Political Fireworks Possible in 2004 (Brokered convention/Gore scenario)

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http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-op-phillips30nov30,1,4876352.story?coll=la-headlines-politics

WASHINGTON — The presidential election of 2000 was one of the low points of modern U.S. politics. But the upcoming 2004 nomination contests have the potential to be exciting. Either or both conventions could be electrifying affairs.

Democrats may have the first multi-ballot convention since 1952, which could be a disaster or an unexpected opportunity. Republicans, who set their convention in New York City so President Bush could return to the scene of his apparent post-9/11 political triumph, might find Manhattan circa 2004 a much less friendly international stage. There may be more FBI agents and uniformed military people in town than visiting politicians.

When Democratic delegates head to Boston for their late July convention, they might not have an obvious nominee. This possibility flies in the face of the party's record of the last three decades. Each time, the leading contender who won the bulk of the primaries won the nomination — on the first ballot.

In 2004, if no candidate breaks away from the pack early and clearly, Balkanization could set in, because too many convention delegates might be selected too quickly. By mid-March, with two-thirds of the delegates already chosen, you could have an incipient stalemate, with Howard Dean holding 28% of them, Dick Gephardt 22%, John Kerry 16%, Wesley Clark 12%, John Edwards 8%, Joe Lieberman 7% and Al Sharpton 5%.

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which I've posted about too. It is the only way Gore could at this late date get the nomination is if the party is hopelessly deadlocked and we need a compromise candidate. Having said that it is not likely to happen imo.

and that will not be good for Dean. It will be good for the candidates with support within the Party. Lieberman, Kerry, and Gephardt will benefit.

Most supported the war publically. Most supported NYSAG Spitzer's assumption that Dean is unelectable. I'm a Dean supporter, but I would laugh my ass off if the people Dean supported for delegates vote for Gore in a deadlock. Serves us peacenics right for not supporting Kucinich.

would be a Newsmax wet dream. They would have days of "Hillary!" headlines.

I was going to say "ain't gonna happen", but who knows ? Look at DU as a microcosm.

Especially if Clark, Edwards, Leiberman, Braun, and Gephardt back out and support Gore.:dem:

bush would mop up the floor with Gore.

Every election there's someone who predicts it. Someone will be right someday, but I agree. Remote possibility.

anything could happen. I see a this as what will seal the Dean/Clark ticket. Whoever is in 2nd place between the two of them will accept being the VP for his delegates and maybe putting them over the top to get the nod.

I'm a life long Democrat. (Well, OK, I was registered as an Independent from 1975-1984, but I was working as a journalist with ethics.)

I would be incredibly angry at my leadership if they somehow managed to put together an Anybody But Dean coaltion of other candidates plus super delegates. I would, at the end of the day, vote for the candidate I'm stuck with.

But there are a lot of "new" voters in the Dean movement, and I'm not sure what they would do in a broker convention that was triggered by something identify as an Anybody But Dean movement.

I would expect many would vote Green or not vote at all. Or they might pressure Dean to run as a third partty candidate.

I sure hope that the folks on the DNC (super delegates all) are thinking about the potential downside consequences of ABD.

Hell, if Dean had a majority of state-allocated delegates, but fell short, and the super delegates voted as a block to stop him, that would be ugly.

If Dean ran as a third party candidate, many people would consider him the Democratic candidates in much the same way that many people consider Gore to be President. The only difference is, if Dean were on the ballot in states as an Independent Democrat, 1) Bush wins and 2) the party's mainstream candidate finishes third. Just my own prediction.

I am *not* advocating any of this. I am just voicing outloud a concern I have about how the party leadership, and the super delegates in particular, will handle a narrow Dean majority at the convention.

Read this old MSNBC story.

http://www.msnbc.com/news/912997.asp

Forty percent of the delegates at the Democratic convention will not be selected by primary or caucus. They already know they are going.

How many will support Dean, even if he has a significant majority of the genuinely "democratic" delegates.

I believe that Clark is counting on overwhelming support from this block, as the acceptable on foreign policy/defense alternative candidate.

He only needs to win enough delegates and support to stay in the media, and not be written off.

One of our two national committee persons is openly for Clark. I'm not sure what the others are doing.

I wonder if we should start drafting a resolution to bind super delegates to the outcome of the state convention on the first vote as a condition of future party officeship or endorsement/support?

and then switch over to the nominee when it's decided. If we all wait to find out who the nominee is to volunteer, it might be too late to have as much impact.

I'll bet money he won't walk out with it.

At the end of the day it'll be Clark after all.

What the Dean people will do after that is up in the air, isn't it?

Most of them will still work to defeat Bush but I doubt they'll be calling themselves Democrats after having the nomination snatched out of their grasp. A new party is not out of the question, IMHO, and that would not be a bad thing AFTER Bush is gone.

England and other countries seem to survive as multi-party states. There's nothing set in stone that says we have to have only two.

And I'd love to see our President regularly called on his policies the way Parliament can call Blair on his.

2004 may be serendipitous for American politics.

and the only way that's going to happen is if he SWEEPS the primaries. With his 18% that he is currently pulling, it looks unlikely, but it's still possible.

I have long been wondering about this scenario. Dean has the momentum to capture a lot of delegates, but Clark and Edwards have interesting draws as well and could run strong in a lot of states.

We shall see.