Who do you think will win the nomination?

This is not who you support, or who you like best. But who you honestly think will win the Democratic nomination at this point. Anything can happen. But I want to hear who and why you think a candidate will win the nomination.

I think two people are best to pick up the nomination.

Dean, because he will wipe out Gephardt and Kerry early on. He also has a huge war chest and has a huge ground force. He can easily move his supporters around with a simple email. Other candidates have to work harder to get their supporters information.

I also think Clark can win the nomination. He is the highest ranking in the polls as a favorite with 20% of support to Dean's 13%. Everyone else even ranks lower. Dean will also help wipe out Gephardt, Kerry, and Lieberman for him. That would only leave Dean and Clark as the serious candidates. Dean I think might be seen as too radical and wanting to fire leaders of the DNC. Clark also fairs better against Bush in a head to head match up.

Who do you think will win the nomination? NOT who do you want.

Mike

I was convinced this was Kerry's race to lose. I no longer think that. I think it is likely to be Dean. I base the change on the fact Dean is running our best campaign and Kerry close to our worst. Dean has the money advantage (I never would have dreamed that) and I think he will win NH pretty convincingly. This could well be a Dean/ Gephardt or Dean/Clark showdown and I think Dean wins either one of those.

I think that he will be able to carry the "Northeastern angry liberal elite intellectual." Actually he is a NRA loving, moderate to-conservative Democrat.

As a politician, I don't Clark can match him. Dean has people on the ground everywhere. He inspires action more than the other major candidates.

honest guess, Clark or Gephart
my personal choice, Clark or Dean

I honestly believe it could be either.

He won't win in Iowa or South Carolina but what I can see here in CA he's got the support to win here. Besides, he's the guy that Rove wants to run against so I expect some dirty tricks.

Michigan and every southern state? NY is also the birthplace of Dean.
I could see the media buzz of IA and NH wins, but he is not beating Clark in delegate rich states. Clark is winning those, that is why I think it will be close between the two.

Mike

One - Dean uses money, message, and manpower to pummel the bejeesus out of Gephardt and Kerry. Taking Iowa and New Hampshire, he rides his media buzz to win a couple Southern primaries - Tennessee, Maryland, Delaware being good candidates. On Super Tuesday, he locks it in with the Northeast, Northwest, and some midwestern states like Michigan or Minnesota. Dean picks either Clark or Edwards as his VP, hammers Bush throughout the summer and fall, cruising to a modest win - 55% or less. The Dems pick up narrow control of Congress, a la Bill Clinton.
Possibility of either Rooseveltian, Kennedian, or Clintonian success or Carterian failure.
Alternatively, Bush's millions plus Lee Atwater style attacks plus possibility of "October Suprise" leads to Dean losing by a similarly modest margin. I thank god for my E.U passport and take up residency in Paris, where I will write edgy, realist novels decrying the emptiness of the American soul, while getting addicted to absynthe.

Two- Dean wins NH and Iowa, but his moment is stopped by a Southern/Midwestern surge from either Edwards or Clark who position themselves as moderate southerners to Dean's yankee liberal. Dean is offered VP or cabinet slot for his support and his machinery. Clark or Edwards stymie Bush's bashing, pick off enough of the South to win. We pick up narrow control of Congress. Possibility as with one.

Three- Dean wins neither, Kerry and Gephardt go on, but Edwards or Clark takes the South. Showdown in the Midwest, with the NE/NW pulling for the more liberal candidate left. This is a real bareknuckle brawl. Result? I dunno. Whoever comes out, comes out weakened.

I saw a link about him tonight. I can still remember the die-hard Reform Party folks who campaigned for him around here. He'd divide the vote, between dissatisfied Dems and dissatisfied Repugs. Or maybe folks would just blow him off as a screwball (which he is).

unless Clark gets some organization in his campaign and some steam-a-rollin. Even then, I think Dean would have to have another MTP debacle for Clark to pull it off.

Dean will win IA & NH, so he's got history on his side.

Clark will win SC.

Super Tuesday will be very exciting.

If I were a betting man, I'd be hard-pressed to handicap this race. Solid agruments could be made for either one of these candidates.

My hope is, in the end, it'll be Dean. But my more pragmatic side is saying Clark will be there.

It's a genuine win-win situation.

Clark's sudden conversion from Bush fundraiser to dem candidate is too much of a joke to last, but he damages and holds down the Dean campaign in the meantime. Gephardt may be the ultimate beneficiary of this.

That was 1988 that Clark last voted Repug. That is plenty of time to convert. But on a more positive note, Clark has only gone up in the polls. He is at 20% support. That is like 2x the support of every other candidate.

Mike

I largely agree with your reasons.

I'm not writing off anyone, although I don't think CMB and/or Sharpton will be there. I'm a big fan of both, I just don't see it happening this time around.

As for the rest, I think it is too early to predict, and it's still open. Ask me again at the end of November or December!