2004 senate primaries:strongest dems,strongest repubs. Part 1

In this thread I'm trying to analyze the various field of potential candidates to see what I believe is both the likly and or ideal scenario for dems and republicans. I think it's become a given the republicans will cross-vote and cross-contribute to nominate weak general election candidates in open dem fields(including for president) and I don't see why we shouldn't do the same thing

I'm excluding "frequent" candidates and kook/fringe candidates who the state parties would never accept, people with obviously shoddy websites and crazy ranting as well as people who are only potential candidates(Dennis Miller, Kelsey Grammar etc)

I'm sure many people here from these states might know more about what the local word is than I so feel free to add your input. If you think I should include someone I didn't please say so
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D. Alaska - No serious challenger to Tony Knowles

R. Alaska - No serious challenger to Lisa Murkowski

(( Should stay this way, and should be our best shot at a pickup, even more than Illinois))
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D. Arkansas - No challenger to Blance Lincoln

R. Arkansas - Only potention candidates Jim Holt (State Sen.) and Andy Lee (Ex-Benton County Sheriff). No info on either of them

(( so far so good))
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D. California : No challenger to Barbara Boxer

R. California :
Toni Casey - Ex-US Small Business Admin. Official & Ex-Los Altos Hills Mayor

Rosario Marin - US Treasurer & Ex-Huntington Park Councilwoman

Tony Strickland - State Assembly Republican Caucus Chair

((Because she would by far the strongest opponent and also the closest to the whitehouse, Marin will probably win the nom, Strickland IMO would be the weakest opponent to Boxer.))
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D. Colorado :
Brad Freedberg - Attorney & Accountant

Mike Miles - Educator, Ex-Diplomat & Retired Army Officer

R. Colorado :
Ben Nighthorse Campbell - (favored incombant)

Jerry Eller - Telecommunications Specialist & Army Veteran

Dan O'Bryant - Investment Advisor, Attorney & USAF Veteran

(( Unless Udall joins the dem primary, our best bet is Mike Miles. Considering Campbell will likly win the GOP primary, yet be weakened by it, we at least have a very slim shot with a candidate like Mike Miles ))
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D. Florida :
Betty Castor - Ex-University President, Ex-State Education Commissioner & Ex-State Sen

Peter Deutsch - Congressman, Ex-State Rep. & Attorney

Alcee Hastings - Congressman & Impeached Federal Judge

Alex Penelas - Miami-Dade County Mayor & Attorney

R. Forida :
Johnnie Byrd - State House Speaker & Attorney

Larry Klayman - Conservative Activist & Attorney

Bill McCollum - Ex-Congressman, Attorney, Navy Veteran & '00 Nominee

Daniel Webster - State Sen., Ex-State House Speaker & Air Conditioning Contractor

(( The race for dems is pretty much between Deutsch and Penelas, and Penelas is definetly stronger in my opinion for various reasons. Also, Deutsch comes off as a real blowhard, and very narrowly appealing.
I'm pretty unsure about the GOP side. If I had to bet, I'd say Byrd can win the nom, and I think Penelas can beat him.))
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D. Georgia :
Mary Squires - State Sen., Ex-State Rep. & Paralegal

R. Georgia :
Herman Cain - Ex-National Pizza Restaurant Chain CEO & Motivational Speaker

Mac Collins - Congressman, Ex-State Sen. & Ex-Businessman

Johnny Isakson - Congressman, Ex-State Sen., Ex-State Rep. & '96 Candidate

(( If the GOP nominates Cain, we lose. If Isakson or Collins get the nom, we have a shot. Plain and simple. Cain is a black right wing republican, which is gold to the national party and Rove. Dems in Georgia
should cross vote and cross-contribute for Collins in my opinion considering that there's only one dem candidate thus far. It's not racist, it's looking out for our interests and against Roves. ))
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D. Illinois :
Gery Chico - Ex-Chicago Board of Education President, Attorney & Ex-Chicago Mayoral Aide

M. Blair Hull - Investment Banker, Democratic Fundraiser & Army Veteran

Dan Hynes - State Comptroller & Attorney

Barack Obama - State Sen., Attorney & '00 Congressional Candidate

Maria Pappas - Cook County Treasurer, Ex-Cook County Commissioner & Attorney

Nancy Skinner - Ex-Radio Talk Show Host, Ex-Financial Analyst & Ex-Paralegal


R. Illinois :
Chirinjeev Kathuria - Telecom Company CEO & Physician

Andy McKenna Jr. - Paper Company President

Jim Oberweis - Securities Firm Executive, Dairy Company Owner & '02 Candidate

Steve Rauschenberger - State Sen. & Ex-Furniture Retailer

Jack Ryan - Teacher & Retired Investment Banker

(( I think that this Illinois is less of a homerun than we think it is. All the dems have flaws, including every frontrunner Hull, Hynes, Obama, and Chico. I think that for the GOP, it'll either be Oberweis or Ryan, and I believe that Ryan would be a very hard candidate to defeat. He's Jeri Ryan's ex-husband and like her character on Boston Public, he left a six figure job to work in an inner city school. He's also has JFK jr. type looks. That's why I believe he's Rove's preferred candidate and why his candidacy is likly. I don't think Hynes could beat him, because when career pol/ establishment democrats face newcomers like Ryan in high-tax dem-dominant states, they tend to lose. So, either vote against Ryan in the GOP primary or for a maverick-type like Obama.))
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D. Louisiana: - John Breaux, barring retirement, in which case it will be congressman Chris John

R. Louisiana: - If Breaux retires, Rep. David Vitter

((So far it looks like there won't be a real primary race whether Breaux retires or not))
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D. Missouri:
Charles Berry - Attorney & Vietnam War Veteran

Nancy Farmer - State Treasurer & Ex-State Rep.

R. Missouri: No Challangers to Kit Bond

(( Usually I would favor the Vienam veteran, but I think Farmer would be a slightly stronger candidate, and she's also much more likly to get the nom anyway. I wish Gephardt would run either way, but I doubt he'll have to assemble a senate campaign if the primary is when I think it is))
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coming soon: Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Washington, and Wisconsin

so talk of those states on this thread please. I'm working on this as a paper for my polisci class, and I might use info you add.

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On the Democratic side, Charles Berry has almost no chance, as the Democratic machinery is fully behind Nancy Farmer.

See her endorsements:
http://www.nancyfarmerforussenate.com/endorse1.html

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I think that it depends on alot. Like who the presidential candidate is.

It's a slim one at best

<snip>

The Castor poll, by Hamilton Beattie & Staff pollsters — who also polled for Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson’s successful campaign three years ago — was done in October with 700 registered Democrats who said they vote often and expect to next year.

The margin of error is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

Asked which candidate they support or lean toward now for next year’s primary, 23 percent voted for Castor, the former education commissioner and former president of the University of South Florida.

U.S. Reps. Peter Deutsch of Fort Lauderdale and Alcee Hastings of Miramar each had 13 percent; Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas had 8 percent, and 32 percent were undecided.

U.S. Rep. Allen Boyd of North Florida, who dropped out of the race after the poll was done, had 11 percent.

more...http://www.news-press.com/news/local_state/031105castor.html

It's a private poll, but it is surprising....showing that Castor and Hastings may have a better shot than we think.

Other than that, I agree with your predictions.

it's definetly different from any others where Hastings and Castor are always in the second tier

I'm behind Penelas all the way though. There are some DUers who bash him with unsubtantiated accusations. It's the same thing Deutsch is doing.

He's been a great mayor and a great guy in my opinion.

Knowles/Murkowski will be competitive, but I give the edge to Knowles.

Lincoln is reelected by a comfortable margin.

Boxer is reelected (it's California, folks! - - not even Marin will win a U.S. Senate seat in a presidential election year).

Campbell is reelected.

Penelas/Deutsch/Castor will be a tough primary fight. My preference is Castor...I think Deutsch will be too partisan. Penelas might be a good compromise candidate. I think any of the three of them could win, but all will have a competitive General Election fight.

If Squires is the Dem nominee in Georgia, I agree that Cain would give her the toughest battle. But against Isakson or Collins, Squires could still get a boost from a likable Dem presidential nominee.

Obama is my favorite in Illinois, but Hull/Hynes want the nomination badly too. I don't think any of the Republicans have a shot here.

Breaux wins in a walk. If Breaux retires, it could be competitive.

Farmer has a good chance of taking out Bond. Bond's reelection margins have not been that strong in the past.

PREDICTIONS:

AK: Democrat (D pickup)
AR: Democrat (D hold)
CA: Democrat (D hold)
CO: Republican (R hold)
FL: Too close to call (possible R pickup)
GA: Too close to call (possible R pickup)
IL: Democrat (D pickup)
LA: Democrat (D hold, unless Breaux retires)
MO: Democrat (D pickup)

Most of the Republican heavy-hitters in the state (Huckabee, Rockefeller, A. Hutchinson) have decided not to run against her. Lincoln will probably wind up against a lightweight, and will have a victory somewhere in the 55%-60% area.

History's on Lincoln's side as well; I believe there's only been one Republican senator in Arkansas since Reconstruction (Tim Hutchinson), and he was defeated in his bid for a second term by an eight-point margin.

the recall shows that there has been a huge right-wing movement in CA that won't go away in a year.

Read Marin's bio, it's very impressive. If she was a dem, people here would love her.

In 02, most people at liberal blogs were confident in a 4 seat increase for dems minimum.

As well as Illinois. Obama is a Chicago area black liberal. Hynes is old-boy network type party hack. Of you don't think Ryan can beat them, you're too naive.

I think it demonstrated the ability of a group of right-wingers (not a massive conspiracy) to take dissatisfaction with Gray Davis, coupled with the name recognition for a movie star, and turn it into a "mandate."

I'm not convinced that the recall represents some massive turn to the right wing. Remember that most of Schwarzenegger's support came from people who didn't even know his stance on the issues. Basically, people were pissed off at Gray Davis and thought it would be "cool" to have the Terminator running the state.

Just my 1.5 cents.

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The majority of people who voted for Schwarzenegger didn't know his stance on the issues. To suddenly claim all of those people as hardcore Republicans is a bit of a stretch, IMO.

http://edition.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/10/07/recall.exit/

Schwarzenegger scored highly among those who said a candidate's personal attributes are more important than the issues.

Of those polled, 56 percent said that was the case with Schwarzenegger.

Okay, so Schwarzengger got 48 percent of the vote, right? Take away that 56% of his vote, and only 21% voted for him based on something other than personal attributes (read: HE'S A MOVIE STAR).

Combine that with McClintock's 13 percent (assuming that everybody voted for him because of something other than personal attributes), and it comes out to 34% of Californians voting for Schwarzenegger or McClintock based on something other than personal attributes.

I'm sure there was another exit poll figure (which I can't find) that said 62% of Schwarzenegger supporters didn't feel he made his stance on the issues clear.

People voted for Schwarzenegger because he's a movie star. It's that simple. In a long-term campaign, he would have been obliged to deal with the issues, and his numbers would have dropped.

Exiting polling also showed that Schwarzenegger won the election despite a perception -- by nearly two-thirds of those who responded -- that he never addressed voters' issues on the campaign trail.

Schwarzenegger scored highly among those who said a candidate's personal attributes are more important than the issues.

Of those polled, 56 percent said that was the case with Schwarzenegger, while 27 percent said the same for Bustamante.

Take away the 27 percent that supported Bustamante because of "personal attributes," and Bustamante's 32 percent becomes 23%.

It's unfortunate that we don't have McClintock's figures here, but let's match them up:

Bustamante: 23%
Schwarzenegger: 21%
McClintock (raw figure): 13%

I contend (and will continue to contend) that Schwarzenegger wouldn't have won in a long term election.

Yes I've read Marin's bio, and I still can't imagine her winning over Boxer in a presidential election year. MAYBE if it was a midterm, but not in 2004.

And McClintock is uberconservative. Most of those who voted for Arnold did so because they knew only a liberal Republican could win in California. Also, the recall was a special election (not the same day as a General Election), with lower turnout favoring Republicans. Add to that how Gray Davis was hated by many within his own party, and Bustamante fucked up majorly. Boxer is widely beloved by California Democrats, who will turn out in droves to reelect her. Barbara Boxer is a Senator for life, and honestly, I'd be more concerned about Patty Murray in Washington state.

Illinois is the land of Paul Simon, Richard Durbin, and Rod Blagojevich. The only reason Fitzgerald won was because he was a billionaire and most of the crossover votes for him were moreso votes against Moseley-Braun. Even then, Fitzgerald's margin of victory wasn't significant. Neither Fitzgerald nor Moseley-Braun will be a factor in 2004. Obama would heavily turn out urban Chicago, and would appeal to swing voters downstate who've become dissatisfied with Fitzgerald.

the turnout was for the recall was bigger than any gubinatorial election there ever.

But I doubt turnout for 2004 will be lower than the recall.

Not to mention that many Californians probably participated in the recall because that's how badly they wanted to get rid of Davis and vote for a Hollywood celebrity.

For Edwards' seat. It looks like it will probably be Erskin Bowles vs. congressman Richard Burr.

Bowles lost last year to Dole 53% to 47%. But I think Bowles will take it. He's already run a state-wide race, money will not be an issue, he has state-wide name recognition. Burr is hardcore republican and will only win if Bush wins in a landslide.

Erskine Bowles did quite well for someone running against an extraordinarily well-funded celebrity like Elizabeth Dole.

He's being challenged, I think, by (former?) speaker Dan Blue but I think he's still a shoo-in for the nomination.

at least runs a credible campaign here.

If Bush wins NC by 6 %, Bwles can probably win. If Bush wins by 14 % because the prez. candidate gave the state up, then that's probably too high a hurdle for Bowles to jump.

he's also lived in SC and in GA during his life.

AK: I think we have a good chance here. This state is very conservative though and I think Murkowski will win if she does a good job connecting Knowles to the national party. Knowles could be hurt if ANWR is made an important issue in the presidential campaign.

AR: This state seems to be shaping up pretty well for us. Blanche Lincoln should be able to pull this one off. She is moderate on most issues and Arkansas just elected Mark Pryor. Neither of those potential challengers have much name ID so she should win here.

CA: Boxer will probably pull this one off but she is the most liberal member of the US senate so clearly that puts her at risk in any state. The republicans will certainly be confident here but they don't have a strong candidate yet. Rosario Marin is viewed as a bad candidate by republicans and they are hoping that former California Secretary of State Bill Jones will run. If he does, then he will be the favorite to win the nomination and could be a good candidate. If he doesn't run, David Dreier might and he could also be a threat. This race is worth watching but unless Jones or Dreier runs I think we will win here somewhat comfortably.

CO: Unless Udall or Hart runs, we're screwed. Campbell is a maverick republican and if Wayne Allard can win then Campbell can win. Mark Udall would make a strong democratic nominee and would have a chance. He may be too liberal though but he could still win. Gary Hart said he wouldn't run if Udall runs but if Udall doesn't than he hasn't ruled it out. I think that if Hart were to run he would be our best hope. This race is still somewhat unclear untill we know who is running.

FL: Basically, all the candidate here on both sides are horrible. The republicans are too right win and this is a swing state where I think the most moderate candidate has the best chance. The democratic candidates are just bad. Alcee Hasting probably won't win the nomination and would unelectable. Being an impeached federal judge isn't exactly something to put on the resume. Deutsch seems mean and Penelas apparently didn't reallys support Gore very much and has upset many black and jewish groups for some reason. Betty Castor doesn't seem to have as much baggage so she might be better than the others. That poll indicates that maybe she is in a strong position to win the nomination.

GA: Mary Squires is completely unelectable. If she is our nominee, then we lose to any of the republicans. I'm guessing that Johnny Isakson is the winner of the republican primary but Mac Collins has a chance. I just don't see Cain winning the primary. Hopefully, someone like Jim Marshall or Mike Thurmond will run because Squires can't win.

IL: I think we have a great chance here. This state has become very liberal recently. Illinois is our best chance for a pickup. Dan Hynes seems more moderate and will have strong organizational backing in the primary. I think he would be the best canididate in the general. Barack Obama is a strong candidate as well, but more liberal and Blair Hull will save the party a lot of money if he is nominated. My guess right now is that Obama will win the primary though because he is more liberal and may get a lot of the black vote. The republican canididates may be strong but Illinois is the second most liberal state in country to have a republican and I think that will end soon. Ryan will have issues since his last name is the same as the former corrupt governor and that probably hurt last year's republican nominee for governor who had the last name Ryan as well. If we run a strong, solid campaign we should win.

LA: If John Breaux runs then he wins. Since there aren't primaries really in Louisiana it is hard to tell who will be the "nominee." Presumably, Vitter and John would run but it is possible that enough other candidates would force a runoff. They are both excellent candidates and I think this race would be a tossup. Perhaps, we can see after the governor's election to see what the mood is in Louisiana.

MO: Almost certainly Nancy Farmer will win the nomination. Bond is always somewhat vulnerable and never wins by big margins. I think that he will pull off this race as well. Farmer doesn't appear to be an excellent candidate and most likely this will go to Bond with something like 53%. Missouri seems to have a lot of close senate races. This state is a swing state but seems to be leaning to the republicans recently. This should be an uphill battle.

under his mayoral career, crime is down to a 25 year low, and job growth has been the best in the state, in a state with great job growth all around.

would have you believe. Before this year we had been under Republican governors for some 30 years.

I think that the success of Democratic candidates as of late has more to do with extreme dissatisfaction with corruption in the IL GOP than political realignment.

We have a great chance for a pickup in Illinois, but dont take it for granted, or someone like Ryan could come along and win.

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My gut tells me we will be lucky to hold 3 of the 5 Senate seats in the South and Georgia really will make little difference (I doubt miller would vote with the Democrats now if they won a majority). Some rethug Senators are vulernable if only our side could field some good candidates. Missouri would be a strong possibility if Gephardt would run against bond. Right now I see us losing 1 to 2 seats overall, but hey I was pretty wrong in 2002 (of course we STILL don't know what happened with the "voting" machines as the exit polling data hasn't been released yet.).

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