Gephardt wins Iowa, Deans wins NH, Clark wins SC

Who would be in the best position if this happened? Would Dean be several damaged if he lost Iowa? Would Gephardt's candidacy come to life and make this a three-way race with a victory in Iowa?

Dean is only severely damaged if he loses big in Iowa. Even with expectations sky high now, a close finish with Gep is enough for him, considering his large lead in NH (assuming it holds).

On that note, I am thinking seriously of going to Iowa in January to campaign. Leaving California and going to Iowa in the dead of winter. To work for Dean.

Must be the Kool-Aid. LOL.

We need all the participation in the political process from good people we can get.

I will be there. Maybe we will luck out and it will be one of those rare "warm" Jan days.

are you paid campaign staff? just curious :)

I would be taking time off work, spending my own money to fly and stay there.

Many many other Dean supporters are doing this too. In fact my sister-in-law just told me she's going to NH to work just before the primaries.

My pay will be a Dean win. My birthday is Jan. 20, 1 day after the Iowa caucus, now wouldn't that be a nice present? (Jan. 20 2005 I hope to get the best present ever.)

Dean for Sec HHS! Trippi for DNC chair!

because he has been running basically neck and neck with Gep. Gep is the one who has worked Iowa since 1988 and is expected to win. Even if Dean came in a solid second it could be interpeted as a moral victory for Dean. What I like about Dean is he is running everywhere and isn't pulling out of some states because the polls don't look promising.

Dean hasn't "pulled out" of South Carolina.

But his campaign has been extremely slow to "pull in" there.

I don't get it. :shrug:

Then who comes in second becomes the big question, right?

If Dean wins NH and comes in second in Iowa and SC, then the answer is pretty clear. Same for the others.

:wtf:

In Iowa Harkin won overwhelmingly..with Kerrey coming in second. In New Hamphshire Paul Tsongas came in first with Clinton coming in a close second. And in Georgia Clinton won a majority, with Tsongas coming in a distant second.

So what set Clinton apart early on was the fact that he was a competitor in both New Hampshire and Georgia...making him the effective national candidate. Tsongas was competitive in the northeast and in some mountain states, but was a none factor everywhere else. The same was true for Harkin, who only won in Iowa and Minnisota because it was his home region.

<http://www.geocities.com/Athens/Agora/8088/Dem1992.html>

and I'd characterize it as the power of Win, Place, Show. All three are important positions.

In that formula he knocked out Kerry, the previous frontrunner.

Gephardt has the same problem he did in 1988: after Iowa, then what?

Ultimately I think Clark is the second-to-last standing, but he's got to run a perfect game. Win South Carolina, preferably one other state that day (like Arizona or Oklahoma), and then start to build momentum. Otherwise Super Tuesday could be very, very bad for him.

Gepthardt won't win anywhere else. The only chance he has is if he comes in second in New Hampshire one week later.

But he won't. He'll be lucky to come in third.

Then he won't come in shit in South Carolina. Then no one will care. That's really the tragedy of the Gepthardt campaign. He really doesn't have a prayer.

The winner of New Hampshire between Dean and Kerry moves on. If both lose, both are out. But it looks every day like Dean will win it there. His support is just too entrenched.

If he loses South Carolina, stories will surface about him losing in the south and how he can't win the south. If Edwards loses South Carolina, he's out. If Clark loses, he's out. If Lieberman loses South Carolina, he's out.

So after South Carolina it will become a two man show.

Dean vs. Clark

Dean vs. Edwards

Kerry vs. Clark

Kerry vs. Edwards.

Lieberman vs. Kerry

Lieberman vs. Dean

Then the campaign moves onto Michigan, an important union state to see who has union support. And then Super Tuesday where the nominee will be crowned.

You know though, the one with the clearest shot at winning is Howard Dean. If he wins Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Everyone else is out and he's the nominee.

happen unless things change a lot. Most interesting primaries in a long time.

But remember NH hasn't really been a player in awhile. Remember when Pet Buchanan won NH? Nobody thought he was on the road to something big.

MzPip
:dem:

It looks more like Dean country in my beloved mitten every day.

Julie

Gephardt has nowhere to go after Iowa. His supporters I can see splitting between everyone.

Kerry loses to Dean in New Hampshire and is out. Kerry's folks seem to like a candidate perceived as strong on defense, and one who is a veteran.. so I can see them flocking to Clark.

If Clark wins South Carolina, John Edwards is finished. Which means that Clark would be the only Southern candidate running. I can see Clark winning a huge portion of Edwards' supporters. Clark would also be the first candidate to win a primary against Dean, a fact which I can see the media using to mold this into a Dean-vs-Clark race.

A candidate needs 2170 delegates to win. The South has a combined total of about 1200 delegates, including SuperDelegates (I count TX, OK, AR, LA, TN, KY, MS, AL, GA, FL, SC, NC, and VA as "The South.") With Gephardt, Kerry, and Edwards gone (& Lieberman, whenever he drops-out), I can see Clark sweeping the South and giving Dean a good run for his money.

The nomination race will be decided in the midwest and the rocky mountain states. There will be a big battle for California's 440 delegates, but I suspect that Dean has the advantage there.

Interesting, eh?

What if Edwards wins SC, though. Which I think will happen. (And Dean will win Cali, imo)

Likely Democratic primary voters

Carol Moseley Braun 5%
Wesley Clark 17%
Howard Dean 7%
John Edwards 10%
Dick Gephardt 7%
John Kerry 4%
Dennis Kucinich 1%
Joe Lieberman 8%
Al Sharpton 5%
Undecided 36%

:D

Right now it appears to be a fight between Dean vs. Gephardt in Iowa.
In N.H. Dean seems to be the frontrunner, but a Gephardt win in Iowa could make him competitive in that primary.

And if Clark does win S.C., then whoever wins the second most votes would likely become the frontrunner.

And I don't mean (by "elephant") a Repuke/Rethug/Repug.