Prediction Thread: How Do You Think the Primaries Will Play-Out?

Who will win IA, and how will its results affect the candidates?
Same question for New Hampshire.
Same for South Carolina.
And beyond..

When will each candidate drop-out?
When a candidate drops-out, to which other candidate(s) do you think their followers will flock?

And finally, will the race come-down to two last candidates, and if so - who will win?

I'm interested in seeing people's predictions.

DNC superdelagates put Gephardt over the top at the convention.

but I don't believe either will win General election either. Sure would love to be wrong though.

but will get his ass handed to him during the general election. :(

Clark will squeak out SC, but Dean will win AZ, NM and be unstoppable from there.

Braun and Sharpton will probably drop out before Iowa just because they don't have much money. Kucinich will hold on for as long as he can but will drop out by the end of SC at the latest. Gephardt will lose Iowa to Dean and it will devastate his campaign. He might hang in until after SC, but I doubt it. Kerry will be banking on a third place in Iowa and first or second in NH. He won't get either and after a poor showing in SC, he'll continue to fizzle out, lasting a little while longer, but probably not much. That will leave Edwards, Clark and Dean. I think most of the other candidates' supporters will end up supporting Dean, then Clark, then Edwards. Even though those supporters of other candidates often show a lot of animosity towards Dean, I don't think it's anything more than envy and wishing that their candidate were in Dean's shoes. People don't want to support losing campaigns. After wins in Iowa and NH and a possible win in SC (at least in the top 2), Dean will be looking more and more like the clear winner and that alone will pull the most people in. I think Edwards stays in for awhile until it becomes obvious that he can't touch Clark, let alone Dean. This leaves Dean and Clark for the end game. I think that because Clark started late and Dean has been at a full sprint throughout that it's going to be Dean. I also suspect that the DLC and DNC will beg Dean to choose Clark as VP unless he makes a royal screw up between now and then. If he does, they will push Edwards. Dean will take either of the two as VP and make it appear to be a gesture to mend the rift with the Democratic Leadership, but he would have both on his short list anyhow.

Dean will win the nomination and either Clark or Edwards will be the VP, depending entirely on how good or bad Clark does from now until then.

Oh, Lieberman will be out around the same time as Kerry. He'll hang on longer than Gephardt, but not much.

I only disagree with you on VP choice. I feel absolutely certain that Dean will choose Graham as VP. I'm not saying I think that's the right and/or strongest choice; but it WILL be the choice nonetheless. That's the word (or whisper) on the street :-)

I'm not trying to sound condescending, but i don't think Sharpton is running for President. I think he's running for an agenda and to expand his clout as a power broker. Neither of these things take a lot of money as long as he keeps showing up at debates. Sharpton really has nothing to lose and everything to gain by staying in.

Dean a close second. Clark makes a strong showing.

Dean takes NH by a landslide. Kerry second. Clark third.

Clark takes South Carolina by a landslide along with Arizona, Missouri (Gephardt second, Dean third), New Mexico, and Oklahoma.

Gephardt, Lieberman, Kerry, and Edwards drop out. Their voters nearly all going to Clark.

Clark dominates Super Tuesday.

Clark wins nomination and chooses Edwards as running mate.

Clark becomes POTUS in a landslide.

There's NO way. Dean will SWEEP AZ and NM (not to mention Iowa). You can bank on that!

I'll give you SC for Clark. But that's it. Dean will be a very close second there, and might even take it when Jesse Jackson endorses him shortly before.

he dropped out the causcuses.

he will not get any delegates.

Such much for THAT prediction. LOL

Mosely-Braun out by March 2004
Lieberman, Kucinich out by June 2004
Edwards out by July
Gephardt out by August
Clark, Kerry, Dean and Sharpton in 'till the end.

Dean in 2004

First to drop out, Braun. Then Sharpton. Then either Edwards or Kucinich. Then Joe. Then Gephardt. With this you have Kerry, Clark, and Dean left. I can potentially see all of them running to the very end, but the way things our going now it seems like it will be a Kerry v. Dean matchup. Also, remember that Kerry and Dean have raised a ton of money for their campaigns so they should be able to hold out till the end. Clark could stay in there but I have a feeling the whole "general" thing will wear off slowly.

convention!

If Dean wins Iowa, Gepthardt is finished there and then.

If Gepthardt wins, I just don't see where else he gets support.

So as long as Dean finishes a close second, Dean will be the ultimate winner coming out of Iowa.

Dean will destroy Kerry in New Hampshire. That will end the candidacy of John Kerry. No points for a close second in NH if you are from MA. No MA candidate running for President has ever lost the New Hampshire primary. To lose, even by a little, would be devestating for Kerry - especially with all his endorsements in that state.

South Carolina will be the first true test.

Left in the race will be: Dean, Lieberman, Clark, and Edwards (the Braun, Kucinich and Sharpton campaigns will become inconsequential when the voting starts).

I guess it depends on who finishes third and fourth in New Hampshire. If Clark finishes fourth in NH he will be in trouble and HAVE to win in SC to show some sort of appeal. Same for Lieberman.

If Dean wins SC kiss the primaries goodbye because Dean will be the nominee.

If Clark wins SC it becomes a Dean vs. Clark race.

If Edwards wins South Carolina he temporarily saves his campaign but will have to prove he can win outside his home region.

If Lieberman wins SC it becomes a Dean vs. Lieberman contest.

It also depends on who comes in second. If Dean finishes third or fourth, that may hurt him - because the argument will be that Dean can't win the south.

If Clark finishes third or fourth - he is finished.

If Edwards loses, he is finished. Being from North Carolina - he has to win in South Carolina.

Then the surviving candidates - at this point I see only two emerging.

Dean and either Clark/Lieberman/Edwards

(the only way three survive South Carolina is if Edwards wins it and Clark or Lieberman come in a very close second).

Then it will be Michigan. Michigan will show which candidate has strong union support. After that it will be Super Tuesday and who ever "wins" there will be the nominee.

That's exactly how it will play out. Mark my words.

Dean is the only candidate with an easy path to the nomination. If he wins Iowa, NH, and SC. It is over and out. Dean will be the nominee after SC.

There are still "Draft Gore" people?

They've become kind of a joke at this point.