Pollkatz is back! And Bush's numbers are, too (back DOWN, that is).

And this does not even include the latest numbers from Zogby (53%), CNN/Time (55%) and CNN/USAToday/Gallup (59%).

I've said it before and I'll say it again, Bush will be at or near 40% approval by year's end. If you follow the trend lines from inauguration to 9-11, from the 9-11 bounce to just before the Iraq War, and from the Iraq War bounce to the present, they all point there. No matter what he does or what happens (wars, terra), the decline resumes, and always steeper.

This constant decline is the true indicator of Bush's "popularity".

eom

in the next week or so, then they will
continue to nose dive.

If anything, the last couple of numbers (not reflected on graphic) reflect the decline to be steepening. In any case, Saddam's sons dead or not, the WMD issue is building, not dying.

And then there's the new revelation that WH officials likely committed a federal offense in outing Joseph Wilson's wife as a CIA operative. Scott McLellan sounded mighty nervous with his repeated assertions today that that was not "how the White House does business" (all the while refusing to deny it). This will blow up soon, as not only Robert Novak stands behind it, but Time Magazine independently verifies that 2 senior administration officials committed this federal offense.

And then there are the soldiers returning in body bags...

If the Emperor's numbers are down, it is time for another distraction.

LIHOP II?

Thaw out the corpse of Raygun?

They're going to need something bigger that the phony deaths of Hussein's sons.

I have absolutely no doubt that Hussein's sons are alive and well.

Not that I am happy about that. They are Iraqi Bushes.

I really like this plot...you can see a general trend operating as a consensus of the various polls.....

Prior to 9-11 it looks like he was hovering in the 50% to 60% range...no real obvious downward trend, either..well maybe a slight one.

Its really obvious how the 9-11 and war bounces artificially inflated the numbers.

Admittedly, the decline before 9-11 was probably not statistically significant (the spread was greater than the observed decline), it was nevertheless there... stable at best.

The decline in popularity (with a war bounce that is almost gone) since 9-11 is inarguable, though.

It seems whenever Bush is left to do his job, he loses supporters by the day. Pollkatz used to have a "Bush Approval Countdown Clock" or something. It used a model based on all of the polling, figured in with the number of voters who voted for him, to visually depict the ongoing loss of voters for Bush. It was great, but I think he stopped it because the trend became less obvious with the (now shown to be artificial) war bounce.

Please

B-)

http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/

I "posted" it in the original post, but it reflected as simply displaying the graphic. This takes you to the home page.

Fascinating!

Every time someone asks DU to vote in an on-line poll, I wish I had this picture. This, a combination of many polls, showing a trend, is the best (maybe only) way, IMHO, to look at polling data.