Which issue will be the most important in 2004?

Of these two major issues which will probably have the most lasting effect on the outcome of the 2004 presidential election?

The Economy or Iraq.

If you choose other issues--what issues do you think they would be?

We'll still be in Iraq. With no end in sight.

And the economy will be in terrible shape. I'm guessing 8% unemployment.

if that is the case you would be correct, but now economists are forcasting 6-7% economic growth this quarter. I don't think we will see many jobs created, but I'm thinking we won't see a big hike in unemployment either.

were wrong before as well. There's only been one loud economist who's been consistently correct, Paul Krugman. All the other ones with strong opinions have been shown wrong.

I think there's still a bubble, composed of high personal debt and inflated real estate prices, as a result of the excessively low interest rates. We're gonna see another major drop in the economy, IMO.

despite the voodoo economics, the economy is probably going to be OK a year from now. the (still ongoing) war will be the kicker.

Iraq at this point is harder to turn around. If casulties continue the way they have and the unrest and financial burden taxpayers are doling out it will be THE issue. The economy maybe too if better growth doesn't lead to many more jobs.

the right will see to it

I'm picturing Santorum at the GOP convention in New York giving a speech about "family values" and the "evils" of gay marriage.

Gay bashing will most definitely be a part of the Republican campaign plan.

Actually, I don't think gay-bashing works anymore as an issue. It may appeal to a few fundamentalists and those who are generally just complacent and afraid of change and differences, but Santorum got a lot of heat for his gay-bashing and if he tried it again at the national convention that would just give critics too much ammo.

It might still play well in rural conservative hamlets, but on the national stage in 2004 it would just be a liability to be perceived as homophobic and bigoted. Too many people watch Will and Grace, Queer Eye for the Straight Guy, etc.

Or maybe that's just wishful thinking.

by whatever lies or half-truths the administration can come up with about whoever the Democratic candidate is. I fear.

Our healthcare system is breaking down and has reached the crisis point. Every day people die because they don't have insurance. Even some of the fairly well off are finding themselves in a position where they can't afford health insurance. This issue is personal and it will resonate.

I hope.

I think the primary issue will be national security.

I have lived through the entire "Cold War". As a child I remember the great concern, the "duck & cover" drills. As an adult it was the dominate topic in every election, except possibly in 76. Even then, if it wasn't first, it was a close second, and Carter was a former Naval Officer. At first national security was home territory for the Dems. But in 72 we surrendered that ground to the Reps and have been paying for it ever since.

In 92 the Communist Empire had fallen, people felt safe, and we Dems were given a chance to lead the country. We did pretty good. Then the Reps got the presidency back, 9-11 happened and now people are concerned again. National security will be the top issue.

#2 Issue - It depends on how the economy is doing. If the recovery continues and gets stronger, it won't be much of an issue. Then look for the Reps to try some wedge social issues that are focus group hot button tested. Ex: Gay marriage, Slavery reparations. If the economy tanks, then the social wedges won't be that strong.