"The economy is roaring back" ?

The Economy is Roaring Back ??

For the first time in three years there is actually some positive news about the economy. Its been so long I'm not sure the right wing business news community quite knows how to deal with good news that they don’t have to make up or lie about.

So there it is, the headlines scream it everywhere.. The economy is back!

Pardon me for thinking here, but my first question is .. if the economy is going backward isn't that a bad thing?

Well, what they are trying to say is the economy is 'back' to like it was in the old days, back when Bill Clinton was in charge.

Actually its nowhere near what it was like under Clinton, but heck, you can't really blame them for getting excited, they just got the first bit of good news in the three long terrible years Bush has been in charge of the economy.

While in reality we are no where near 'back' .. it is a sliver of hope, and a very fine sliver at that. Sorry, but I don’t invest, buy a house, or make a living off slivers of hope.

And here is another hard dose of reality.. For the last 75 years every American recession was started by a Republican president and corrected by a Democratic president.

I think that bears repeating, especially for my conservative friends having a hard time dealing with a bad case of denial..

FACT-
- For the last 75 years every American recession was started by a Republican president and corrected by a Democratic president.

And as we struggle through the second Bush recession, isn't it strange to hear business writers and even political pundits, go on and on celebrating going 'backwards'. Strange times indeed.

While we may have one quarter that is 'back' to about half what Clinton had.. I have an even better idea...

Why don’t we get another economically responsible Democrat as president and not just go 'back' to as good as it was before ... But go FORWARD, to an even BETTER economy!

Imagine that!

Actually you don’t have to imagine it, there is a 75 year record of proof, just vote for the Democrat and another great economy will be a reality!

It really is that easy.


Best!
Kelley


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hasn't been very impressed with the "soaring economy" either. One quarter of good numbers does not a recovery make. I'm waiting for 4thQ and 1stQ results, that will be a more solid indication that things are turning around. However the little cowboy was strutting his stuff today wasn't he? All proud of his booming economy and all. There are still 3+ million workers that had jobs under Clinton that don't have them now, he may have a hard time convincing these folks that the good times are rolling and that the Bush economic miracle is sweeping the nation.

I have been listening to these business prognosticators for years now.

Not sure if you have noticed this or not, but when they are on tv talking about the economy they always say, always, they say .. "It looks like things will get better in the next 6 months".

I have been listening to that for over three years now, over and over.

Funny thing is, if you have any kind of memory, you will remember that the exact same damn 'experts' kept saying the Clinton stock market and economy couldn’t go up any more.

They always said it, starting way back in '95 on cnbc, over and over.. Things are good but in six months they will be terrible.

Just like they have been saying now, things will get better in six months.

There is a pattern there, don’t ya think?

caused all recessions, and we fixed them. Most were self-contained within the repub administrations. Like the two self-contained recessions of Eisenhower, the Nixon and Ford recessions, and Reagan's recession in 81.

Truman ran into two recessions after the war, and Im pretty sure Carter left in the midst of a recession.

Kennedy also ran into a minor recession in the beginning of his term that he was able to turn into unprecedented growth.

""and Reagan's recession in 81.""

Just to set the record straight. There was no recession in 1981.

Reagan soon caused a huge recession after his tax cut for the rich. That was in 1982 and then in 1983 the results of Ronnies economic policies gave America the most unemployed ever recorded.

FACT-
-There were more unemployed Americans in 1983 after Ronald Reagan's tax cut for the rich (voodoo economics .. Trickle on your leg!) than any other time in the history of America.


Ok, give Bush a chance, he did the same thing but entered with the best economy in history.

Then you said..

"Im pretty sure Carter left in the midst of a recession."

Sorry, Wrong!

Mr Carter 'entered' office with a terrible recession, caused by Mr Ford and Mr Nixon.

Carter corrected that Republican recession, just like very single Democrat the previous half century.

And the same pattern continues for the next quarter century. A terrible recession for 12 long years under Republicans Reagan and Bush One.

Followed by Democrat Bill Clinton who had the biggest economic expansion in the history of the United Sates economy.

Then, that was followed by Bush II, who has a combination of all the people from the Reagan recession, the Ford recession, the Nixon recession, and also the first Bush recession.

What we have now is a combo.. A super combo.

Now we have all the last five Republican failures combined into one.


WooHoo!!

.

but there were technically no recessions between 1976-1979. Nixon/Ford gave us the most severe post-war recession from 73-75. There was a minor recession in 1980, and there was recession another recession during 81-82.

There was no 12 year recession under Reagan/Bush, horrible economic policy, but it wasnt recession.

(note, I am only considering 2 or more quarters of retraction in the GDP as a recession, I dont know what your criteria is)

"but there were technically no recessions between 1976-1979."

Yes correct, that is when a Democrat was in charge.

"Nixon/Ford gave us the most severe post-war recession from 73-75."

Yes, correct. Republicans.

"There was a minor recession in 1980, and there was recession another recession during 81-82."

Not sure what you are talking about there. There was not a recession until 1983, one year after Ronnie's huge tax-cut for the rich.
The recession after they did that was huge.


"There was no 12 year recession under Reagan/Bush, horrible economic policy, but it wasn't recession."

Umm, see above about 1983 (worst ever!) for the middle of St Rons terms.

Also reference the huge stock market crash under Reagan in 1987. Serious disaster.


And right after that, if you don’t think the first Bush recession didn’t compound things..


Its ALWAYS a Republican that ruins the economy.


Kelley

recession officially ended in March of 75.

>>Not sure what you are talking about there

There was a recession from Q1-Q3 of 1980, look it up.

>>Umm, see above about 1983 (worst ever!) for the middle of St Rons terms.

There was no recession in 1983. There was however a 16 month long recession from July of 1981- November of 1982. Not the worst, in terms of GDP retraction, that honor belongs to Nixon/Ford. After 1982 there were no recessions until 1990.

>>Also reference the huge stock market crash under Reagan in 1987. Serious disaster

Yes, disaster, I lost thousands of dollars, but it didnt cause a recession. Stock market does not equal economy.

>>And right after that, if you don’t think the first Bush recession didn’t compound things..

Bush I recession was relatively minor by post war standards, although bush was a horrible politician and we capitalized big time. :)

Ok, I think you are much smarter than I am.

Please tell me what the unemployment rate was for 1983.

no doubt the economic policies of Reagan were disastrous, but I am defining recession by 2 or more consecutive quarters of retraction in the GDP.

After November of 1982, there was not two or more consecutive quarters of retraction in the GDP until the period of July 1990-March of 1991.

So you say the Reagan recession started the 2nd yr of his term, instead of Ronnies third year.

And you say that the first Bush recession started in 1990.

>>So you say the Reagan recession started the 2nd yr of his term, instead of Ronnies third year.

And you say that the first Bush recession started in 1990.


Thats not what Im saying, thats just how it is. Look it up yourself if you wish.

Thanks for the "great economy" - can I have a job yet?

(well, I am lucky enough to have a job, but this would be the burning question on one of my best friends' mind.)

tax rebates and home re-financing, nothing really solid ... and if you notice many people (not those just here) really aren't buying it (part because they see what's going on around them (and it isn't good) and part because of all the dishonesty from Dumbya about the war with Iraq

you can attribute it to the ONE-SHOT child-credit checks - will there be such a check coming this quarter? Nope

other things to look at -

more jobs have been lost this quarter - think it's something like 41,000

Consumer Spending dropped
- Bush sounded guarded, telling factory workers in Columbus, Ohio, Thursday: "We cannot expect economic growth numbers like this every quarter."

On Friday, one senior Bush political strategist echoed the president's call for congressional enactment of his "six-point plan" for further economic revival. The plan includes a national energy bill, medical liability reform and trade expansion.

Bush's caution seems well-placed. The Commerce Department reported Friday that consumer spending dropped by 0.3% in September — the largest monthly drop in a year, after growing by 1% in July and another 1.1% in August.

- those of us with jobs are working longer and harder for less money, so if we are producing the same or more - where's the pressure to hire more people?

- most companies are looking very cautiously at the Bush Boom and are holding back on new hires
currently - the spin-heads are blaming the cost of health insurance benefits as the reason most companies are not hiring

- FED is holding interest rates - this says to me that the FED is being cautious and they have concerns about sustained growth

---------

like most of Baghdad-Bush's plans/policies - they "sound" good, make a big splash when first implemented, but they have no sustaining power

I think the Bush Boom will fall down and go boom

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ie=ISO-8859-1&scoring=d&edition=us&q=plant+closings&btnG=Search+News

LaFayette Ronile plant to close by June 2004
Walker County Messenger, GA - 2 hours ago
... We feel the closings and downsizing of ... Ronile anticipates maintaining current employment
levels at the LaFayette plant for the next five to eight months.”. ...

Flatware maker Oneida Ltd. to close five plants
Detroit News, MI - 2 hours ago
... plant in Buffalo, NY, and four plants in Mexico, China and Italy as it adjusts
to slumping sales and tries to return to profitability. The closings will ...

Smithfield chief: no layoffs, plant closings for Farmland unit
Miami Herald, FL - Oct 30, 2003
... Foods, which this week completed its purchase of the pork division of Kansas City-based
Farmland Industries, does not plan layoffs or plant closings, president ...
Farmland Foods' buyer gives Wichita pep talk - Kansas City Star
and more »

Textile plant closings concern textile students at NC State
The North Carolina State Technician, NC - Oct 14, 2003
The recent textile plant closings throughout North Carolina have spurred
concern among the workers, government and even students. ...


Ford sets timetable for US plant closings
Jefferson City News Tribune, MO - Oct 5, 2003
... said the new contract provides greater flexibility to move workers from one plant ... Krygier
said the closings, along with shift reductions, are part of an effort ...


Plant closings boost power prices
Boston Globe, MA - Oct 8, 2003
... shut its 1,100-megawatt Hope Creek nuclear plant in Hancocks Bridge, NJ, Saturday
because of a hydraulic control system oil leak, a spokesman said, and FPL ...


Thumb Area hit hard with plant closings
WJRT, MI - Oct 8, 2003
By Terry Camp. Michigan — (10/08/03)--The Thumb Area has been hit
hard the last couple of years with plant closings and job losses. ...


DETROIT: plant closings.
MLive.com (subscription), MI - Oct 6, 2003
In addition to more than 300,000 automotive workers across the country, the contracts
with the Big Three and the two suppliers affect another half-million ...


LaFayette Ronile plant to close by June 2004
Walker County Messenger, GA - 2 hours ago
... We feel the closings and downsizing of ... Ronile anticipates maintaining current employment
levels at the LaFayette plant for the next five to eight months.”. ...


PolyOne to Close Plant in Wynne
Arkansas Business Online, AR - Oct 30, 2003
... PolyOne said employees affected by the plant closings will be eligible for severance
benefits and outplacement services and will be able to apply for job ...

U.S. 3rd quarterly GDP: ~$3 trillion
change from same 2002: ~$220 billion

increase in federal deficit spending between the two: unknown, but somewhere between $50 billion and $150 billion.

Growth in GDP measurement: +$220 billion
Growth in national capital/wealth: -$100 billion or more
Money loaned from other countries: unknown, with interest costs

Net gain in national wealth: probably a net loss
Change in per capita wealth: decrease

Oh, things are sure going better.

I used to have some money saved, now I'm living paycheck to paycheck...plus I never got a check from the government due to the tax cut because I'm single...

After so many bad quarters, finally an up one...will marvels ever cease? But wasn't this the bump we were supposed to get from WhittleAss' FIRST tax cut?

I've always seen Wall Street as nothing but a big casino...where reality can be easily subverted by trick of hand. This is what we saw in 3Q, since if Wall Street really indicated what was best for our economy there'd be a lot of profitable dot.coms and hand puppets on TV this holiday season.

As someone adroitly noted, all those billions for this "war on terror" and the Iraq invasion had to go somewhere...and there's nothing more enjoyable after "mission accomplished" to a good round of profit taking and war profiteering.

The biggest gobbledy-gook is where these economic pundits credit growth...especially with multi-national corporations. How do we know GE sold more light bulbs or was it lazer-guided bombs?

I haven't seen these many unemployed people and with such a poor outlook on things since Poppy. Corporate downsizing, consolidation and moving off-shore have taken a 25-year toll on this economy that we're really feel bite now...especially with Repugnicans in charge.

Is that the american public is too stupid to realize that republican presidents ALWAYS screw up the economy.

One of the greatest Repugnican lies is the concept that they represent smaller government and less spending. Then they lie as to how good things are despite the contrary. I was so confused in the 80's as I struggled with prices that always seemed to outstrip what I was earning. That was the real lie of the Raygun "prosperity"...sure incomes went up, but so did the prices of everything else.

Now we're stuck in a virtually stagnant economy...held together with refinancing and artificial numbers. Lately, I'm seeing discontent in my predominately Repugnican area...if they haven't been bit by a job loss or downsizing, then it's the disappearance of their savings and 401ks. These people are getting both frustrated and dishearatened and sure can't go to their party leaders for any real help. They'll be told to "gut it up". I have no pity.

If this is economic recovery, I don't want any more.

Doubt this will make major headlines before the upcoming NOV. 4 elections.

US consumer spending eases
By Alan Beattie in Washington
Last Updated: October 31 2003 19:49

Consumer spending in the US tailed off sharply at the end of the third quarter, according to data released on Friday, adding to economists' suspicions that the economy would slow considerably after its breakneck growth over the summer.

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1066565535239&p=1012571727102

Can't wait to see the 3rd Quarter revised GDP estimate due out on NOV. 25.