Is Zogby push polling for Dean in NH?

Somebody pointed this out on another site and I think they raise a very valid concern.

The following question was asked "prior" to asking the person to vote for a democratic party nominee:

Q. Should the Democratic party nominate someone who is a lifelong Democrat, or would Democrats be wise to select someone who is a recent convert to their way of thinking?

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=750
The poster’s view was this amounts to push polling and completely, I mean completely discredits these results.

I agree. This question is obviously included to discredit Clark and sway the results. The use of the word “wise.” In addition, they insinuate that Clark just decided to think a certain way (pro-affirmative action etc.) which is a lie. As a military officer he could not be a partisan hack since he had to work for both democratic and republican administrations. He put his country first. Too bad some of these “lifelong” democrats can’t see fit to do the same.

Push polling is a way of spreading a lie. Example: "If you found out that Dennis Kucinich raped children would it influence your voting for him?" The idea is to spread the lie that he raped children, which is the impression it leaves. But technically it is not saying he raped children, just asking how that would influence you if he had. It is a tactic favored by Rovians.

Clark is a new convert so it is not spreading a lie. It is the truth. Odd that those who think it is fine that he is new to the party consider it push-polling in regards to asking the truth. (Not you, just that this is about the 3rd time I have read this at DU regarding that poll question.)

When they show the video of Clark praising the Bush team in a campaign commercial will that be dirty tricks or just exposing the incredibly bad judgment of Clark? I suppose it depends on one preferring the truth or Clark.

And it helps to explain the incredible poll results. There is no way Dean has that kind of lead in NH. It is quite telling that the question about the newcomer to the party is EARLY. Odd, no?

I know there are a variety of definitions of what push-polling means but I don't think this fits them. Also it seems slanted to favor Clark (Note the word "wise" in the title).

That is why it's a push poll.

If it's a "push poll", wouldn't they crank out the calls to gazillions of people? A real poll would ask a a very small sampling -- the goal is to measure opinions, not to shape them. A true push poll, presumably, would call as many people as possible.

Named person or entity. That's what makes a push poll.

When pushpolling was first created by Lee Atwater in SC it was used against a friend of my spouse's family. He was the Dem mayor of Greenville and was running against Carol Campbell. He was Jewish and still favored to win. Atwater started calling voters and once it was determined they felt favorably towards the Dem, they would be asked if they shared his view that Jesus was not the Savior. That was technically a true statement, but, proferred to reinforce a negative perception.

The use of the word "wise" is in the clause about recent converts. They don't say anything about the first clause about wisdom.

The word "wise" is key.

not text

If someone asked me if it would be wise to do something I darn well would think that they were inferring that it wasn't too good an idea. It's like when people say "do you think that's a wise thing to do?"

is inappropriate. If I was working on a campaign and they had me doing that - I would think "how sleazy." I've worked on several campaigns (including in Chicago) and have never been asked to do something like that. Very unprofessional...

In this country all we have is the "politics of deception."

has already been stated by the voter (according to the summary on the Zogby site).

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=750

Nice try, but poll methodology is not an issue. Zogby's a pro.

And the other questions come at the end. Only if it was the other way around could a case be rightfully made.

From looking at the referenced page I can't tell which question was asked first. Where does it say that the results are listed in the order they were asked? In addition, even if the question was asked after asking nominee preference such a question is still intended to leave a certain impression with the person being polled. The only time I have ever heard someone ask someone if it was wise to do something, the person raising the question was inferring that it was an unwise thing to do.

Why don't they add a question like, "Today when it is possible that we could be subject to another terrorist attack at any time would you feel safer with a commander in chief who evaded the draft or one who had served his country in a time of war, being decorated with honors?"

A majority (54%) of likely voters in the Granite State’s primary say Democrats should elect a moderate centrist who can appeal to independents, while just over one in four (27%) would prefer a nominee who represents the Democratic wing of the Party.

A plurality (43%) would back a candidate who opposed the war in Iraq, while one-third (33%) would favor one who supported the war. Three-fourths would support a Democrat who supported the war effort, with just 9% saying they would be more likely to support President Bush.

:shrug:

--

The questions he asked were designed to get information. They all can be seen as slanted to one degree or another. I seriously doubt that Zogby would destroy his reputation and career by presenting a particular bias. And where it is not entirely clear where the questions were asked, it seems highly unlikey that they came before the candidate preference questions.

The questions you discuss are more neutral in nature designed to actually determine how potential voters view a specific issue. On the other hand, the statement referring to Clark is a lie intentionally meant to paint Clark as an opportunist – since when has Clark just decided to think that affirmative action was right etc. I think he’s held his beliefs for quite some time, – he just never selected a party.

I think the first statement uses Dean's "Democratic wing of the Democratic party" line against him in a unnecessary and potentially negative manner. I think the question which we are safely assuming referred to Clark could be seen as neutral or negative depending on your POV. You think he held his beliefs for sometime; I'm not so sure. There is ample evidence to support both of our perspectives. Either way I think this is a stretch to call this a biased poll towards Dean or against Clark based on the strength of one question.

where those being polled had already stated their preference, then this is a legitimate and not unusual method to drill down to what matters or not in making the initial decision.

For example, I ask where you collect your news/information (sources, ex NYT, WSJ, ABC News, etc.) Then I give additional information that applies to some of those issues to learn whether knowledge of that issue changes your preference.

This information can both be of interest to a competitor and to the target. The target can learn if a perceived barrier really is a barrier - and apply business strategy accordingly. For example we are Fox News and we think that if people really knew that we were conservative (*gasp*) and sometimes coordinated information with the White House that we might lose some consumers who really bought the "Fair and Balanced Slogan". In which case we would spend money on efforts to try to keep up that image. If we learned instead that to most of our viewers - AND to some consumers who prefered other news sources - that being blatantly Conservative didn't matter - we could stop pouring money into building a 'balanced' image and instead pander to this other image and perhaps grab a few more consumers.

If I recall, many of Zogby's polls include items for which they are paid (as consultants) to get basic market research. There are a number of different entities (from Dean to Clark to the Bushteam) that might be interested if awareness of this issue differed from what was reported in the candidate preference question.

While I have seen such type of questioning in other type of survey research (social sciences, academic; not political) I can see how the phrasing of the question could appear to look like Push Polling. But it does not to appear to be the case.

Let's make Skwmom do it! :)

How do you know the order in which the questions were asked?

Also, don't you think it's a little contradictory to suggest that what you see as an insinutation against Clark (non-partisanship), you later defend as one of his better attributes?

you were responding to the original post...never mind (edited)

And they're right...this kind of questioning supress Clark's support to %5 when we all know it's 6%.....damn people!!!

When gw's primary campaign called and asked voters if Cain was a lying cheater .. that was a push poll.

"Nearly one in four (39%) think their candidate should be a lifelong Democrat, while 19% are willing to accept a recent convert, and 30% say it makes no difference."

So 49% say it doesn't matter or it's okay .. that does not qualify as a push poll.

Cool. I didn't know the others dropped out.

There's only one Democrat running for the nomination. Didn't you get the memo? :-)

(It's still very much a race here folks. Ain't no time to coast.)

to ask of anyone voting for a Democratic candidate for president.

Didn't like the answers you got there, huh?

:shrug:

fewer than four stars?

running for Pres. Maybe I am missing something, but I don't understand how the question pushes toward Dean more than the others.:shrug:

this wording actually helps them. or..... it hurts them. But it certainly isolates and stigmatizes Kerry as a "tired old" lifelong democrat- if that is your jaded view of Democrats.
The point I am making is that this was an inapproprate intro. to the poll. It prejudices thinking in either direction.

I don't think so. He's been a Dem since college.

Sorry but there's no real proof 'til you've run for office or at the very least campaigned for or publicly endorsed someone else.

I think that number omits his Lt. Governor contest, in fact. I believe Kerry has not had to face voters as many times as Dean. (If my math is right, anyway.) Not sure what you're trying to say here, NewYorkerfromMass.

And actually Dean campaigned for other Democrats going WAY back. Including Richard Gephardt for President in 1988. (He endorsed Gephardt back then.)

He was 28. Howard got into the scrum in '88 you say? That would make him 40. Yeah, comparitively Dean's a recent convert.

1988 was an example.

Kerry and Dean have had about the same number of election campaigns. (Senators only stand for election every six years. Vermont governors every two.)

I would also note that Dean has executive experience as Governor and Senator Kerry does not. Dean is the only chief executive among all the Democrats in the race. Historically governors have had a much better track record winning the presidency.

So it can be argued Kerry has (some) executive experience as a lt. governor.
To recap: 1972 (lost house of rep. race)
1982 Lt. gov. (won- Note: Dukakis was NOT the incumbent, having been voted out in favor of Ed King (R) in '78)
1984 Senate (won)
1990 Senate (won)
1996 Senate (won)
2002 Senate (won)

Besides running for the Senate at the next possible election?

So it is fair to say he's campaigning for the first time as a populist fighter that he NEVER was before in his entire career as a politician.

Since he was about 18 or 19, most likely. All of his adult life. And certainly all of his political life. So get over it already, this "recent convert" argument is going nowhere.

at least he had some convictions.

This is the FIRST year he embraced the left.

The fact that a major pollster like Zogby would do this sort of thing really frightens me. They really need to be "called on the carpet" for this.

I've done a lot of polling on various campaigns and worked for a marketing company - IMO this is very WRONG.

Does anyone know who did that infamous poll in South Carolina for the Bush campaign in which they asked if people would vote for McCain if they knew?

This sort of thing needs to stop - I don't care WHOSE campaign did it - Kerry, Dean, Gephardt, Kucinich, Edwards...

The presentation of 'different types of Democrats' prejudiced respondents to think about their choice in a certain way. It would be enough to influence some answers.

Woulld have to mean the question was asked before candidate preference. Was it?

For cripe's sake! We're only talking about the Democratic nomination for president!

How incredibly lame to even think that question might influence DEMOCRATS!

Then in another post you say "I got it from another site." You have the poll posted.

You say this:
"The following question was asked "prior" to asking the person to vote for a democratic party nominee:"

The poll says it was the last question.

There is just no excuse for this kind of stuff directed toward any candidate. Why in the world did you use Dean's name in your subject line? This was nothing to do with Dean more than any others.

You suggest that Zogby would poll for the Dean campaign? Did I just fall off a turnip truck?

Let me make my point clear: Question: Should the Democratic party nominate someone who is a lifelong Democrat, or would Democrats be wise to select someone who is a recent convert to their way of thinking.

This is a lie intentionally meant to paint Clark as an opportunist – since when has Clark just decided to think that affirmative action was right etc. I think he’s held his beliefs for quite some time, – he just never selected a party. In addition, the only time I have ever heard anyone say “Is that a wise thing to do they were inferring hey that’s not a smart thing to do!

It's really sad when people are unwilling to see that this is slimy, dishonest, and deceptive polling.

I understand your point (I think I do) about the questions that were asked. What I don't understand is why you think this was push-polling for Dean, when there are seven other Dem candidates besides Dean & Clark.

typo

Eight candidates have been Democrats for a long, long time and the ninth became a democrat on September 17, 2003.

Fact, right?

Where's the lie?

Posted this on another thread that got locked for being a dupe - so sorry to those who have already read this....

Article re: Dean Campaign doing "push polling" against Clark in NHhttp://www.politicsnh.com/archives/pindell/2003/september/10_8pp.shtml

-snip-

...According to the Clark campaign at least three people, all located in vicinity of the Seacoast area, received telephone calls Sunday and Monday that appeared to be 'push polling', a method of asking how a potential voter might react about a candidate, in this case Clark, had they known some negative, possibly untrue fact, about the candidate.

Sue Mayer, a 53-year-old former Ph.D. student from Lee, said that around 5pm Monday she received a call from a female identifying herself as Shannon working for NH Opinion Research, a group that appears to be bogus.

Mayer said she had been slightly interested in Clark at the time of the call. At first she confirmed she was a Democrat that votes regularly in in elections. Then she was asked her preferences of candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination.

In the next series of questions she said she was asked whether she thought candidate "A", which had the background similar to Gov. Howard Dean's, was best prepared for the presidency or candidate "B", who had a military and non-political background like Clark.

When she said she preferred candidate "B" she was then asked a series, she says, that asked her if she would still support General Clark (saying Clark by name and no longer using terms like candidate "B") more if she had known he had voted for Republicans or had his integrity questions by former General Hugh Shelton, Clark former commanding officer.

"The questions appeared to go from a regular poll that I usually take to getting slimy in tone," Mayer said in an interview. "At one point I said 'what are you doing', but she didn't say anything.

-snip-

Dean spokesperson Dorie Clark said her campaign hadn't heard of any push polls recently using the likeness of Governor Dean.

"Our campaign doesn't conduct push polling," she said. "It is a harmful practice."

against Edwards, Gephardt and Kerry last summer.

Unfortunately there are people and organizations that do this stuff. Sometimes it's Candidate A him/herself, sometimes it's Candidate B (in order to test his/her own weaknesses), and sometimes it's another party (such as the Republican Party) or its minions.

I would take both the Clark and Dean campaigns at their word that they're not doing this stuff. It could be another campaign or it could be another party.