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Will we win Louisiana in 2004?

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Dob Bole Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-22-03 06:55 PM
Original message
Will we win Louisiana in 2004?
This is something I haven't given much thought to, but the "I hate the French vanilla" ice cream reminded me of it. Has Bush's standing in Louisiana been affected by the neo-cons' anti-French rantings? Clinton carried the state twice, but Gore lost it because of black voter turnout. The state's 30% black, but most of the white people are of French descent (and Catholic.) This could mean sudden death for Bush. See if you can find any info on it.
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baffie Donating Member (362 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-22-03 06:59 PM
Response to Original message
1. Possible Obstacle: I believe LA is one of the states where
massive numbers of African-Americans were prevented from voting.

Which reminds me, I'm going to contact Maxine Waters' office to see what's being done to prevent that in the future.
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TheBigGuy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-22-03 07:00 PM
Response to Original message
2. thats a real good question...any Pelican Staters here?
I wonder if that Cajun vote is Democratic? Or if most of the state is French...i though the area around Shreveport and the northern part of the state is anglo.....
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tpub Donating Member (508 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-22-03 07:07 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. north LA is Duke country
and, yes, I do mean David Duke. It's more like the typical south (conservative)

south LA (and central) are the cajuns.

the biggest problem down here, in my opinion, is the complete distrust of all politicians, since we've obviously been burned over and over. A previous governor, Edwin Edwards, is currently in jail, and I can't say he's the first.

I think the problem will be getting people to vote AT ALL
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tpub Donating Member (508 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-22-03 07:01 PM
Response to Original message
3. I don't think that had any affect
but I'm going to do my damndest to get out the vote around here. We have Kerry Meetup in New Orleans on Thursday (30+ signed up). Dean Meetup has over 200, I believe. I plan to do whatever I can to register people and drive them to the polls and hope I can convince others to help.
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ShaneGR Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-22-03 07:08 PM
Response to Original message
5. They threw everything at the last Senate race
And we still one, so I say yes!
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tpub Donating Member (508 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-22-03 07:11 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. yes, but Landrieu was the incumbent
and daughter of a former New Orleans mayor

the other lady flip-flopped on her issues and was horrible in interviews
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ButterflyBlood Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-22-03 07:23 PM
Response to Reply #6
9. How'd she flip flop?
from what I heard she was 100% wingnut start to finish.
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tpub Donating Member (508 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-22-03 07:31 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. ha-ha!
you're right, but she was anti-choice, pro-choice, anti-choice, pro-choice

I think that was it.
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ButterflyBlood Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-22-03 07:34 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. she was pro-choice at one point?
sheesh, i heard her #1 issue was outlawing abortion in ALL cases, even to save the life of the mother.
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tpub Donating Member (508 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-22-03 07:38 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. she is female
therefore it would be natural for her to be pro-choice, but I guess since she was Repub, they made her switch
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Jacobin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-22-03 07:18 PM
Response to Original message
7. I'm in South Louisiana.
Funny you should mention the French connection (oops).

I was walking in downtown Lafayette today and went into a small cafe. There were two tables of Parisian French speaking folks visiting with local french speaking folks. We have sort of a twin city thing with some of the French and Louisiana cities and they visit and bring over their musical artists, etc.

ALL the street signs in Lafayette are in French (in english in smaller letters beneath).

North Louisiana might as well be Alabama, for the most part.

The French bashing has not gone over well in South Louisiana. No one has suggested re-naming the French Quarter.

Lots of sons and daughters of Louisiana getting shot up in Iraq and the reasons are not so clear to the average voter.

Call me silly, but I think Dean has a good shot here as a straight talking no-nonsense guy. (I think Kerry would bomb....don't ask me why, its a gut feeling) The New Orleans Picayune starting announcing gay "marriages" today........

Clinton carried Louisiana in both times.

I think the Dems have a very very serious shot to take Louisiana and its few electoral votes. I know I'll be doing my part to help....taking voters to the polls.
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tpub Donating Member (508 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-22-03 07:23 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. Yay!
"I know I'll be doing my part to help....taking voters to the polls."

That's awesome.

We joked at work alot about renaming the French Quarter (I work 2 blocks away).

I think you're right about Dean, and it's because of the distrust of politicians and people don't really see Dean as a typical politician. The people here would probably see Kerry as northeastern liberal, which he is...
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Jacobin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-22-03 07:53 PM
Response to Reply #8
13. Exactly....
on the Kerry thing.

So, where yat??? St. Charles Place?

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tpub Donating Member (508 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-22-03 07:59 PM
Response to Reply #13
14. my office is in the old FNBC building
corner of Baronne and Gravier in CBD. It's one block from Bourbon, 2 blocks from Canal

I have not been to Lafayette in a looong time, although we swing by on the way to Natchitoches to visit my grandmother

and whenever possible we stop to eat at Prejeans!!!! YUMMY!
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tpub Donating Member (508 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-22-03 08:23 PM
Response to Reply #13
15. Jacobin, check your inbox
it's the first time I've tried this, so I hope it works, if not here's a link to another problem we may have in LA

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=108&topic_id=5419&mesg_id=5419&page=
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JCMach1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-22-03 08:29 PM
Response to Original message
16. If we don't win LA, we will lose the election...
EOM
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Lefty48197 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-22-03 08:41 PM
Response to Reply #16
17. NO NO NO
We CAN win without LA! But yes, it would be nice to win LA too!
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tpub Donating Member (508 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-22-03 08:42 PM
Response to Reply #16
18. wait--why do you say that?
LA can't really be that important...
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GumboYaYa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-22-03 09:01 PM
Response to Original message
19. There is a very strong chance that we will.
All indicators are that LA is trending Democratic. 2002 is good evidence. Landrieu won despite a concerted effort by the whole Repug machine, but she did have the incumbent's advantage.

This week new polls were released in the governors election. LA's gubenatorial election is unique in that all candidates from all parties run in the general election. If no candidate gets a majority there is a runoff between the two highest vote getters. The next election pits 4 Repugs veersus 4 Dems. This week's polls showed Richard Ieyoub inching closer to the closest Repug. A Dem is leading the race and now it looks like a definite possibility that the LA voters may having two Dems running for the top spot in the state.

The French connection is also very strong and the whole French bashing does not sit well in South LA. I have several Repug friends who are of French heritage and plenty pissed off about that foolishness.

Laissez le bon temps roule!
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wuushew Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-22-03 09:19 PM
Response to Original message
20. LA GOING DEM COULD CAUSE CONSITUTIONAL CRISIS!
If the electoral map looked the same as 2000(taking into account chages from the 2000 census) with the sole change of LA going dem both parties would have 269 votes. Same situation with CO going dem. If you had a bad after taste in your mouth after 2000 this would be a nightmere situation.

http://www.grayraven.com/ec/
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tpub Donating Member (508 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-22-03 09:23 PM
Response to Reply #20
21. a nightmare, right
we certainly wouldn't want to ADD a state to our winnings, now would we?
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wuushew Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-22-03 09:36 PM
Response to Reply #21
23. But that would lead to VP Dean serving pResident Bush
What if there is an Electoral College tie?

Imagine this: Al Gore is president, and Dick Cheney is vice president. Our system allows for such a possibility because if there is a tie, the newly elected House decides on the president, and the Senate decides on the vice president. A divided Congress could produce a president and vice president of different parties. In the House each state delegation gets one vote (So there! representative democracy). If a delegation is evenly split along party lines and can't come to a consensus, it forfeits its vote. In the Senate each senator has a vote.

http://slate.msn.com/id/1006385/

The 12th Amendment
ratified September 24, 1804

The Electors shall meet in their respective states, and vote by ballot for President and Vice-President, one of whom, at least, shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves; they shall name in their ballots the person voted for as President, and in distinct ballots the person voted for as Vice-President, and they shall make distinct lists of all persons voted for as President, and of all persons voted for as Vice-President, and of the number of votes for each, which lists they shall sign and certify, and transmit sealed to the seat of the government of the United States, directed to the President of the Senate; -- The President of the Senate shall, in the presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the certificates and the votes shall then be counted; -- The person having the greatest number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed; and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote; a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice. And if the House of Representatives shall not choose a President whenever the right of choice shall devolve upon them, before the fourth day of March next following, then the Vice-President shall act as President, as in the case of the death or other constitutional disability of the President. -- The person having the greatest number of votes as Vice-President, shall be the Vice-President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed, and if no person have a majority, then from the two highest numbers on the list, the Senate shall choose the Vice-President; a quorum for the purpose shall consist of two-thirds of the whole number of Senators, and a majority of the whole number shall be necessary to a choice. But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.



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markus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-22-03 09:29 PM
Response to Original message
22. Two things
I should probably keep my mouth shut, because I've been mostly gone since 1986.

But Mike Dukkakis nearly carried Louisiana, and could have if the DNC had shook loose 10 or 15 grand for election day money to get out the vote. But they wrote off the south.

As long as national writes off the South for the presidential, we're doomed.

Also, I'm curious: what happend to the French President coming for Bastile Day. Are people still pissed about his not coming because of Bush.

Hell, I think Louisiana should just succeed, shut down shipping on the Mississippi and demand the return of its territories.

I volunteer to be governer of the Dakota Territory of the Republic du Louisianne if I get to come home for Mardi Gras and Jazz Fest on a gummit ticket.

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jiacinto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-22-03 09:43 PM
Response to Original message
24. It is winnable
It was Clinton's best Southern state in 1996 outside of Arkansas.
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