http://goldenstateblog.latimes.com/Memo to Mary Katherine: Uh-Oh
Michael Hiltzik
The council’s Thanksgiving week snapshot is here: black_friday_sales.pdf.
http://goldenstateblog.latimes.com/goldenstate/files/black_friday_sales.pdfIt shows that, for all the hoopla, chain store sales actually fell last week from the week before—a week without a fancy moniker to make people think it’s something special. Sales were considerably higher last week than for the same week a year earlier, but the council cautions that last year’s post-Thanksgiving shopping days were a disappointment (bad weather in the Northeast creamed sales on Saturday and Sunday), making this a deceptively "easy" comparison. All in all, the council isn’t very sanguine. It worries that this could be a "very promotional
season" and that consumers enter the shopping derby "with little personal savings cushion and record high credit card delinquency rates." The council is projecting a total sales gain of 3-3.5% this year over last. That won’t even match the rate of inflation, which is running at 4.65% (including energy). Isn’t it grand that the new, stringent bankruptcy law went into effect in October?
The breathless reporting on Black Friday crowds as a sign of a ripping economy strikes me as an example of what I call the "Johannesburg effect." It’s derived from the mistaken notion many people had about the wealth of South Africa. For years, economists and reporters visiting apartheid-era Johannesburg would come away dazzled by the vibrancy of the economy. (This was especially true if they had stopped off first in black Africa.) The conclusion was that the end of apartheid couldn’t help but give everyone in the country, black or white, a middle-class lifestyle.
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