SEIU leans Dean, AFSCME waiting for Clark to "arrive"

From a connected labor source -- kos
http://www.dailykos.com/

SEIU is supposed to meet on November 6th to assemble the results of its internal polling and decide whether to endorse at that time, or, again, delay a decision. All signs point to Dean--if the internal polling means anything--he was first coming out of the last meeting, Edwards second, Gephardt third--and support of the key local leaders means anything (Rivera in NYC, Roselli in Bay Area, Medina in LA), then Dean's the guy. Gephardt's strong support for the war really hurt him early on with these local leaders--those large local unions were running independent anti-war activities from the start. And while Gephardt is 100% pro-union, his particularly strong base on midwest trade issues doesn't make that much difference to coastally based service sector unionists. Edwards gave great speech at the last SEIU political conference, he's a pro-union guy, but nobody's thinks he got a chance to win.

The other thing to keep in mind is the intra-union dynamics now favor an SEIU endorement of Dean--the mini-Gephardt boomlet in the media and Iowa and among a number of unions gives Andy Stern an opportunity to carve out an independent path from the herd--he respects and likes Gephardt, but has never thought he was electable, and is keenly aware that money matters--and that Gephardt, win or lose in Iowa, will be out of money in March, and will be creamed by Bush for months. If Stern picks the ultimate nominee in Dean, he will look prescient, while the other unions will look merely sentimental--he's too savvy to think that that "GOP thinks Gephardt will be toughest" article is anything other than a feint to get the Dems to waste money fighting each other, get the AFL to endorse Gephardt and cause more intra-party bloodletting, and create more opposition to who the GOP is really scared of, Clark.

The other intra-union dynamic to watch is the so-called "New Union Unity Partnership" of five unions, of which SEIU is the most significant, which has directly challenged the primacy of the AFL-CIO. This is all the talk inside the labor movement--there was an article about this in Business Week about a month ago. Again, what this means is that SEIU is not going to quietly "go along" with the choice of the majority of unions--look for Dean to get the nod on November 6th. The latest evidence of this can be found in this entry in today Note from ABC News:

The New York Daily News reports on a "hush-hush" meeting of SEIU leaders, who heard from Bill Clinton and Howard Dean as they laid out plans for an "unprecedented $35 million campaign to drive George W. Bush out of the White House next year."

While neither the SEIU nor its 1199 local, headed by New York kingmaker Dennis Rivera, has yet endorsed a candidate, the Daily News quotes one union shop steward as saying the crowd "mobbed Dean and cheered him wildly from the moment he walked into the back of the hall."

Dean may be a done deal but other candidates continue to fight for SEIU's backing. Union officials tell The Note Edwards and Kucinich will address the Florida 1199 local's "Dignity Congress" this Thursday and Friday, with Kerry and Dean beaming in to speak to the group of healthcare workers.

AFSCME is a tougher case to figure at this point--except that they will certainly do something different from SEIU, given the rivalry between these two giants. McEntee wants a "winner" and has always thought that the war hero credential would be crucial in this cycle. He is also not impressed with Dean. But both Kerry and Clark continue to stumble. Kerry numbers have not picked up in New Hampshire, except for that one anomalous poll--I think he's about out of time with AFSCME. I think AFSCME will delay their endorsement as long as possible, to give Clark more time to get his act together, but I don't think he has done enough to close the sale anytime soon. I could be wrong, but I'm thinking that SEIU endorses Dean in two weeks, but AFSCME waits things out for a bit, perhaps until the end of the year.

But don't sell the Painter's union thing short for Dean--that union got some kind of award from the AFL-CIO after the 2000 election cycle for having the best political operation. They're not particularly big, but they're a relentless, highly professional operation--and it finally opens labor's door for Dean, with a building trades union, no less. A minor coup, for him.

This is a big deal beyond the obvious point that it's Dean's first union endorsement (which is, itself, noteworthy, and gives him momentum to get the key SEIU nod). The Painters are a political juggernaut--it's basically what they do (there was a spate of articles about this during the '00 election cycle). They are pound for pound--and dollar for dollar, which they have plenty of--one of the most effective political operations in the labor movement. When you add to that the fact that they are not in the "Starbucks ghetto" (nice phrase, Ron Brownstein), but are, instead, an old-line building trades union, this is quite a coup for Dean--his odds of getting the nomination just went up another few percentage points.

He can't take criticism so he locks down the site. My opinion has nothing to do with this article.

the only criticism I've seen about Kos is in regard to the fact that he does some technical work for the Dean campaign… which he discloses on the main page.