Blowout 2004: Dem 56%, Bush 44% ..Diebold, Diebold, what you gonna do?

Dem - 44%
Rep - 38

Undecided -18
To: Dem 12%
To: Rep 6

Final Score (pre-Diebold):
Dem 56%
Rep 44



The current Marist poll has 44% definitely voting for the Dem, 38% for Bush - one year before the election. Assuming the other 18% undecided split 12-6 for the Dems, a 56%-44% blowout is possible..

This analysis excludes the Nader effect (2.7% of the total vote). If we assume the Dems get even 60% of the Greens, this would win it for them outright, based on 2000 numbers. No switchover from Bush is needed.

If 10% (1/10) of Bush voters switch to the Dem, add the 124 Electoral votes of the following states to the 267 Gore EV, or 391:

8 ARIZONA
6 ARKANSAS
8 COLORADO
25 FLORIDA
8 LOUISIANA
11 MISSOURI
4 NEVADA
4 NEW HAMPSHIRE
21 OHIO
11 TENNESSEE
13 VIRGINIA
5 WEST VIRGINIA

If 4% (1/25) of Bush voters switch to the Dem, add the 76 Electoral votes of the following states to the Gore EV, or 343:

25 FLORIDA
11 MISSOURI
4 NEVADA
4 NEW HAMPSHIRE
21 OHIO
11 TENNESSEE

He will need to swing alot of undecideds which will be tough to do unless the economy really picks up.

The Dems received 13.7 million more votes then the Repukes in the last 3 elections. And that's conservative. Because the Repukes cheat. You all know they did. And they will again. You all know they will.

Because Bush, this very unpopular War pResident, is

(T)he
(O)nly
(A)WOL
(S)ubversive
(T)raitor
running for reSelection....


Here are the total for the last three elections:

.....Dem.................Rep
AL 2,040,999 44.78% 2,516,985 55.22%
AK 223,806 37.65% 370,632 62.35%
AZ 1,840,803 48.82% 1,929,864 51.18%
AR 1,393,953 55.22% 1,130,587 44.78%
CA 15,622,463 57.37% 11,610,566 42.63%
CO 2,038,762 48.81% 2,137,888 51.19%
CT 2,211,580 57.71% 1,620,464 42.29%
DE 446,331 56.87% 338,507 43.13%
FL 7,518,453 50.70% 7,312,217 49.30%
GA 3,172,410 47.59% 3,493,944 52.41%
HI 589,608 60.27% 388,610 39.73%
ID 441,195 35.66% 795,988 64.34%
IL 7,341,852 57.93% 5,331,447 42.07%
IN 2,625,068 44.83% 3,230,293 55.17%
IA 1,224,870 51.81% 1,139,264 48.19%
KS 789,710 42.41% 1,072,283 57.59%
KY 1,304,027 46.68% 1,489,698 53.32%
LA 1,608,315 49.19% 1,661,257 50.81%
ME 909,588 57.08% 683,831 42.92%
MD 3,056,743 57.81% 2,231,058 42.19%
MA 4,468,066 65.27% 2,377,417 34.73%
MI 5,953,153 54.74% 4,921,891 45.26%
MN 3,285,583 55.74% 2,609,360 44.26%
MS 1,189,877 44.31% 1,495,184 55.69%
MO 3,189,690 52.46% 2,890,767 47.54%
MT 458,802 44.89% 563,342 55.11%
NE 680,503 37.52% 1,133,090 62.48%
NV 672,514 49.86% 676,178 50.14%
NH 720,648 51.72% 672,783 48.28%
NJ 4,824,988 56.46% 3,721,079 43.54%
NM 800,615 53.00% 710,032 47.00%
NY 11,065,338 62.60% 6,611,221 37.40%
NC 3,470,857 46.60% 3,977,479 53.40%
ND 300,812 40.85% 435,603 59.15%
OH 6,269,369 50.78% 6,077,546 49.22%
OK 1,435,444 42.78% 1,919,576 57.22%
OR 1,666,881 53.57% 1,444,786 46.43%
PA 6,931,372 54.16% 5,866,536 45.84%
RI 705,834 65.57% 370,557 34.43%
SC 1,541,009 44.41% 1,928,786 55.59%
SD 382,987 44.49% 477,926 55.51%
TN 2,820,840 50.51% 2,764,058 49.49%
TX 7,171,296 44.27% 9,027,708 55.73%
UT 606,679 33.63% 1,197,122 66.37%
VT 421,014 59.39% 287,940 40.61%
VA 3,326,930 47.29% 3,707,981 52.71%
WA 3,140,334 55.88% 2,479,841 44.12%
WV 950,892 53.99% 810,355 46.01%
WI 3,355,912 52.69% 3,013,306 47.31%
WY 206,538 38.31% 332,641 61.69%
DC 364,542 90.39% 38,771 9.61%

Totals 138,779,855 52.61% 125,026,245 47.39%

but has anyone ever tried gathering together a wide variety of polls and averaging them out? We might get a better idea of which way the wind is blowing that way.

This is a good sign.

Now comes the hard part: nominating a candidate who will live up to the public's expectations.

Or maybe just an al Qaida (Operations Northwood) bomb in a mall in Peoria sometime in October...Too unsafe to hold the elections until the terrorists are all captured and America is safe.

Elected officials terms aren't ended by the new elections -- the new elections are timed to give us replacements before the terms end.

This is, effectively, how Bush got into office -- the closest thing to a legal reasoning given by the SCOTUS 5 being that when inauguration day comes, somebody's got to be President.

If they were crazy enough to cancel the elections, their terms will still expire. Bush wouldn't stay President -- it'd default to Colin Powell (who I believe, as an appointed officer, remains in that seat until dismissed by the incoming President) or the President Pro Tempore (Ted Stevens?), depending on whether the latter was up for reelection or not.

Of course, in a dire emergency (i.e. threat of Democratic victory), this does still give the GOP a chance to keep the WH a little longer ...

My prediction of the final totals:

Bush 67%
Dem 28%
Other 5%

Here's the chain of events I predict to bring us to those final results:

1) Beginning in April 2004 and continuing throughout the election cycle, troop levels will be steadily and dramatically increased in Iraq.

2) Throughout the summer and culminating with the Democratic Convention, Bush's ratings drop dramatically due to criticism over Iraq.

3) Bush gets a bit of a "dead cat" bounce after his convention in New York, but it is much smaller than expected due to high levels of protests. Polls are now 56% <insert Democratic nominee's name here> and 42% Bush.

4) "Surprise" bombing raids in Syria and Iran are quickly followed by a ground invasion of both nations in late October. Bush's approval ratings skyrocket to the high 70's and even the 80's in some polls (Faux news puts his approval at just under 97%).

5) Bush wins in a landslide victory as outlined in my above prediction.

These events are followed on by this:

6) Draft is reinstated on November 15th, 2004. Troop levels in the ME must be increased to over 1 million before March of 2005.

I have a baaaaad feeling about 2004, but my feelings about post 2004 are even worse...

You surely jest, of course.

The biggest landslide in history was 60%-39% (Nixon 72)

Do you really have such little respect for the intelligence of the American people?

If on Nov. 2004 polls show a 56%-44% Dem blowout, do you really think all those Bush-haters will let the Bush/Rove dog wag them to the tune of a 28% crossover?

Or, to put it another way, will 50% of Dem voters all of a sudden switch to the Idiot?

I've always had a feeling that a great many Americans were stupid, but I hope to God they would see through such transparent actions.

I hope by 2004 that this country is sick of war and talk of war, and that any attempt by Bush to start another war is met by rolled eyes and cries of "Throw the bastard out!"

Here's the chain of events I predict to bring us to those final results:

1) Beginning in April 2004 and continuing throughout the election cycle, troop levels will be steadily and dramatically increased in Iraq.

How? Krugman said in his column yesterday that the CBO reported "that force levels would have to start dropping rapidly about five months from now, and that the forces in Iraq and Kuwait would eventually have to shrink by almost two-thirds." Seems a draft is required to achieve what you say, and that would be a huge negative for Bush, obviously.

2) Throughout the summer and culminating with the Democratic Convention, Bush's ratings drop dramatically due to criticism over Iraq.

Damn straight.

3) Bush gets a bit of a "dead cat" bounce after his convention in New York, but it is much smaller than expected due to high levels of protests. Polls are now 56% <insert Democratic nominee's name here> and 42% Bush.

Yup.

4) "Surprise" bombing raids in Syria and Iran are quickly followed by a ground invasion of both nations in late October. Bush's approval ratings skyrocket to the high 70's and even the 80's in some polls (Faux news puts his approval at just under 97%).

Iraq wasn't 1/10th the opponent that Syria and Iran would be. Bush gets the ball rolling on WW III, and you think his ratings are going to skyrocket? What are you smoking???

5) Bush wins in a landslide victory as outlined in my above prediction.

Don't think so.

Bush rules through fear and fear will be why the sheeple buy it.

These bastards are experts at propoganda, so much so that the Nazis were rank amateurs compared to them.

anything he says at this point (maybe 35%).

He got away with his lies twice: on the 9/11 LIHOP in which he got a big bounce to 90% and then on the run-up to Iraq (he only got to 72% then).

He's under 50% now, lower than the Bushit polls indicate. A bounce this time will not do a thing for him. The sheeple, as you call them, are on to his act. He's going down, Walt. That should be obvious.

B
U
S
H

I
S

M
E
L
B
A

at least they were able to keep their stories straight.

Françoise

i head for canada...never to return

of course if this happens i don't think the americans will swing towards him...especially if the dems actually push the message that bush doesn't know what he's doing, and only wants perpetual war and prably ethnic cleansing of muslims

editted for clarity

It's possible both Syria and Iran have WMDs. If Bush fucks with them just to eek out four more years, he destroys the Republican party for DECADES.

But I cant assume Karl Rove (who thinks short-term habitually) will be deterred from pursuing such a policy.

Now that everyone knows the Shrubsters true colors, its going to be Dems all the way in 2004. I firmly believe that turnout for the elections are going to be HUGE. All the apathetic Dems from 2000 are going to be lining up around the block to get Dubya out of office.

Missouri is not mentioned as a good toss-up state often enough. It is as wishy-washy as hell. Its not the most pivotal state, but it IS winnable!!

ask Saxby Chambliss. He "won" with a 16 point deficit.

The invasions that they will launch will provide cover for the theft of the election.
They'll probably MIHOP some "incident" as a pretext.
Of course, nobody will buy the same BS yet again, but they'll be told that
everyone else did, and they will probably believe that.
The draft, yes. right after the election, but much bigger than a million,
PNAC has got a world to take over.

incumbent, on average. And Bush was never elected in the first place.

Common sense says that undecideds will move away from Bush as things get worse and worse for him. Scandals are exploding all around him.

So how can he possibly expect to get more than 1/3 of those who have their doubts about him now?

Visit Republican majority polling places the night before the election and smash the electric meters with a big piece of concrete.

Actually, I hope it doesn't come to that. I hope we can change the voting system before the elections.

our side will have to try and hack it in our favor, as the case in Virginia proves, if the electronic "voting" method harms a rethug something WILL be done about it.

Can happen!!!

If you look at the whole poll Bush still has a big lead over any individual canidate. And by this poll the closest is gehphart.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

.

"If the 2004 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are ?"

George
Bush Richard
Gephardt Unsure

% % %
10/03
48
43
9
.

.

George
Bush John
Kerry Unsure

% % %
10/03
48
42
10
.

.

George
Bush Howard
Dean Unsure

% % %
10/03
49
41
10
.

.

George
Bush Joe
Lieber-
man Unsure

% % %
10/03
52
41
7
.

.

George
Bush Wesley
Clark Unsure

% % %
10/03
55
36
9
.


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People will vote for a Democrat as long as he's a nameless spectre? :wtf: is that?

beats Bush, but a named Dem loses.

Believe the generic poll numbers. Each Dem has his/her detractors which eats away from the polling total.

For instance, if Bush is favored 48-43 over Kerry, this just reflects a certain level of disapproval for Kerry. But in the final analysis, after Kerry is nominated, the Dem voter will be fiercely determined to vote for him. ABB.