The Dow Jones will close below 10,000 on Friday

I will predict the Dow Jones average will close below 10,000 on Friday. As many of you know, it hasn't been below 10,000 in a while, and dipping below is significant.

Get ready for the clacking on Fox News and other organs "it's bad for the economy!"

There are reasons other than the indictments, but they are what will tilt the scales. Contributing - the new bankruptcy filings, the decrease in mortgage applications, and the generally stale conditions.

Please add your thoughts.

http://www.webcomicsnation.com/neillisst/

They've been anticipated for well over a week, and the markets are famous for anticipating things, so any possible effect should already be already calculated.

Denial doesn't give up easily, and that is true of the markets. Certainly they have had time to accept the indictments, but the market is a fancy game of liar's poker. When everyone is looking at Friday afternoon and uncertain how everyone else will react, the SELL order is easier than the BUY order to make.

More sellers than buyers equals BEAR trending down.

The market is already stale, and in my view, is already overinflated. It's got a good 500 points of air in it right now, and that air is gonna come out.

I strongly believe there is a 2006 recession coming.


http://www.webcomicsnation.com/neillisst/%

So it's been six months, not a year.

I suppose you are referring to the last time The Dow actualy CLOSED below 10,000. Then your statement would be correct. However there were two intra-day lows below 10K in April. 9,978.74 on 4/20, and 9,961.52 on 4/18.

Carry On. :)

300+ in 2 days? I'd be tempted to take some of that action. I'm no economist, but I'd think the moneymen might just shrug and say "how can I make this work for me"

in the markets: people who can't afford to, and people who can.

Dipping below 10,000 would require a drop of almost 4%--which would take some really bad news, probably something much worse than indictments.

heard on the business hour on KNX in los angeles tod ay. one of the talking heads who says the real estate binge is over, that sales will still stay healthy but the 20% a year increase in price is doa.

msongs
www.msongs.com/political-shirts.htm

The market doesn't like uncertainty. Personally, I think it will have no effect.

I have been suggesting to her it is a good idea to move it out.
They lost more than I will make in a lifetime last year in the market, and I doubt they will be able to sustain their lifestyle if it happens again.

The market is governed most by its herd mentality. If something spooks the herd, real or imagined danger, it bolts.

The market dropped below 10K a year ago, and I think it'll do it again, probably Friday, but certainly by Tuesday.

Of course, I could be wrong. I mean, it hasn't been below 10K in a year, so if it does fall below 10K, that would be extraordinary, right?

http://www.webcomicsnation.com/neillisst/

The Dow is only 200 points above 10K.

Oh, yeah. It's closing below 10K tomorrow.


Or today's comic isn't about Darth Cheney.
http://www.webcomicsnation.com/neillisst/

it would have to drop over 230 points. The indictments won't have that effect. If it drops that much it will be in reaction to Microsoft's disappointing earnings report. A lot will depend on whether the consumer confidence report due out tomorrow is above or below expectations. And I don't know what other earnings reports are due out -- the oil companies are expected to report record profits in the next few days, so that could have an impact too.

onenote

eom

Watergate, although one would presumably have to factor in the Vietnam War. 1973 and 1974 were awful years for the markets.

1973 and 1974 were awful years for the markets


they were also awful years for the country...

So is 2005--an awful year for our country. That's why a major correction would not surpise me one bit.

thanks anyway

This market has been like an elephant trying to walk across a tight rope for almost a year. There is no logical reason why we should not have had a MAJOR correction long before now. However, the fragile illusions that have been holding it in place are crumbling one by one.

Anyone who believes the market will drastically correct may want to short the indexes or invest in an inverse fund--I mean, that would seem to make sense to me.

After all was said and done today:

DJIA 10229.95 -115.03 (-1.11%)
NASDAQ 2063.81 -36.24 (-1.73%)
NYSE 7263.32 -71.45 (-0.97%)
S&P 500 1178.90 -12.48 (-1.05%)

It's certainly possible for the DOW to lose 229.95 in a day but not very probable. I do think indictments will play into things tomorrow but I don't think the powers-that-be would let things go too south.

Just my .0125

Julie

Sorry should have thought of that sooner.

Our "society" is about stomping the other man down in order to further one's self. Quite the opposite of anything even remotely "Christian". Never mind all the other ways it chooses to be hurtful, selfish, greedy, and spiteful.

And I encourage * to sell more weapons freely to China's enemies too. He sold some to Taiwan, I gather... Sell some more.

Now if our corprate leaders choose to cut back on their own salaries and do our communities REAL things like giving workers decent paid jobs and healthcare rather than being greedy prigs, then I'll change my tune.

(As it is. I nearly had a hypoglycemic-induced unconscious spell today. And I take my declining health as a blessing. For it is far more generous than my ambient environment.)

today's standards. It is painful, but not even close to being a crash. The market would have to drop two thousand points for it to approximately equal the crash of 1987.

Edited "one to two thousand" to "two thousand."

Funny you should mention 1987.

I think we are on the verge of a serious recession. What passes for business logic in many quarters these days is nonsense. People think indicators are more significant than they are. The Dow is healthier than the national economy, largely because hedging is a constant factor.

With the new bankruptcy law in effect, bankruptcy filings off the chart, and mortgage apps down, we're headed into a downturn. All this happy talk is whistling through the graveyard.

permanent. They will BUY just to show their support. They don't give a rats ass about Right wing fundie concerns. It is all about the money. I predict it will go up.

depends on profit and money money money, I would not be surprised if the market hung together no matter what those bacteria-ridden leeches do against the middle class.

1) There have been more positive earning reports this month than negative.

2) Q3 (Oct) is historically painful

3) Oil and gas have pulled back from the highs

4) No radical change in Fed policy expected

5) Increased buying in Nov is expected after this oct sell off.

Just my thoughts... Now is the time to grab some shares and position yourself for Q4/Q1.

MZr7

you can thank me tomorrow afternoon, Mr. Bull Market

I'll either gloat or eat crow in this thread tomorrow.... *LOL

MZr7

Pride points.

I could be wrong, but I think it's going south of the 10K line.

You may gloat ... NOW.

No Rove indictment = no dip below 10K today.

dammit

The housing market is slowing down but unempoyment hasn't spiked as high as anticipated...

The S&P multiples show that the market is actually undervalued....

(hopefully tomorrow), the Dow will drop below 10,000.

When the stock market drops, its not just fatcats that get hurt. You do realize that, right?

onenote

Thanks Dr. Keynes.

I was talking to grown-ups, FYI.

...worrying about what you post."

Thanks for playing.

Bye!

indicted, it won't dip below 10K today. My prediction was based upon the belief that Rove would be indicted today. Now that I know he won't be indicted, I will acknowledge that the Dow won't drop below 10K today.

If he gets indicted, it will drop below 10K, but that isn't going to happen today, according to morning reports.

I really do not believe that most people here even understand that they are about to get their butts kicked now too, through 401ks or other pension plans.

Yeah, it is going to happen. I do not know a technician in this country who thinks otherwise tonight.

But there are some very black days coming ahead here. I am sick to my stomache about this. It is like some penance we have to pay for allowing this man to continue in power.

But we can always get the money back in time. It is a necessary thing that has to happen for the country to continue on, past this terrible mess.

Best to you,

Joe

But the rich have gotten much richer, (as have the corporations) since the imbecile took office.

The Dow is lower now, even if it doesn't go below 10K...So much for the bullshit, "roaring economy".

and feel free to kickin a Greatest vote for our hard working Marketeers...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x1883874

Morning talks and the NYT seem to think only Libby gets indicted today. If so, that will likely keep the Dow above 10K.

If Rove gets indicted, though, it falls below 10K.

.... about a one-day move, although the market has been exceptionally "frothy" the last few weeks.

But over the longer term the downside potential is much much greater than the upside, of that I'm certain.

I felt certain he would be indicted. Now, it appears he won't be. No one gives a crap about Libby, in spite of his position and power.

If only Libby gets indicted today, then the markets have no reason to move downward.

I'm very disappointed in Fitz, if he's not indicting Rove.

i learned that the hard way-ouch-homey dont play that game no more

anyway it seems like the real crusher for the middle lower class is the weakening dollar that will make goods really expensive---sticking with my friday close prediction-10,318

2:30PM: Showing no sign of losing steam, the market extends its reach...
Topping the S&P's best performers list today, the personal products group has surged 12% on account of Avon's (AVP 28.47 +3.76) early morning earnings report. Gains levied by Avon, Alberto Culver (ACV 44.09 +0.77) and Gillette (which was acquired by Proctor & Gamble this month) have sent personal products higher not only today, but have placed the group number ten of the S&P's 139 subsects during the fourth quarter. On that quarter-to-date basis, however, the metal and glass sect reigns, followed by diversified chemicals, airlines, and internet software and services. The quarter's laggard is IT consulting and services, off 23.8% and trailed by auto manufacturers and construction materials.NYSE Adv/Dec 2251/922, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1380/1087

2:00PM: Continuing to run, all three of the major indices break out of the narrow range established at noon. The session's invasive bullishness is further evidenced by the performance of nearly every U.S. index. Of them, the Russell 2000 outperforms and currently posts a 1.2% gain. On a year-over-year basis, however, midcaps outrun small caps as well as the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq. To that end, the S&P 400 is up 2.3% on the year and 1% today.NYSE Adv/Dec 2151/1000, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1759/1134

1:30PM: The indices establish fresh highs as buyers' momentum accelerates. Today's action has sent the Utilities sector back to the top of the S&P; up 1.5% and sporting gains in 31 of its 33 constituents, it places first amid the nine other rising sectors. Tech continues to stand last, although pressure in semiconductors has somewhat eased and allowed the sector to maintain a 0.3% gain. Microsoft (MSFT 25.40 +0.55) and...