese.com/mind/2005/03/stupid-fucking-chickens_111033218689519993.html


And for heavens sake, google "1918 flu pandemic"

Good luck
D

First we really do not know the lethality rate...we only know the lethality rate for those who have been hospitalized. It is entirely possible that others have been infected and simply did not get sick enough to seek treatment.

Second, even if it is this lethal, it is because it is engineered to infect birds, not humans. This is why it is so hard to catch. FOr example, my understadning is there has not been one case of bird to human transmission among the chicken farmers of Thailand, even though they live cheek by jowl (or fowl), with them. Those that are catching it are coming into close repeated contact with blood or feces (those involved in cockfighting for example, who suck blood out of wounded birds).

The 1918 pandemic bred in the fetid trenches of WWI, where it spread rapidly among soldiers. Of course those soldiers were young men. This is why it was so virulent. We do not have that situation now. And it is highly likely that most of those who died in 1918, died of secondary bacterial infections. No antibiotics in 1918!

Wow, you learn something new on DU everyday! :eyes:

They want to control ALL of us in the worst way that you can almost smell it.

Agree that they are full of nothing but bird droppings! Maybe the bird flu is possible years from now...but right now they've seized upon the threat of it to hype the hell out it! :grr:

infectious disease experts have seen this one coming down the pipe for a while and Bush was ignoring them. FINALLY somebody or something got through to him: he probably saw a way he could use it to his political advantage. But that is not the same thing as inventing a threat out of whole cloth.

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/gen-info/facts.htm

My Readers Digest version of the facts listed in the link above:

* Avian bird flu virus is carried naturally in the intestines of wild birds.

* Food birds (chicken, duck etc) can catch the virus if they come into contact with the spit, snot or poop of infected wild animals.

* People can catch the virus when coming into the contact of the infected birds. And by "coming into contact" I mean handling the excretions from the infected cluck cluck. Do you make a habit of handling poultry poop? If not, you're on the right track.

* You wouldn't know this watching the news, but the virus has not mutated yet to jump from human to human. The virus is not airborne.

* The virus is nowhere to be found on this continent. none. nada. zilch.

* Can it mutate? Will it? Anything is possible and the docs are keeping an eye on it but so far, you're safe.

* Does it currently warrant a conversation on military quarantine? HELL NO.

* What can you do to stay safe? WASH YOUR HANDS! You should be doing this anyway regardless. Also, if your hobby is traveling to certain Asian countries and playing with chicken poop, then suspend your hobby for now. Take a break, collect stamps or something.

But I have to admit that all these snake oil salesmen out there have me thinking...a lot. Starting to remind me of all the Y2K con artists.

Don

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&ned=tus&q=tamiflu&btnmeta%3Dsearch%3Dsearch=Search+the+Web

I watched a special on PBS that showed one of the survivors, a nurse who was assigned to a bird flu patient. A doctor working on the bird flu also died from human to human transmission.
So far, there have been about 11 clusters were it appears that bird flu victims passed it on to family members.

It wouldn't have to be a case of human to human transmission.
The problem would be if anybody who got the bird flu had a regular flu infection at the same time. Anyone who gets it while he has another version of flu could cause an outbreak. The viral DNA could combine, and the possibility exists that we could wind up with the increased lethality of the H5N1 bird flu, with the ease of transmission of the normal virus.
Will it definitely happen? No.
Could it happen? Yes.

The 1918 Spanish Flu was a bird flu virus. It killed millions world-wide. Its mortality rate was two and a half percent.It killed more people than any other outbreak of disease, including the Black Death. One billion people were infected, half the worlds population at the time. The mortality rate of H5N1 is more like 50%. You do the math.
I'd rather we were prepared than not.

Bush and his cronies have done the same thing with this as they did with New Orleans. They gambled that a big hurricane wouldn't strike New Orleans and lost.
They have done nothing to prepare for the potential flu pandemic either. Other countries have been stockpiling anti-virals against such a possibility. We haven't. They have a Brownie clone in charge of the response. He hasn't done squat.

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0510/08/smn.01.html

<snip>DR. WALTER ORENSTEIN, EMORY UNIVERSITY: Well, we really don't know how serious it will be. There are several things that make us concerned -- the spread in Asia, the numbers of people who have been infected so far and the fact that the virus is mutating and becoming more virulent.

On the other hand, we've seen no evidence of human to human transmission, which is necessary for a severe pandemic. So I think a much more likely scenario this season will be our traditional influenza outbreaks, where 36,000 people die, on average, and over 200,000 are hospitalized. So I hope everybody listening in who needs influenza...

>> There have been probable cases of human-to-human transmission before but this is the first in which the person infected - the mother - contracted severe illness and died. It proves the virus can be passed from person to person without losing its lethality. <<

The above comment, with regard to the case cluster in Thailand, published in the New England Journal of Medicine, is not true. The current H5N1 pandemic, which began in December, 2003 has generated at least 9 familial clusters of cases, resulting in 11 likely human to human transmissions, and 8 of the 11 have died (one was in critical condition Jan 22). Unfortunately, the efficiency of human to human transmission of fatal H5N1 influenza is much higher than transmission of H5N1 from birds to humans.

The misconception quoted above, comes from repeated comments from WHO that human to human transmission of H5N1 is very rare. These comments are supported by a flawed database. Collecting and testing of samples, especially for index cases of familial clusters, is poor. Of the 9 clusters, no sample was collected from the index case in 4 instances, including the cluster published in the New England Journal of Medicine. However, the clinical presentation is quite clear and in each cluster a relative has been laboratory confirmed, so there is little doubt that the fatal cases of children or young adults were due to H5N1. However, WHO excludes these cases, thereby eliminating the cluster. These clusters however, answer many questions about human to human transmission of H5N1 this season and last, in Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia.


http://www.recombinomics.com/News/02040503/Efficient_Human_Transmission_H5N1.html

...some credibility I will be happy to take a look.

Don

That's not good enough? That's where my husband read about it.

in this area. So he may not exactly be an impartial observer.

Usually, to get a patent on something, you have to know a LOT about it. Patents are not exactly given to ignorant people.

transmission. They are speculative.

The articles are from over seas, they use the words "probable" and "apparent", and "suggested."

"Human-to-human transmission of influenza A (H5N1) has been suggested in several household clusters16 and in one case of apparent child-to-mother transmission. Intimate contact without the use of precautions was implicated, and so far no case of human-to-human transmission by small-particle aerosols has been identified."

In viet nam:

"The New England Journal of Medicine
Volume 350:1179-1188 March 18, 2004 Number 12

Avian Influenza A (H5N1) in 10 Patients in Vietnam

"There was no definitive evidence of human-to-human transmission. Eight patients died, one patient has recovered, and one is recovering"
............
The New England Journal of Medicine

Volume 352:333-340 January 27, 2005 Number 4

Probable Person-to-Person Transmission of Avian Influenza A (H5N1)
Results The index patient became ill three to four days after her last exposure to dying household chickens. Her mother came from a distant city to care for her in the hospital, had no recognized exposure to poultry, and died from pneumonia after providing 16 to 18 hours of unprotected nursing care. The aunt also provided unprotected nursing care; she had fever five days after the mother first had fever, followed by pneumonia seven days later. Autopsy tissue from the mother and nasopharyngeal and throat swabs from the aunt were positive for influenza A (H5N1) by RT-PCR. No additional chains of transmission were identified, and sequencing of the viral genes identified no change in the receptor-binding site of hemagglutinin or other key features of the virus. The sequences of all eight viral gene segments clustered closely with other H5N1 sequences from recent avian isolates in Thailand.

Conclusions Disease in the mother and aunt probably resulted from person-to-person transmission of this lethal avian influenzavirus during unprotected exposure to the critically ill index patient.
< Probable is not scientific proof- you can;t prove a negative>
.......



..........
Clinical presentation:

"However, the clinical presentation is quite clear and in each cluster a relative has been laboratory confirmed, so there is little doubt that the fatal cases of children or young adults were due to H5N1."

The clinical presentation is not clear.

"Case detection is confounded by the nonspecificity of initial manifestations of illness, so that detailed contact and travel histories and knowledge of viral activity in poultry are essential. " -NEJM
.........

"Unfortunately, the efficiency of human to human transmission of fatal H5N1 influenza is much higher than transmission of H5N1 from birds to humans." where did this come from?

Please site that source.

............
Here are some references and the citations from NEJM, also WHO and other articles. Check these ut for more info.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x2150860

Information on Bird flu, from NEJM and W.H.O.
............

In summary, the possibility of a pandemic viral infection with high mortality rate is possible and has been predicted in an article in Science 2003.

Whether the media is over playing it- as they do with everything- hey it snowed somewhere today, the end times are here!

And whether we are prepared for it- if and when it comes is another matter.

And whether we trust shrub to plan for this is a whole other issue.

I would not discount this concern from the scientific community and asking questions and informing ourselves as we are doing here is absolutely correct.

Peace.

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

we have a real catastrophe on our hands

apparently the media is bored w. reality & prefers science-fiction scenarios

excuse me, this nation has REAL issues at the moment

old re-readings of "the stand" are just that, old

Seems the CDC won't send the vaccine.

Patience Zero: Influenza as Population Control
It's been a year since we first reported on deadly manufactured flu virii, and sure enough, here comes martial law and quarantine zones.
By Matt Hutaff Oct 11, 2005

(snip)
As I said last year, the flu is the perfect biological weapon. Natural strains alone claim hundreds of lives. The virii spread rapidly through population centers and only need one host to infect all those around them.

Developing new sickness as a means of working towards potential cure is circular and stupid. If the disease hadn't been grown in a Petri dish, why spend millions to search for a cure? Do the means to justify the ends? No. Studying genetically modified contagion won't produce any safeguards for influenzas that mutate in nature. The only scientific benefit derived from such studies is money.

(snip)

http://www.thesimon.com/magazine/articles/canon_fodder/0985_patience_zero_influenza_population_control.html

CS. I can be just as tenacious as any flu.

Thats where I'm going.

Don

I just got a letter today - is that hitting home or what?

you will have the tamiflu

:D

and for instructions IIRC you need to take it fairly eary

This sucks :(

My husband's practice got it in late last week. Your doc might have it now.

They won't have the H5N1 vaccine, as that's still in testing and not available yet, but there is some evidence that even a regular influenza vaccine might provide some coverage this year. They're still not sure, of course, but it's better to be safe and get it.

of vaccine. They love seeing people jump through hoops and get scared. Please note, worldwide only 60 people have died of this disease. It's a ruse!!

always gets announced to draw attention away from some scandal or another..

About 80 of them died.

Could be one of hundreds of things. Am I going to sit here and worry myself sick over it? Nope. If the bird flu gets me, there is a HUGE silver lining. No more * . :evilgrin:

I don't know why people fear death so much. My family and I joke about it. Always have. We're ALL going to die folks. The only question is how. If I go before 'old age,' so be it.

:D

In the mean time, I'm more concerned about Bushler/Cheney/Rummy's genocide, Rove's treason, the destruction of New Orleans, voter fraud, endless war, the Patriot Acts, Frist and DeLay's bullshit, etc. ad infinitum.

Just don't attack those of us who follow it and remain concerned. My husband is an internist who has to deal with the flu every year, and he's scared that we really won't be prepared and will get hit hard. He knows just how stretched thin the medical resources in our small city are, and he's scared for his patients. I don't personally know any doctor who isn't.

The thing is, we're at risk for a major flu pandemic every year as the seasons come and go and the bug mutates again. That may be why you doubt it. That's the nature of the thing, though, and not something made up.

fact that there appears to be an all out assault on the American people from all the news networks that this is imminent and millions are going to die. Almost like Saddam has WMD and we are 45 minutes from being nuked.

I just read my hubby's med journals, some other magazines like Harper's and The Nation, and here for my news sources.

I have seen that some of your posts here seem highly critical of anyone who says that it's a real threat. You may not be attacking the posters, but you do seem angry that we've bought into the lies, so to speak. You question the links some have given, and you seem truly angry about this.

Look, I understand everyone questioning the MSM and their scare tactics, I truly do, but I also know that this issue keeps my husband up nights trying to figure out how to keep his patients safe and healthy. It has for years, actually, and often is something he thinks about and tries to plan for. He is in the trenches with the flu, so to speak, and sees much more of it than most. He's lost patients to influenza and all the attendent problems, and he doesn't want an epidemic on his hands. The issue is real, even if the MSM is being stupid about it.

understand what I am talking about. It went as far as a promo for Scarborough Country with a sinister voice over with sinister music.

Asking for links to back-up statements is not being angry. I am genuinely curious if I am misinformed and want clarification as to what is happening. I have not once attacked anyone and if you can show me where I have in your estimation, I would appreciate it.

As to medical journals. There are doctors who are coming on to MSM preaching doom and gloom, and yet who are most of them? How many "doctors and scientists" have backed the agenda of this administration with voodo science? ie no pollution problems, no problems with the tremendously elevated levels of mercury, no global warming etc.

I do realize that flus are a very real problem and do take thousands of lives a year, affecting the elderly, the infirmed and very young, but I honestly believe that this avian flu is being used as a scare tactic used to keep America very afraid. Fear is the easiest way to control the very many by the very few. A tactic that has been used since the beginning of recorded history.

I also believe that with the shrub's wanting to use the army (martial law) as a tool to "quarantine" us, is very disturbing. This man will not stop at anything...after all God does talk to him.

I had misinterpreted your tone, and for that, I apologize.

As for doctors looking into H5N1, I found some links:

http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/short/352/7/686 (a New England Journal case presentation from last February before the MSM hype started)

http://www.info.gov.hk/dh/useful/ltod/h5n12003.htm (on apparently the same case from the Dept. of Health in Hong Kong as an advisory to doctors here on what to look for)

http://www.idsociety.org/Content/NavigationMenu/Resources/Avian_Pandemic_Flu/Avian_Pandemic_Flu.htm (The Infectious Disease Society of America--the group that certifies the infectious disease specialists)

Influenza often is overcome by healthy individuals, that's true, but a more lethal version of the virus will be difficult to beat, even for young, healthy adults. We are ahead of the game in that we have antibiotics and antivirals as well as better medical care than we had in 1918, but if H5N1 keeps its lethal percentage at the 60% or so that we're seeing and becomes easier to transmit, then we really are in trouble.

My husband is also concerned about getting the military involved in martial quarantines. He's not so sure it's a good idea and worried Bush or whomever's in charge will deploy it too soon or in the wrong area. He thinks the best answer is to keep pushing the vaccines we have and get a national health care system up and running as soon as possible. Barring that, he's trying to get the word out that his practice is hiring and needing another internist. More hands will help in the case of an epidemic.

We've already seen how other nations have greatly benefitted from having national health care, and we've already seen how badly we fare in a crisis (doctors turned away in New Orleans and patients not evacuated from all health facilities in time, etc.). He's worried that many will die needlessly because our system is based on the capitalist model, which always ensures crappy care to too many.

provided me. Thank you for that too. And thank your husband for being a caring physician. Being one of the uninsured millions of citizens I am so glad that he recognizes the need for a national health care system. Our country started it in Europe with the Marshall plan, and it was hands down rejected here, and continues to be so as long as it is the medical industry is considered a big business with huge dividends.

Have a wonderful evening!

I've been without insurance myself, and it sucks. I found it a low level nerve wracking thing (wondering after a near miss in the car how we'd pay for an accident, that kind of thing). Luckily, nothing too bad happened that year, but it could've been otherwise.

I always tell my husband that God will strike us dead if we ever forget what it was like to live without insurance or how hard it was to live on the little bit we had when he was in med school (we lived on extra school loans and my Catholic school teacher salary--very, very tight). He worries about his patients because he knows what it's like to live that way, and he works with the other partners and doctors in the practice to keep them good to the patients who have trouble paying, too.

As Hubby always says, medicine should never have been put on the capitalist business model because it just isn't. It's not capitalist, and it's not a business in the real sense of the word. It infuriates him that there are people out there pulling in money hand over fist (paging Dr. Frist) while so many are suffering and so many doctors are working their butts off just to stay afloat.

Enjoy your evening, too. I hope it's not too cold where you are yet. We're already fighting over the thermostat. :)

I'll believe the World Health Organization (WHO).

but I read somewhere that 36,000 people in the U.S. alone die from the regular flu every year - so I guess I don't get the "panic" stage yet.

Maybe it is because I am old enough to clearly remember the whole "Swine Flu" scare.

http://www.haverford.edu/biology/edwards/disease/viral_essays/warnervirus.htm

I realize people can die from this - I just don't see the reason for the general public to panic. Report it when it gets here - and work on stocking up good vaccines. What else can you really do right now? What good is the fear mongering?

The US is way behind on this. We have only enough for 2.8% of our population. Some European countries have enough for all their citizens.
Thats what we get for letting Bush put another crony in charge.
Also, Homeland Security has just been put in charge of the response to a pandemic. You think they will do a good job?

I would rather stock up on masks and pedialyte myself than trust those buffoons - what else do I need??

You'll need a 5 day supply. Have them available. If the Bird Flu strikes you'll know it. Start taking them when you start to show symptoms. Ask your doctor for the dosing directions.
That is basically all you would need.

The vaccine's in the testing phase right now. Once it passes the tests, then we'll stockpile it.

Avian Flu & its possible mutation to a form that easily transmits between humans has been discussed for years by the WHO & others. Influenza Pandemics have been long-term subjects of serious concern. How would vaccines be created & mass produced quickly? How would the public health system deal with so many patients?

The 1918-19 Pandemic killed 500,000 in the US. The Asian Flu of 1957-58 killed 70,000 in the US. The 1968-69 Hong Kong Flu killed 34,000--again, these are only US figures.

Of course the MSM are screaming their heads off--when they are not telling us that Tom Cruise will be a daddy. Of course the Bush regime will use the issue in the worst way possible. Would you expect anything else?

What is the goal of a terrorist?

To instill fear.

Any questions?

Researchers at the Univ. of Rochester have come up with a vaccine. They are NOW conducting part of the study on the effectiveness on older people. The first round of tests were on younger people and Scientists were pleased with the results. This story was on the BACK page of the L.A. Times. Remember, good news dosen't sell.

If there does turn out to be a viral problem, Bush will have exacerbated it, because he's against loosening provisions to allow generic flu meds.

What next, aliens from outer space?