Interesting NYT article: Is Tamiflu as hard to make as Roche says it is?

Is Bird Flu Drug Really So Vexing? Debating the Difficulty of Tamiflu
By ANDREW POLLACK
Published: November 5, 2005

If a bird flu pandemic breaks out, the world's ability to fight back may come down to an ancient Chinese cooking spice - or the perseverance of people like Professor Frost.

The Chinese spice, star anise, provides the starting material for the manufacture of the anti-influenza drug Tamiflu, which is expected to be the first line of defense in a pandemic.

But there is probably not enough star anise in China or anywhere else to meet the rapidly growing global demand for Tamiflu. That could mean that Tamiflu production cannot be ramped up, even if the maker, Roche, bows to pressure to allow other companies to manufacture the drug.

The professor is John W. Frost, a chemist at Michigan State University who developed a technique for making the starting material, shikimic acid, without the coveted star anise. Roche has used Professor Frost's method in recent years, in fact, but he says he heard the company had cut back. Undeterred, Professor Frost is starting a company that he says could produce huge quantities of the material....

***

Roche has said the manufacturing process requires 10 steps that take six to eight months once the raw materials are in hand. It also says that some steps in production are potentially hazardous because they involve the use of sodium azide, the chemical that makes automobile air bags inflate in an explosive rush. The company says it would take a newcomer two to three years to be able to start production....

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/05/business/05tamiflu.html

"Roche has used Professor Frost's method in recent years, in fact, but he says he heard the company had cut back."

Ok, why is this?

Most recently, Junior got involved with the bird-flu issue and has been coordinating with Roche, to get more Tamiflu out there.

Why would they be cutting back on production?

Isn't this the time to ramp up?

Or are they trying to kill us all?

Sometimes I feel like I'm a NOLA citizen, and there's a hurricane barreling toward me. I don't know if it will hit. If it does, it will be devastating. It's a bit disconcerting to know that we're relying on a total leadership failure and psychopath to make sure things go ok.

We're on our own in this folks. Whether you believe bird flu is hype or not--whatever the outcome--you will have to fend for yourself.

n/t