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about the proportional delegates, however, you're assuming that none of the candidates will drop out before the convention. The reality is that four or five of them probably will, although those are the four or five least likely to have any delegates (Lieberman, Mosely Braun, Sharpton, and I'll leave it to you to decide who else is most likely to give up).
Money is usually the biggest problem, and candidates who run out of money early on can't keep campaigning, and they're gone. Usually they release their delegates who then can declare themselves for someone else or even go in to the convention uncommitted.
Personally I'd be very surprised if one of the top guys (in alphabetical order Clark, Dean, Edwards, Kerry, and Kucinich) doesn't become the clear leader in delegates very early on, and have the nomination sewn up by mid March.
A brokered convention is the worst possible thing that could happen. To have four or five candidates still fighting for the nomination into July will simply tear the party apart and make coming together behind the nominee simply impossible. Which of course would mean Bush would win quite easily.
Oh, and in my opinion, neither Al Gore nor Hillary Clinton will become the convention's choice at any point.
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