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markam Donating Member (146 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-11-05 09:48 PM
Original message
Fed to cease publishing M3 money supply
This seems very odd to me. Why would they stop?

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/discm3.htm
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AX10 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-11-05 09:52 PM
Response to Original message
1. odd.
I'll see if I can find anything about this.
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acmejack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-11-05 09:59 PM
Response to Original message
2. Ben Bernanke
Edited on Fri Nov-11-05 10:02 PM by acmejack
They don't want us to know how much money is available.
snip>
Although he didn’t discuss money in the Journal editorial, a June New York Times article noted Bernanke’s belief that the gold standard made the Great Depression worse. Plus, in a 2002 speech, he lauded the ability of the government to use the printing press to “generate higher spending and hence positive inflation.” If his adherence to a Phillips Curve orthodoxy made his belief in a price-rule already seem shaky, his direct comments about money should remove all doubt.

http://www.nationalreview.com/nrof_comment/tamny200508110924.asp

a good explanation here. http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/paulos020504.html

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WMliberal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-11-05 10:00 PM
Response to Original message
3. better kick for UIA nd Ozymadias tomorrow morning
they might be able to make something out of it.
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-12-05 02:48 PM
Response to Reply #3
28. thanks WMliberal!
I am astounded at this news.

But I won't say that it is an entire surprise. The maladministration has taken some extraordinary steps to cover up facts from the citizens of this country.

I fear that this move will definitely cause a negative backlash from the bond market - it will put a lot of pressure on the purchasers of the bonds, since there won't be any real statistical analysis to make the decisions regarding the soundness of the bonds.

Makes me nervous, to say the least.
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liberal N proud Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-11-05 10:14 PM
Response to Original message
4. I am not brilliant with this stuff but if you throw a tin foil hat on for
minute:
Could it help them to fix the economy?
Would it allow them to print or not print as much money to flood the market or starve the market depending on their whim and desire.


The one thing I am sure of, If they don't want us to know, they are doing something illegal, unethical or both!
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-11-05 10:21 PM
Response to Reply #4
6. A decline in M3 is usually quite a good early indicator of a downturn
... and a significant fall in M3 would precipitate an economic collapse....

These statistics have been published for as long as we have had strong central banking. The decision not to publish this statistic is extraordinarily odd.
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markam Donating Member (146 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-12-05 01:10 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. I see two possibilities
Either they expect a dramatic reduction in foreign holdings of dollars or it is related to the Iranian Bourse, which coincidentally is scheduled to start at the same the Fed plans to quit publishing the M3.

Can someone find out any more information regarding why they are doing this?
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-12-05 02:52 AM
Response to Reply #7
8. I haven't checked the news wires for any extra explanation yet.
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HereSince1628 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-13-05 08:13 AM
Response to Reply #7
36. Doesn't the M3 definition of money include things like Money Market Funds?
And other notes that essentially estimate pools of deposited money?

Seems to me that money is either in play in transactions or it's deposited, which is why the M3 with its more inclusive definition is one of the most stable measures of money.

Are we expecting someone to make some large withdrawals that we don't want to reveal? Perhaps someone wanting to make it look like the money pool and the economy are growing when it isn't?










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lostnfound Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-12-05 11:30 AM
Response to Reply #4
16. Bush Administration never cares about fixing ANYTHING other than the game
Fix the economy? More likely, it's just another way for them to steal us blind.
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-11-05 10:18 PM
Response to Original message
5. This is extraordinary....
I have long been of a view that the Fed has been using what Ben Bernanke described in a recent paper as "unconventional" monetary policy.

Perhaps they want it not to be too obvious....
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CabalPowered Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-12-05 03:02 AM
Response to Original message
9. Does anyone know when Greenspan is stepping down?
TIA

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unblock Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-12-05 01:09 PM
Response to Reply #9
20. 1/31/2006
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markam Donating Member (146 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-12-05 09:53 AM
Response to Original message
10. Kick
To hopefully find someone tha can explain this
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mikita Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-12-05 10:25 AM
Response to Original message
11. this appears to be HUGE economic news
although it's a little difficult to imagine all the ramifications. Will be following this in the weeks ahead on financial sites. It cannot bode well to have this information suppressed.

Thanks SO much for posting this.
Mikita
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annabanana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-12-05 10:28 AM
Response to Original message
12. nominated for visibility for the money mavens among us.....n/t
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1932 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-12-05 10:32 AM
Response to Original message
13. An amature guess:
One thing to keep in mind is that without a gold standard, the value of a dollar is derived from the ability of the government to create a good economy that can generate tax revenues to pay off the countries debt or other promissory notes. A dollar isn't worth the equivalent of an amount of precious metal today. A dollar is worth the future ability of the government to back it through, ideally, growth, but also through, at least, stability.

The biggest threat to the dollar, I believe, is if other countries believed that the US wasn't going to be able to generate revenue through productivity. If the US can't generate revenue through productivity then the only way the US can meet its debt burdens is by printing more money. Printing a lot more money would make foreign creditors very nervous.

Another thing to remember is that hiding information places a premium on that information. To think that this information would NEVER get out is absurd. It will get out to well-connected insiders who will, very likely, get well-connected by making donations to politicians.
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TheGunslinger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-12-05 01:11 PM
Response to Reply #13
21. Feeds my fear of the impending U.S. economic collapse.
Edited on Sat Nov-12-05 01:12 PM by TheGunslinger
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sweetheart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-12-05 10:33 AM
Response to Original message
14. Misinformation as the art of economic war
Ahh, so the straussians are over at the central bank as well, making
up voodoo myths to make monetary policy an even more opaque art.

But as inflation is to be increased to destabilize the lower classes
wealth base, i can see no other way, but to make all the economic
details secret and for the US economy itself to do an enron. Perhaps
they've hired a lot of ex-andersen people over at the fed, and they've
got plans to leverage blind back to back credit derivatives, and inform
the public only after it all blows up.
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Deja Q Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-12-05 11:19 AM
Response to Reply #14
15. By, of, and for the people.
How do you reckon the people will respond?
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sweetheart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-12-05 11:53 AM
Response to Reply #15
18. vacuous ignorance
The people are thick. how thick are they? WEll, if you put 1 grain
of rice on a first square of a chessboard, and double the number of
grains for the next square, and keep doing that, except the chessboard
has 100 squares on each edge, and 2000 sides, that the grains of rice,
laid end to end, span the known universe.. "that thick". ;-)
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MojoXN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-12-05 01:15 PM
Response to Reply #18
23. A googolplex feet thick.
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philly_bob Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-12-05 11:37 AM
Response to Original message
17. A real bad sign /NT
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progressoid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-12-05 01:05 PM
Response to Original message
19. Will have to keep an eye on this.....
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MojoXN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-12-05 01:13 PM
Response to Original message
22. Why would they stop?
So they can create money out of thin air and try to pretend they're not to avoid inflation. Too bad they can't REALLY have it both ways, huh?

MojoXN
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hvn_nbr_2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-12-05 01:25 PM
Response to Original message
24. The meaning of M3 and why they'd stop reporting it
I didn't remember which measure M3 was so I did this Google:
define "M3 money supply"
and got a lot of useful informative links.

No time to write it down now, but the first few links that you get from Google tell you the basics. M3 is the most comprehensive of the measures of money supply, and it seems to me that M3 seems like the most useful and important of M1, M2, and M3 and not publishing it seems extraordinary. Also M3 includes a lot of "big guy, big institution" money that M1 and M2 don't include.

My first glance thought is that either we're heading for a crash or they're planning to inflate us out of one, and they can hide that fact longer by not publishing M3. (I've already been thinking that for some time; this seems to confirm it.) I'd be interested to know if others who follow this stuff more than I do have any other, better theories.
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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-12-05 04:07 PM
Response to Reply #24
33. M1 and M2 are indicators that have historically more accurately reflected
the effects of Fed policy. No serious economist uses M3 as their primary indicator of money supply. The ones who are most concerned about they monetary supply policies of the Fed have always prefered the smaller indicators. I would say M3 is sort of like GDP. Sure, it covers a lot of different things, but it also can be deceiving.
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RazzleDazzle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-12-05 01:33 PM
Response to Original message
25. Well, the obvious answer...
Edited on Sat Nov-12-05 01:37 PM by RazzleDazzle
they don't want us to know that information any more.

(I know, smartass answer.)

I'd like to know what the M3money supply figures are. What do they show? What do they mean? How are they used by economists and others?

Edit: I see hvn_nbr_2 did some legwork on this, clever person. Hope more people who are knowledgeable about this have some additional info for us.
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cyberpj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-12-05 01:39 PM
Response to Original message
26. Nominated. Don't know much about it except it deserves attention.
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Phoebe Loosinhouse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-12-05 01:40 PM
Response to Original message
27. More secrecy
Not a good sign, I wouldn't think. Stand by for some economic turbulence. Deficits, trade imbalances, shaky housing market (freddie and fannie susceptibility), all very bad stuff.

If I had input, I would try to triage our economy asap.
1. Roll back idiotic, irresponsible tax cuts for the wealthy.
2. Increase minimum wage (people can spend more and will be a source of higher payroll taxes)
3. Increase interest rates slowly and gradually
4. Put some kind of controls on the skyrocketing utility cost we are about to see

Pay more attention to "Benedict Arnold" CEOs who are dismantling cities and towns across the country as they export jobs so that they can line their own pockets. Robber barons with no social conscience.

Remember, when Bush came into office we were all arguing about how to spend the surplus!!
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-12-05 02:53 PM
Response to Original message
29. Welcome to DU markam!
and thanks so much for the post!

:hi:
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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-12-05 03:00 PM
Response to Original message
30. M3 is such a large indicator it isn't particularly useful.
M1 and M2 are much more commonly looked at. M3 is so large that it is simply an interesting number. Don't read too much into this. Economic data series are started up and canceled all the time.
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femrap Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-12-05 03:52 PM
Response to Reply #30
31. If M3 is the Big Institutional $,
then maybe these big boys don't want us to know how much they have....or where it is going....out of our country and into safe Swiss francs maybe?

Given the tremendous greed of this administration and we are, after all, talking MONEY SUPPLY 3...it just seems like something is up. It stinks...all these years we have had M3. I remember in the days of Voulker (sp?...the guy with the cigar), every Friday everyone would be wondering what the Money Supply figures were going to be...and the market would react.

I have been away from the investment arena for a long time but it fascinates me...I like to keep tabs on how the rich boys are stealing everyone blind!

What are some good websites that watch out for this kind of stuff? thx.
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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-12-05 04:04 PM
Response to Reply #31
32. M3 = M1 + M2 + some additional indicators such as institutional money-mark
et funds. It is a watered down indicator as a result. It is hard to get a good grasp of what is really going on when you are talking about those particular indicators. They are not influenced by Fed policy as much. I really don't see why some people think this is some kind of conspiracy.
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markam Donating Member (146 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-12-05 04:34 PM
Response to Reply #30
34. They have been publishing the M3 number for 46 years
It is not exactly a random, worthless statistic.
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annabanana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-13-05 07:16 AM
Response to Original message
35. kickin' Sunday Morning... .n/t
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AirAmFan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-13-05 12:41 PM
Response to Original message
37. One M3 measure currently shows DOUBLE-DIGIT INFLATION!
Could it be that incumbent politicians are manipulating
accountability
statistics as an important election approaches?

The absence of a plasuible explanation for discontinuing M3 --
such as its availabilty from alternative sources, lack of
interest and use by economists, etc. -- will arouse the
suspicions of many.

From http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/Current/ :

FRB: H.6 Release--Money Stock and Debt Measures--November 10,
2005

H.6 (508) -- Table 2  -- MONEY STOCK MEASURES
Percent change at seasonally adjusted annual rates
-------------------------------------------------------
                                       M1    M2    M3
-------------------------------------------------------
3 Months from July 2005 TO Oct. 2005   3.9   6.2  11.5
6 Months from Apr. 2005 TO Oct. 2005   1.0   4.5   9.1
12 Months from Oct. 2004 TO Oct. 2005  0.5   4.0   7.3
-------------------------------------------------------
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AirAmFan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-13-05 12:58 PM
Response to Reply #37
38. Previous "Discontinuance" notices have solicited comments
from the public during a specified "comment period", and have supplied plausible reasons why measures could be considered obsolete. Try this google search:

discontinuance site:federalreserve.gov/releases

This weekend's announcement stands out from the others for its lack of a comment period or any explanation, as well as its timing: on a Friday that's also a holiday! By Monday, many newspapers will consider this announcement "old news".
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annabanana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-13-05 03:46 PM
Response to Original message
39. kickety. . . . . . . n/t
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annabanana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-14-05 06:15 AM
Response to Original message
40. kickin' in the am......n/t
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