"There are signs of a real estate downturn everywhere." - CBS

Watching the evening news -- stalled home sales everywhere. Stuff slowing down in response to the failed BushCo-Republican economic policies.

Will check to see if CBS has anything on their web site.

Nothing so far. But the broadcast report was strongly worded.

..to a real estate broker friend of mine. She told me this over the weekend. Her firm specializes in repos -- and they are planning on tripling their staff next year.

and houses aren't moving at all-not even the least expensive ones. Here I was hoping to move in the spring. :-(

will be any part of the country that is immune like Florida. Florida's population is suppose to keep growing at an crazy rate until somewhere around 2013. Builders are 8-10 months behind schedule down here and the normal time for them to build a house use to be 4-6 months. Too many houses being planned and not enough workers to build them. It's crazy down here the amount of people that are coming here even in spite of the hurricanes.

Let me know if you find out something.

http://www.naplesnews.com/npdn/news/article/0,2071,NPDN_14940_4310253,00.html

Don't know where you live, but my husband lives, works, and bought a 2 bedroom Condo there for $260,000 last year. I always thought Long Island was overpriced, but when I was looking here last year for a Condo, what I could have bought for the same amount, albeit WAY OUT here, my daughter called his condo in Florida the "Bates Motel".

The Condo here was an unattached 2 bedroom, 2 bath, HOUSE. Small frontage, small backyard, with attached garage and pull down attic, with a heated Florida room (sic.) Monthly maintaince fees included all landscaping and snowplowing (don't have that in Florida). Yeah, it had the outdoor pool, tennis court, clubhouse, golf, bla, bla, bla. Maintenance fees were $150 a month. Husband's fees are $250 a month. He's about 15 minute drive to the Gulf beaches.

Tell me which was the better deal. Beaches? This one was about 20 minutes drive to the Hampton's.

You cannot just look at the price. Have to consider what you are getting for it.

in January for 515K. A broker bought it, put in some tile and granite and now has it on the market for 750K. That's crazy!!

Also, the rate of price increases in Florida will simply price so many people out of the market as interest rates begin to rise at the same time that it doesn't matter that demographics are on Florida's side.

The market here in central NM was never overheated, but it's been vastly overbuilt. Last June the weekend real estate shows started showing the same bread and butter houses between $120,000 and $150,000 multipile weeks before they finally sold. Investors were snapping up all new construction to the tune of one fourth of it being sold to out of state investors, but existing housing sales were stalled.

Now the building boom is over, and new houses are also sitting unsold.

And Greenspan keeps raising interest rates. I think the old bastard really has planned to throw us into a depression all along.

The listings we are watching are going down in price but still unsold. Lots of them are unoccupied. Seems a lot are new and never lived in. Banks and mortgage companies must be gettin nervous. Builders must be sweating bullets.

We are gonna wait a bit. Were planning on building. Now, maybe not.

the dozen or more houses in our subdivision with "For Sale" signs in the front yards that have been in place since last year. NOTHING is moving in this neighborhood- and it's a nice place!

I also have two real estate brokers as clients, and they've both been scrambling all year.

Wow. The average length of time for a home to be on the market is around three months. A year is a really long time. Maybe the houses are way over priced.

I live in a godawful slum that's godawful convenient. Houses here are being snapped up very quickly by people who've read the writing on the wall and are moving out of the exurbs and into the city. More folks are showing foreclosure notices, though, to get those houses onto the market.

It's all about location, you know. ;) You'll know if people start renovating or tearing down and rebuilding in your neighborhood.

I was thinking of becoming an eccentric millionaire, so I could afford a 3 bedroom ranch on 1/4 acre of land.

.....if the bubble really crashes.

In other words, people are stuck with houses they can't sell and RTO is at least one way to pay the mortgage and Insurance.

Lots of RTO listings and signage in nice areas of Denver Metro.

... but zero down and even negative-amortization mortgages.

These sound like good ideas until you think about it.

... but zero down and even negative-amortization mortgages.

After watching a few cycles I don't even have to think about it any more. Next phase: NODs, foreclosure sales, REO, the works.

The proliferation of the "gold bugs" is another sure sign.

didn't find it.

I think you should sent this to Jon Stewart; or maybe Randi would put it on her website.

I do have Photoshop, just haven't figured out how to use it yet!

Maybe later tonight. I'm out of here for now...but you might want to check the CBS home page later.

Have a good evening!

Sales have dropped slightly, there is a slump in bonds, secondary markets are increasing interest rates, inventory on the market has increased.

http://www.azstarnet.com/allheadlines/106231

Housing bubble is history in the U.S. bond market
By Al Yoon
BLOOMBERG NEWS
Tucson, Arizona | Published: 12.11.2005
advertisementIn the U.S. bond market, the housing bubble has burst.
Bonds backed by home loans to the riskiest borrowers, the fastest growing part of the $7.6 trillion mortgage market, have lost about 2.5 percent since September on concern an 18-month rise in interest rates may force more than 150,000 consumers to default.

The slump in the bonds is one of the first signs the housing boom is ending after the Federal Reserve's 12 interest-rate increases. Real estate has accounted for about half the economy's growth since 2001, according to Merrill Lynch & Co.

http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/1130/p01s03-usec.html

Housing boom shows signs of finally waning

On Monday, the National Association of Realtors reported that October sales of existing homes dropped after no gain in September. Sales of new homes have held up better as developers have dropped prices - down 1.1 percent from October 2004 - to move homes. Tuesday, the Commerce Department reported the sales of new homes shot up 13 percent, the largest one-month gain in 12 years.

"People are killing themselves to get in before rates go up," says Mr. Chan. "But the developers are taking a page out of the auto industry as they are dropping prices."

In many parts of the nation, the less buoyant housing market is reflected in an increase in the inventory of unsold homes. On Monday, that inventory of single-family residences could keep the market supplied for 4.8 months, up from 4.3 months. Condo and co-op inventory rose to 5.5 months from 4.5 months.

....in latinamerica?

i'm in the process of trying to get financing for a small house down here. i wonder if i should wait. but, all signs seem to be pointing in the opposite direction as real estate prices here seem to be rising by the day.

to 'stimulate the economy' in response to the housing sector downturn, as the rest of the media will be. I guarantee they won't be saying anything like 'slowdown because of failed Republican economics'.

They don't just report the news, they defer to whatever Republican agenda can be twisted out of the news. That's what counts.

in front of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, DC, as well as "Prime Property For Sale -- 1600 Acres -- All Brush Cleared!" at the ranch in Crawford.

...it appears to be "over" on the mad rush to buy more and more expensive properties.

She's a high end RE agent and is seeing it first hand in the one place that was supposed to be immune to the death of the RE market...

They said the same thing in southern California in the late 80s/early 90s. People lost their homes and more when prices came down over 40 percent over the course of a few years. I wouldn't be buying investment real estate in SW FL right now. In my neighborhood, earlier this year there were one or two single family homes on the market and they sold in days. Today, there are 15 home on the market, most have been there for at least 90 days and only one has sold. People are expecting to get way too much money for a cookie cutter tract home on a postage stamp sized lot. The homes are all less than 10 yrs old and most have at least doubled (many have tripled or quadrupled) in value. We're talking 700k for a 2000 sq ft tract house - it's nuts!

Wait until they raise interest rates a couple of points! People are stretching to afford the biggest house they can right now. What happens if rates go up 3 points and they have to sell? Who is going to buy it? The pool of qualified buyers shrinks with every interest rate hike. Wages are not keeping pace with this massive run up in housing prices. Something has to give and I doubt there is a massive wage readjustment in the works!

We've had three years of historically low interest rates, and now they are rebounding. However, the job market IS NOT creating the kinds of jobs that can keep with home prices.

We are looking to buy our first house. We have settled on an upper end that will not put us in a bind if the market crashes and even if one of us lost our job, or both of us did and have to go work double shifts at walmart and mcdonalds. Atleast that is what it looks like on paper. We will not be getting any of those retarded ARMs.. standard 30 year fixed, thank you very much.

So here is the question.. the markets are obviously cooling. However, we arent looking in an area that has really boomed.. like Seattle and the burbs...

Do we try to lock in as soon as possible given the interest rates and buy a house that is slightly more expensive... or do we wait it out and stay lower priced with a possibly higher interest rate in a few months?

Thanks in advance for any advice anyone can give me.

This is driving me nuts and half of me thinks we should just sink all our money into Gold and hold on for the ride for a few years till things even out.

If your area never really boomed as you said, then buy now before interest rates go up again. If prices don't artifically inflate, they don't substantially drop either.

In my area, appreciation rates have been steady at around 6% for the last five or more years. Prices are not going to bottom out.

Do a market study of the neighborhood you'd like to buy in and you'll have a good idea. You can do this buy looking at sales comps in your new neighborhood over the last year and identify any trends.

Sales always slow some during the winter holidays and pick back up in the Spring, so winter is a good time to buy in general.

I dont think homes will fall much in value, they just will not rise in value much for a while. Especially in non-hot markets. The values never went crazy there in the 1st place.

The interest rate stays with you for the 30 years of the mortgage. There is the possiblity of re-financing, but who knows what the interest rates will be in the decades to come. There could be a time when people think 8.5% is really great. When Carter was president the interest rates were 17%!

it meant the price of the house needed to drop to get it to sell. That's the question, though - will the price of the house drop? If there's no more buyers left, it will.

My reasoning is that at least the interest is deductible wheras the extra cost of a higher priced home with a lower interest rate is not deductible.

I once saw a chart which showed the combined cost of the house plus the interest rates and it showed that up until just very recently the overall cost of homes was steady - that as interest rates went up the cost of the house declined (adjusted for inflation) and vice versa. Sorry don't have the link.

and the prices aren't going anywhere but up...and just take a look at a two bedroom condo in Atlantic Station (near midtown Atl) for $500,00+ and tell prospective buyers about the housing crash. There are a lot of areas in the coutry where properties have been priced out of the range of MOST buyers (think Bay Area, NYC, Boston and the like) and those areas might be in for a hurting. But some of the areas that did not get completely out of control will fare just fine.

subjectProdigal

Its funny what happens to a market when greed and high expectations come together!

Just as overpriced as ever.

But, that still leaves the prices sky high. Same for SF, Boston, LA and DC.

had its own story. As far back as the 1950's a decent apartment was already double what it would be everywhere else. New Jersey has become McMansion Alley. There are new homes going up near my mother in Mommouth County that start at $900,000. I can't imagine who is going to buy them.

They START at around $l000 per square foot.

In my area, a nice home sells for around $l20-2l0 per sq ft.

I think it is overdue for one right now.

....pick up their houses at bargain basement prices.

....except for every moron that voted for bush in the last two elections.

i hope that if the market does crash it will mainly affect freeper types. this is the economy they voted for. let them enjoy it.

That's not exactly rocket science.

shrunk their customer base. Even without the rise in mortgage rates, ARMs in particular, housing was likely to kill itself with those price increases.

because money is easy & cheap to borrow.

Now the market will have to adjust to the higher rates. Some inflated prices will deflate and that will cause some not-so-happy homebuyers to be sure.

Yes, "easy" is part of it too. Secondary lenders opened up the market to people who previously couldn't buy because they couldn't get a mortgage, thus the market was flooded with buyers. That coupled with low interest rates drove up prices. And of course, an influx of speculators had some influence.

Second and third tier (predatory) lenders are gearing up now to do massive foreclosures and tightening up the criteria for borrowers.

I live in a rather expensive neighborhood because we have several acres of land each (it wasn't expensive when I bought, but values exploded recently), and several of the properties in my area have recently sold for $800,000+ dollars (I paid a couple hundred for mine). and sold within days. These are nice suburban homes sitting on HUGE lots overlooking a natural river. Everyones dream, right?

One of my neighbors put his house on the market two months ago for $850k on the advice of his realtor. Shortly after that he received a single offer of $775k which he was willing to take but his realtor convinced him to pass on. The market was "hot" and the realtor said that it would be foolish to take under the asking price.

His house is still on the market, now offered at $750k and he has NO offers...he can't even get people to look at it anymore (and understand that this is a BEAUTIFUL house). He told us last week that he'll knock another $50k off of it, but isn't expecting it to sell now. His realtor isn't even returning his calls anymore!

(CBS) Lots of people made lots of money in the real estate boom.

But now the news is good if you're looking to buy, but for the first time in a long time, not so good if you are selling, reports CBS News correspondent Sharyn Alfonsi.

In last year's red-hot real estate market, homes like Letty Mallery's were selling for a million bucks — often in a day. But Letty's home has been on the market for five months and hasn't moved.

In fact, she has had to drop the price of her home twice.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2005/12/15/eveningnews/main1131821.shtml

Mourning in America - Bush

and the prices aren't going anywhere but up...and just take a look at a two bedroom condo in Atlantic Station (near midtown Atl) for $500,00+ and tell prospective buyers about the housing crash. There are a lot of areas in the coutry where properties have been priced out of the range of MOST buyers (think Bay Area, NYC, Boston and the like) and those areas might be in for a hurting. But some of the areas that did not get completely out of control will fare just fine.

subjectProdigal

whilst others have been climbing (some seemingly exponentially) for years and years...they won't all come crashing in at once...

subjectProdigal

declines. This housing boom has been more nationwide than usual.

outlook not so good.

not one house or condo was sold in our town last week

Not one for a whole week

I live in a town of about 20,000 pop. with abot 7,000 homes