Two Questions about Next election?

Which states are definete write-offs for next year?

My picks:
Idaho
Texas
Utah
Mississippi
Alabama
South Carolina

Other question:

Being from Colorado, I have taken an interest in the threads about this state. Everybody says that Bob Beauprez is in trouble. What do you know about the guy who "represents" my district: Tom Tancredo?

How much trouble is he in?

I have a libertarian-conservative friend who hates him because he is a xenophobic war-monger who thinks that the republicans have a monopoly on truth and righteousness.

that he isn't the only libertarian who is frustrated with Bush. I have met tons of libertarians who are angry with him.

The American Conservative wrote a piece on the Libertarian revolt in the Republican party:

http://www.amconmag.com/11_17_03/cover.html

like Georgia, North Carolina, Montana . . .

The key to winning isn't being "competitive" in every state. It is in winning enough electoral votes to make a majority (270).

We start with the states Gore won, and try to hold them. The toughest to hold will be the closest ones, like Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico and Wisconsin. Incumbents have a built-in advantage for reelection, so special efforts will be required there.

Next, we have to look at states we lost narrowly last time. Florida, of course, West Virginia and Ohio. Louisiana should also be targeted, with the results in recent statewide elections. WV is almost sure to come back; they are mad at Bush for repealing steel tariffs and the Democrat nominee won't go out of his way to offend gun owners this time.

Missouri might come into play if Gephardt is on the ticket. Clark could contend for Arkansas and Tennessee.

We must also consider that no Democrat has ever won the Presidency without carrying at least two southern states. Ever, in over 200 years of the party putting forth a nominee.

Is Kansas actually considered in contention?