latest Zogby poll: BUSH LOSES!

http://pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

second one down. His reelect ratings are 46/47. And remember, undecideds usually break 2:1 against the incumbent, so it looks like a 49/51 against no opponent!

the above CNN poll also has him only at 50.

Good news, but my darkest fear - Bush is setting us up for another 9/11 so his numbers will go back up. I know it's beyond evil - but I don't put it past him.

I came across this today. Not much has changed since Martin O'Malley said this in January:

http://www.ci.baltimore.md.us/mayor/speeches/sp030125.html

Mr. President, as we await next week's State of the Union, remember that our nation is failing the front line soldiers of our homeland defense - our fire, police and health workers. 501 days after the attacks of 9/11, our first responders are still without the necessary equipment, training and communication systems that they need for America's homeland defense.
Our nation cannot fund America's homeland security on local property taxes and fire hall bingo proceeds. Your neglect of homeland defense funding has relegated "the common defense" to yet another unfunded federal mandate for already cash-strapped cities - cities that are still reeling from federal and state tax cuts that primarily benefit the wealthy, and a damaged and sluggish economy. Mr. President, this is no way to protect our people at home, to provide for the common defense, and to win the war on terrorism.

Please, Mr. President, no more teary tributes to our fallen police and fire heroes until you back up our living first responders with the tools and equipment they need to protect our nation. These are the nation's real priorities.

...the preparation:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=61764&mesg_id=61764&page=

as a sticker for my car. Good stuff!

*'s polls are going to drop even further, probably into the low 30's.

Best laugh of the day.

in 2 1/2 years.

As for Bush, CBS shows him with a 60% approval rating, their lowest since prior to 9/11, Newsweek shows Bush at 55% approval. These numbers are typically 15% above the likely support number, though the Newsweek poll shows Bush beating all comers in head-to-head match-ups:

When registered voters were asked who they would vote for in a general presidential election between Bush and a Democratic opponent, Bush won every race—against Dean (53 percent vs. 38 percent), Edwards (51 percent vs. 39 percent), Gephardt (51 percent vs. 42 percent), Kerry (50 percent vs. 42 percent) and Lieberman (52 percent vs. 39 percent).

http://www.mydd.com/archives/000675.html

He's gone from "Who?" to top contender. Now it's time for him to pull ahead! :)

Zogby is going to have to do a lot to regain my trust. Zogby predicted Deocrats gaining in both the House and Senate in 2002 and was blown out of the water by the results. Unless there have been some changes as to how data is accumulated, I'll take any Zogby polling with a grain of salt.

...First, despite the Republican tsunami described by many media outlets, the actual electoral shift was quite mild. Though politically the election was a landmark, the underlying numbers suggest a continuing partisan balance. Democrats lost two seats in the Senate, six in the House, and gained three governorships. As nonpartisan analyst Charlie Cook has pointed out, "A swing of 94,000 votes out of 75,723,756 cast nationally would have resulted in the Democrats capturing control of the House and retaining a majority in the Senate on Nov. 5. If that had occurred, obituaries would have been written--inevitably and prematurely--about the presidency of George W. Bush. Instead, we are entertained by predictions that the Democratic Party, as we know it, may cease to exist."

...As Matthew Dowd, polling director at the Republican National Committee, has pointed out, if minorities and whites vote in 2004 as they did in the 2000 election, Democrats will win by 3 million votes, for just that reason.

...Research by political scientist James Gimpel confirms that Hispanic voting patterns haven't shifted.

...What limited data there are on Asian voters indicate that they, too, haven't wavered in their support of Democrats.

...The 2002 election was also an aberration from the perspective of voter turnout. Usually, it's the Democrats who fire up their base and deliver a bravura performance of getting voters to the polls. Last year, however, Democrats dragged their feet, while Republicans did an outstanding job.


http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2003/0305.teixeira.html

right after the election then promptly lost the link.

Still a 50/50 nation - don't have to swing that many to oust the bastards.

but then Rick Kahn opened his mouth at the Wellstone memorial. Remember?

http://www.startribune.com/stories/1752/3420030.html

.

Keep the pressure on! Big media will sign onto to Bush's effort to change the subject so let's do our bit to keep them on message.

I've never been sure how much emphasis to place on the event. It may indeed have tipped races in other states as well. Nother gets the Republicans out to the polls like rage against the Democrats. That siad, let's say Dean gets the nomination. The Dean supporters are just the sort of vitriolic Democrats that galvanize the right to get out and vote. I guarantee that the first time Goerge W. Bush is burned in effigy by Dean supporters, that clip will be played over and over again. It was scenes of a similar nature thet swept Richard Nixon into office.

re: Wellstone, more from that article:

Given the very evenness of partisan division in this country, even minor fluctuations in public sentiment can cause sudden lurches in political power.