What kind of bounce would a Zarqawi, Zawahri, or Osama capture give Bush

The biggest unknown until the 2006 election other then the possibe terror attack or whatnot is Bush pulling a high level terrorist rabbit out of his hat.

Given that a couple stupid speechs can bump his polls four or five points what would the capture of one of these three do.

The only reason I think the capture of Zawahiri would give Bush a a bounce is because the media would play it for days up and a hell of alot of people would confuse him with Zarqawi.

Of course clearly a Bin Laden or Zarqawi catch would give him the biggest bump. Looking at the polls for the Saddam bounce it lasted about two months, but I don't think the bump had near the power it would have had if Saddam looked scary, mean, and angry instead of like a raggedy old demented defeated man that wasn't a threat to anyone. The Roman's learned when you present the enemy to the public at a triumph you first feed them, get them cleaned up, and give them armor to make them look scary, of course Bremer was a really shitty procouncil for Bush.

So as for my question what would be the size and time frame of the bounce be from the capture or killing of the three above for Bush.

I do think Bush has the power to get Bin Laden or Zawahiri if he wants. Pakistani ISI knows were they are and would be able to get eather of them for him in exchange for something like a 20 billion doller bribe. If Bush's numbers drop far enough I could see him hitting them up on that offer.

In all seriousness, ask an average person who they are and the average person couldn't tell you. Bin Laden I think would give him 10 points or so for a short period of time.

He has been in the news since Bush's speech about Iraqs links to al-Qaeda since right before the election in 2002. And, then Colin Powell spent 15 minutes of his speech to the UN talking about him.

However, he didn't reach the US news watching public's awareness until May of 2004, when the Nick Burg killing rocketed him to a decient level of name familarity with the 20% of America that pays attention to the news.

Since then he has gotten nearly daily coverage of his face on Fox, CNN, MSNBC, and the Nightly news networks for almost two years for the suicide attacks in Iraq. I think that saturated with enough people who deeply pay attention to the news and those that sometimes pay attention to the news that he was about at 60-70% awareness by the start of 2005. I think its been stuck there ever since regardless of Bush bringing him up in the State of the Union Address and his other prime time speech to the nation on Iraq this year as well as every other speech he has given on Iraq.

The only time I ever think it ever goes over that level of awareness is when something really big happens that goes further then just the cable news networks, the nightly news networks, or the News magazines like Time and Newsweek. The Jordan bombing is one of those events were you have Barbra Walters talking about it, J Leno and the Nightly comedians talking about/cracking jokes about it, E! talking about the bombing and the death of the producer of Holloween. That kind of event I think brings in maybe 10-20% of the people who don't watch the news or pay attention much at all. Thus, I must say probably 80% of Americans have heard of him.

But, the bigger question is how much they know about him. And, on that end I think the answer is decidedly little. If you asked people who he is you would get most people saying he is the leader of the insurgency or he is a terrorist, but you wouldn't get much more then that.

Thus, I think it will be how the media handles it and how long they talk about it that will mainly deterimine the bounce if he is caught.

When I've talked with people I consider to be informed they can't pinpoint one thing that Zarqawi has actually done.

I said that most Americans know who Zarqawi and know he is a terrorist or insurgent that has killed alot of people in Iraq. But, other then that they don't know much more about him.

With Saddam's crimes it is the same thing with the US public in that if you asked someone about Saddam's crimes they won't be able to pin point one except maybe the attack on Kuwaitt. That is why if you poll the average American 60% think Saddam had links to al-Qaeda. Because, they understand he was a 'bad man' and they know of a one or at most two big evil things he has done, but other then that they haven't a clue.

Zarqawi is the perfect Boogyman for president Bush in just about every way except one.

Because, he is always on the move and always changing his appearence to avoid being caught as (one of his wives in Jordan talked about him after the Amman bombings on Fox). He doesn't release video tapes of him ranting and raving and only releases audio tapes or beheading videos with his appearence covered.

Terrorist video tapes like the tapes Bin Laden made to the US public after 911 are the most effective at getting the publics attention and the publics anger directed at one person. Its not suprising that the most effective thing Zarqawi ever did to gain the US publics attention was to release beheading videos. But, he hasn't done any for the past year, at least with Americans.

And they can't be found. That's why the media spits out more and more divisive topics to entertain and distract us with.

Catching one or even two big guys won't affect operations that much.

jump. The others you mention don't matter, at least from a bump in the polls standpoint.

if would have happened before the 2004 elections. Or right after Katrina.

as for Saddam looked scary, mean, and angry instead of like a raggedy old demented defeated man that wasn't a threat to anyone that was the idea. This was not for the benefit of Americans but was about showing the Iraqis their former dictator and tormentor was nothing more than a rat hiding in a hole.

But it will quickly be dispelled by more deaths or more terrorist attacks.

The question would be whether or not there would be a trial.

killing them, BushCo. will look pretty stupid if they catch their bogeymen and the killing doesn't stop.

The powers-that-be would then have to create/enhance another individual as the carrier of all that is evil.

And, plus Bush wouldn't have time to build up name regonizion for another Boogyman anyway. It took three years of sometime daily news coverage on the cable networks to get Zarqawi a decident name regonizion with the US public.

With Bin Laden it just took several weeks because 911 was so big that its stopped the news and shows on all the other networks and got the whole nation to pay close attention. So short of another major attack on our homeland there isn't the time to make a deciently well known Boogyman.

In this very thread, some even suggest he's an actual human being that can be captured, instead of merely a composite police sketch which became the new "Emmanuel Goldstein".

But, yes the man does exist. A well known Arab scholor just did a book called "Inside the Resistance" were he met insurgent leaders and his book includes an interview with Zarqawi.

The meme that some people want to create that he doesn't exist is unhelpful to our arguement for withdrawl, because in the eyes of others it discredits everything else one has to say.

Dean and Murta's plans both have found a way to deal with him that the public could buy and that is moving our forces to a nearby country as a quick reaction force that could call in special forces when they get intel about a location he is at.