What Does Your Gut Tell You IOWA Is Gonna Turn Out Like?

Who do you think is gonna pull it out?

I say Kerry. I think a lot of people are gonna go into the polls supporting Gephardt or Dean or Clark, and look one last time over the field and see that John Kerry is the best man for the job in 2004.

I know that's my pipedream. But it's also what my gut tells me. Because for me, Kerry is the "safe" candidate.

If Bush IS beatable in 2004. He's going to be beatable by John Kerry.

If Bush ISN'T beatable in 2004. Kerry will lose. And so would any Democrat we put there.

Why not go with the "safe" candidate if Bush is beatable anyway? Maybe Dean would scare off some people. Maybe Lieberman would turn off the Dean/Green set.

I watched the debates, or at least the replay of the last one. The first thing that hit me was how bad Clark was. He is soundbite-driven with nothing inciteful to say.

He is a resume with a suit on.

And so I think, in my heart of hearts, that Kerry is going to win because people are going to look over the field and in their final moment, change their mind and go with the "safe" candidate.

And, IMO "safe" does NOT equal DULL, or BORING, or CENTERIST/MODERATE.

It means that he combines the best atttributes of every candidate.

Dean's Northeast upbringing and liberal social policies.
Gephardt's experience.
Clark's military card.
Lieberman's gravitas.
Edwards speaking ability.

Yeah, I'm biased in favor of Kerry. And I'll vote for whomever gets the nomination. Even Lieberman, and I won't hold my nose and vote for him. I'll vote for him proudly, because even he would be 100x better than the joke we got right now.

So what is your gut telling you?

If not his candidacy ends.

With all due respect to Dean, and the others.

.. tells me that Dean's support is partially outside of the regular crowd that attends Iowa's caucuses every 4 years. I'm betting that there will be increased turnout largely due to this, based on other points in a pattern of increased voter participation (Dean's donations, rallies, MeetUps, etc). And yes, I'm biased.. lol..

Dean by about 5%.

And I agree with you totally about Lieberman. Despite some high-profile disagreements he has with the party base, his scores from liberal legislative watchdog are tons better than Bush's would be. I'm all about court nominees, and Holy Joe can still produce on that count.

he's going to have to loosen up and start mingling with the common folks if he's going to go anywhere. He has seemed rather stiff and aristocratic every time I've seen him on TV.

I can't imagine him acting like that in Vietnam and not getting fragged, so he must have it in him to be friendly and approachable. He needs to rediscover that part of himself.

will give him a narrow edge over Geppy.

Gephardt will win Iowa

He's really having to work hard on wins that should have been solid for him. No guarantees, tho. with Dean in the race, there's a certain amount of unpredictability.

Bravo to both of them for courting the middle america vote and not taking it for granted. Clark & Joe are taking a big risk by conceding Iowa.

Is that possible in a caucus state? :)

Dean admires Harry Truman and probably identifies with him...I think Iowans admire a Truman figure:

from David McCullogh's book on Harry Truman:
(David McCullough wrote the essay on Harry Truman for the book Character Above All, published earlier this year by Simon & Schuster. He also appears on the PBS television program adapted from the book.)

He had arrived first in Washington in the 1930s as a senator notable mainly for his background in the notorious Pendergast machine of Kansas City. He was of Scotch-Irish descent, and like many of Scotch-Irish descent--and I know something of this from my own background--he could be narrow, clannish, short-tempered, stubborn to a fault. But he could also be intensely loyal and courageous. And deeply patriotic. He was one of us, Americans said, just as they also said, "To err is Truman." .....

He was, as his pal Harry Vaughan, once said, "one tough son-of-a-bitch of a man...And that," said Vaughan, "was part of the secret of understanding him." He could take it. He had been through so much. There's an old line, "Courage is having done it before.".......

thing.

I think the last I saw was 26%/26%. Iowa seems nearly static over the past couple of months.