You know, Kaine and Kilgore were in a dead heat before Bush came to VA

oxbow

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Tue Nov-08-05 10:50 PM
Original message

You know, Kaine and Kilgore were in a dead heat before Bush came to VA

Edited on Tue Nov-08-05 10:57 PM by oxbow

and now look at the results:

GOVERNOR
Virginia Vote
2,351 of 2,426 (96 %) Precincts Reporting
Tim Kaine 975,875 52 %
Jerry Kilgore 873,927 46 %

What makes this even more interesting is that Republicans won both the liuetenant governor and attorney general seats in VA. (Kaine was the last Lt. governor):

LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR
Virginia Vote
2,344 of 2,426 (96 %) Precincts Reporting
Bill Bolling 939,466 51 %
Leslie Byrne 906,486 49 %
Back to the Race Index

ATTORNEY GENERAL
Virginia Vote
2,342 of 2,426 (96 %) Precincts Reporting
Robert McDonnell 926,086 50 %
Creigh Deeds 919,028 50 %

http://www.wwbtads.com/returns/

As has been said before, VA is a red state. Who knows, maybe the GOP could have even had a clean sweep if commander cuckoobananas hadn't stopped by. Either way, I'm willing to wager that he's not gonna have many takers for these kinds of stunts in the '06 elections. No, if GOP candidates know what's good for them, they'll keep away from him like a skunk! the new meme is: get too close to Bush and you'll end up stinkin!

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niallmac

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Tue Nov-08-05 10:52 PM
Response to Original message

1. Big 'message' vote. IMHO nt

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opihimoimoi

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Tue Nov-08-05 10:53 PM
Response to Reply #1

4. Bush and Rove are now sulking and licking their wounds....

callouses on the tongues even....

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msongs

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Tue Nov-08-05 10:53 PM
Response to Original message

2. ya can't run AND ya can't hide nt

Msongs
www.msongs.com/chinamart.htm

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Lancer

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Tue Nov-08-05 10:53 PM
Response to Original message

3. It's ironic that Democrats avoided

being seen with Clinton in 2000 even though he HAD been impeached. This is a strange and wonderfully schizophrenic country we live in.

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C_U_L8R

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Tue Nov-08-05 10:58 PM
Response to Original message

5. Bush and Rove....

are now political poison ivy....
toxic goo that no one wants on em,
near em or anywhere in the vicinity.

Booo Hooooo

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oxbow

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Tue Nov-08-05 11:01 PM
Response to Original message

6. yep, at first I thought that Bush's visit had just energized the Dem base.

Edited on Tue Nov-08-05 11:02 PM by oxbow

However, these numbers point to a whole different dynamic happening. People are still voting GOP in VA, but the visit by Bush turned them against the Kilgore camp just enough to give Kaine the Governor's seat.

Maybe we should ask Bush to campaign with more candidates in 06...;)

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Oilwellian

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Tue Nov-08-05 11:02 PM
Response to Original message

7. They weren't in a dead heat

Edited on Tue Nov-08-05 11:04 PM by George Oilwellian

Kaine pulled ahead by 3-5 points about 2 weeks ago.

On Edit: but I will say Bush showing up didn't do any good. I think it was a last ditch effort to bring Kilgore's numbers up and it didn't work. :D

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oxbow

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Tue Nov-08-05 11:04 PM
Response to Reply #7

8. Really? I have several friends working in the Kaine campaign

as late as last thursday, they told me that it was a statistical tie.

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daleo

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Tue Nov-08-05 11:11 PM
Response to Reply #8

9. Margin of error of any reasonable sized poll is about 3%

So, a six point final spread can come out of a poll with a statistical tie.

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Oilwellian

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Tue Nov-08-05 11:18 PM
Response to Reply #8

10. Here's Kos' poll numbers as of yesterday

VA-Gov: Final SUSA poll (finished today)
by kos
Mon Nov 07, 2005 at 08:42:40 PM PDT
This is a different poll than the one I blogged earlier.

SurveyUSA. 11/5-7. Likely voters. MoE 3.5%. (11/4-6 results)

Kaine 50 (52)
Kilgore 45 (43)

While SUSA is spinning it as movement back to Kilgore on the eve of the vote, it's probably more likely, as most of us said, that the 9-vote spread was too generous to Kaine. His own internal polls show a 4-point lead.

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