Assuming our nominee will win every state Gore did...

What state(s) should a substantial amount of resources be devoted to?

I think New Hampshire has a possibility to fall our way

Possibly Nevada?

Note: NH & Nevada results in a tie!

Maybe Arizona can be a target?

Is Florida worthy of consideration?

I really don't know much about the analysis of election trends so someone who is versed in this area, I would appreciate your thoughts.

Bush has to win Florida to have any shot. Dems only need to pick up one small state and they win with your assumption.

With the new electoral college allotments based on the 2000 census, we would need far more than one small state to win.

In 2000, Gore's states had a net total of 267 electoral votes. Now I think the figure is 260.

I hope my home state does go Dem, and I believe Ohio can be coaxed over to our side.

The current Marist poll has 44% definitely voting for the Dem, 38% for Bush - one year before the election. Assuming the other 18% undecided split 12-6 for the Dems, a 56%-44% blowout is possible..

This analysis excludes the Nader effect (2.7% of the total vote). If we assume the Dems get even 60% of the Greens, this would win it for them outright, based on 2000 numbers. No switchover from Bush is needed.

If 10% (1/10) of Bush voters switch to the Dem, add the 124 Electoral votes of the following states to the 267 Gore EV, or 391:

8 ARIZONA
6 ARKANSAS
8 COLORADO
25 FLORIDA
8 LOUISIANA
11 MISSOURI
4 NEVADA
4 NEW HAMPSHIRE
21 OHIO
11 TENNESSEE
13 VIRGINIA
5 WEST VIRGINIA

If 4% (1/25) of Bush voters switch to the Dem, add the 76 Electoral votes of the following states to the Gore EV, or 343:

25 FLORIDA
11 MISSOURI
4 NEVADA
4 NEW HAMPSHIRE
21 OHIO
11 TENNESSEE

Dem - 391 (72.7%)
Rep - 147 (27.3%)

That's what I call a landslide!!! Get it up into FDR territory (98.5% of the electoral vote), and I may just drop dead of a heart attack.

Dem - 343 (63.8%)
Rep - 195 (36.2%)

That would be great too. A decisive victory would go a long way.

Do you really think we could pull it off?

If we carry Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, New Hampshire, West Virginia, and Ohio, that provides a convincing win of 313 EVs.

I know Dean is big with the Dems in NH, but if the Reps like him too and assuming dems hold all states from 2000, NH would be all we need to win.

...and unless they haven't adjusted electoral votes per state due to the recent census, winning everything in 2000 and NH wouldn't put us over the top:

Dem: 264
Repub: 274

You get a nice 313. Those states can all be had too.

My top 6.

...there's just no reason why New Hampshire wouldn't be bank. No reason.

Later.

RJS

With Bush being so eager to dump all of our nuclear waste in Nevada, I can't see them voting for him again. I was amazed that they fell for it the first time. I think even Nevada would have put Gore over the top.

If the next election runs the same way the past one did, Bush would win by 18 electoral votes rather than just four, thanks to reapportionment.

We need to fight Bush on every front and take nothing for granted.

Iowa, Wisconsin, Oregon and a few others went for Gore by only the tiniest of margins.

Having the Dem candidate win every state the dem candidate won in 2000 is certainly in the realm of possibility. I would even venture to say that it is in the realm of being probable.

This isn't really based on jack squat, but it's one of my little dream scenarios...



Add New Hampshire, and the tally becomes (IIRC), 279-259.
Add Arkansas, and it becomes 281-257. Add them both and it becomes 285-253.

NH
WV
KY
TN
MO
AR
LA
FL
NV
CO
AZ

Those are the red states that we should aggressively target.

I would assume this is in the bag for the Dems. I mean, all of those disenfranchised voters, minorities mostly, are gonna come back with avengence, and they're gonna bring a friend or two, too.

Those same disenfranchised voters re-elected Jeb Bush even after every one of them were well aware that is was his office that fucked them in 2000.

Rp

I campaigned for our new Governor Doyle in 2002 and it was way closer than it should have been with Scott McCallum who became Gov. when Tommy Thompson took the Cabinet position from Bush. Thompson so brainwashed these people that even when everything was going in the toilet they voted for McCallum enough to make it relatively close. Same can be said for the Gore win here. If a candidate doesn't spend some real time here, Bush will win here. With the multiple Milwaukee visits he has made and the financial backer of the PNAC being here I think we are going to have to work hard for this state.

Rp