Tropical Storm Wilma new models--watch out Florida west coast

The historic Hurricane Season of 2005 now has the distinction of being the busiest ever. Wilma's formation this morning gives 2005 21 named storms, equaling the mark set in 1933. With over six weeks still left in hurricane season, that mark will likely be surpassed.

After struggling for two days as a tropical depression, Wilma finally put together a sustained, intense burst of deep convection this morning that propelled her to tropical storm strength. This convective burst is only on the south side of the center of circulation, and the storm still has a long way to go before attaining hurricane status. Dry air is intruding on the northwest side, and the upper level outflow is established only on the east side of the storm. Still, the overall satellite signature is rather ominous and impressive, with a large envelope of thickening clouds on the eastern side of the storm. The wind shear is still very low--about five knots, and expected to stay low. The last hurricane hunter mission left the storm at 4:30 pm EDT Sunday, so the exact strength of the storm is not known at this point. There is not another mission scheduled until 2 pm EDT today. The NOAA jet is scheduled to make its first flight Tuesday afternoon.

The forecast guidance still predicts that this will be Hurricane Wilma by Wednesday. Wilma will spend the next three days in a low-shear environment with water temperatures of 30 C (86 F), which should allow intensification into at least a Category 2 storm, perhaps even a Category 3. Wilma reminds me of Rita, which spent about three days trying to organize in the Bahamas before finally solidifying its inner core and rapidly intensifying. This storm may behave similarly.
http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/
000
WTNT34 KNHC 171446
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 8...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2005

CORRECTED TO ADD RAINFALL STATEMENT FOR HONDURAS.

...WILMA STRENGTHENING...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR
HONDURAS...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO CABO CAMARON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.0 WEST OR ABOUT
220 MILES... 355 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT
230 MILES... 370 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH ... 7 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND WILMA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO
3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE
OVER HONDURAS.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...16.3 N... 80.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


$$
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/171446.shtml

After X, Y, and Z, who's next?

There are no x,y,z.
The next tropical event will be named "Alpha".

On edit:
That will be historic...there has never been an "alpha".

Wilma is the last name on the list. Then it is going to the Greek Alphabet.

I just hope it keeps tracking East. Both the Yucatan and Central Gulf Coast have had enough. Too bad it won't just go out to sea somewhere or fizzle out.

WILLLLMMMAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



Well, as I live on the East Coast, I won't start holding my breath just yet...

Time for the Xanax.:scared:

Winds aren't up much from early this a.m.

I'll be contemplating the terror and devastation of hurricanes this winter. Hoping to make me feel lucky to only be shoveling snow.