Reading the Tea Leaves in the 2005 Elections (Nice Summary)

NPR.org, November 4, 2005 · There are several different kinds of election cycles, each with a distinctive character. The big one, of course, is a presidential election year, in which the chief executive is elected, along with a third of the Senate and the entire House of Representatives. A midterm election, such as those in 2002 or 2006, gets quite a bit of attention, too. Although there's no presidential contest then, often the battles in the House and Senate (and in many cases those for governor) are a reaction to or a referendum of the policies of the man in the White House. The midterm election year of 1994, in which Republicans took control of Congress, is widely seen as a reaction to the presidential election year of 1992, when Bill Clinton won his first term.

Then there is the kind of election cycle we are going through this year: far fewer contests nationally, much less at stake, and often much harder to make any kind of grand political pronouncements. Given the fact that all we are talking about are gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey, mayoral contests in a handful of major cities (led by New York and Detroit), and a bevy of ballot initiatives and referenda, it's hard to find any real "message" from the results. But sometimes this particular election cycle has something to say.

The best example came in 1989, a banner year for Democrats, abortion rights proponents, and African-American candidates. Douglas Wilder became the nation's first black governor since Reconstruction with his win in Virginia. New York City also elected its first black mayor, David Dinkins. And James Florio ran on the issue of abortion rights to win the governorship of New Jersey. Many people saw this as foreshadowing the victory of Bill Clinton as president in 1992.

Fast forward to 1993, another year in this cycle. A Republican, James Gilmore, won the Virginia governorship. New York City ousted Mayor Dinkins in favor of Republican Rudy Giuliani. New Jersey dumped Gov. Florio and replaced him with Republican Christine Todd Whitman. A trifecta for the GOP, and it was followed a year later by the Republican takeover of both the House and Senate.

So sometimes, the elections in this particular cycle can portend what's to come. Regardless of whether some "great meaning" emerges from Tuesday's results, there are nonetheless some elections worth watching for what they might reveal about the public mood. Here's a race-by-race synopsis:

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VIRGINIA GOVERNOR: Prediction: Kaine.

NEW JERSEY GOVERNOR: Prediction: Corzine.

NEW YORK CITY MAYOR: Prediction: Bloomberg.

DETROIT MAYOR: Prediction: Hendrix.

SAN DIEGO MAYOR: Prediction: Sanders.

OTHER MAYORAL RACES OF NOTE

Atlanta: Mayor Shirley Franklin favored
Boston: Mayor Thomas Menino heavily favored
Houston: Mayor Bill White, a Democrat, heavily favored
Minneapolis: Mayor R.T. Rybak favored
St. Paul: Mayor Randy Kelly is badly trailing