Pay Attention: Shifts in States May Give Bush Electoral Edge

Shifts in States May Give Bush Electoral Edge
By KATHARINE Q. SEELYE

Published: December 2, 2003

WASHINGTON, Dec. 1 — Beyond issues like Iraq and the economy is one political reality that both the White House and Democrats say is already shaping next year's presidential race: If President Bush carries the same states in 2004 that he won in 2000, he will win seven more electoral votes.

That change, a result of a population shift to Republican-friendly states in the South and West in the last several years, means the Republicans have a slight margin of error in 2004 while the Democrats will have to scramble just to pull even.

In 2000, after Florida's 25 electoral votes were awarded to Mr. Bush, he won the presidency with 271 — 5 more than Al Gore's 266. Since then 18 states have either won or lost electoral votes, with 7 states that Mr. Bush won last time gaining a total of 11 electoral votes: Florida picked up 2, as did Texas, Georgia and Arizona. North Carolina, Nevada and Colorado each gained 1.

The gain of 11 electoral votes was offset by a loss of 4 from four other Bush states, leaving Mr. Bush with a net gain of 7. The Democrats lost eight electoral votes in six states that went for Mr. Gore and gained one in another, for their net loss of seven.

The shift in the electoral map means that the Republicans have a crucial cushion going into the 2004 presidential campaign. Mr. Bush could hold all the states he won in 2000 except for, say, West Virginia and its five electoral votes, and still win in 2004. The Democrats have no such room for error. They must hold all the states Mr. Gore won and add to them to make up the difference.

"Before a vote is cast, we've increased our margin," Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for Mr. Bush's campaign, said. "In a race that's very close, those small readjustments in the electoral map will have significance." - http://nytimes.com/2003/12/02/national/02ELEC.html?hp

are we screwed or what?!

- Bush* will once again lose the popular vote and 'win' the EC.

- Jefferson and many of the Founders believed that the 'majority' should rule when it comes to deciding leadership of the nation. The EC should be cast into the dustbin of history where it belongs.

>The EC should be cast into the dustbin of history where it belongs.

One can say that, but it's not going to happen anytime soon. The current system gives a voice to the smaller, less populated states that would be virtually ignored during a nationwide campaign. It would take a Constitutional Ammendment passed by 2/3rds of the states, and smaller states would be foolish to give up the small amount of power they do have.

:donut:

dai

...it takes EVERYONES voice away. But you're right: why would politicians do away with a system they can rig to their advantage?

- But...isn't the voice of the people more important the the 'voice' of the states? That's why this nation is so divided. It should be up to the PEOPLE to choose their leaders...not some antiquated system that's easily tainted to work for the few instead of the many.

The EC being "manupulated or cheated" is something I'm not quite sure of what you are intending to say. Every state has Electorial College voters based up their number of representatives they have in Congress.

I think we have to go back to how the founding fathers envisioned the USA, which was individual states acting as their own little countries with a federal government for them to unite under in order to protect themselves from outside forces. With that in mind, the Electoral College makes sense. I'm not so sure we shouldn't re-visit this idea of stronger states rights more closely.

Also, I have to wonder with how many of us this wouldn't be an issue at all had the shoe been on the other foot, in other words had the Supreme Court decided in such a way that favored Al Gore would we even be having this conversation.

Oh well, gotta get to work. Take care.

Add to Edit - After re-reading rather quickly, I see what you're saying regarding "manupulating", but don't have time to address it now. Maybe later.

She helped gut Al Gore during the 2000 election.

- Let's take a closer look at the message instead of the messenger.

It is an influx of more liberal voters moving into the Bush states.

They will become much more competitive, and could mean the end of Republican dominance in the South.

Interesting thought, but I couldn't necessarily say that's true. One could just as easily presume it's conservative voters moving to get out of liberal states.

These movements over the years had predominately been manufacturing jobs moving out of higher-cost regions of the Northeast, Mid-West, and California into states that are considered more "business-friendly". I suspect people are simply following those jobs or job-prospects.

More specifically, people moving from the Northeast to N and S Carolina, and from California into smaller western states.

I've read some locally focused articles describing the political effect. It remains to be seen how it will play out in this election, but it is not as simple as this article states.

This trend will continue as more baby boomers reach retirement age too.

...the EC can be used to override the will of the people. Remember during the Florida recount when the GOP-controlled legislature guaranteed their EC votes to Bush* even if Gore won the recount?

it could happen again.

We can't let that happen.

...what I was thinking.

But, the EC changes are based on the 2000 census, so the voters were technically already there and probably voted in the last election.

Probably not good...

Can we have another Bush win with more voting for the other guy. God help us if that happens. Bush is so in fear of the country now he will get in the hole with his vice and stay their. Karl will run things along with DeLay.What madness.I never felt I would live in the most hated country on earth.

I shudder to think about what will happen if the DNC and the individual campaign organization of our eventual nominee don't have a well organized, highly structured, highly disciplined plan to win at least some of the states that bush* won in 2000.

Dems lost 7 and Repubs gained 7 = 14. However, the gains were in mostly Repub states anyway. The positive may be that the 4 states that actually lost electoral votes for Repubs may go Democratic? With the loss of voters, likely Republican, it would increase the possibility of Dems winning in those states. There is no guarantee that the shift in population goes to Repubs or Dems.

Bush's gyrations over steel could cost him ohio and WV. Iraq hangs like an anchor around his neck. I also believe that the statistical "recovery" is not real, and that will be quite apparent by election day.

...of the article. The Bushies KNOW they can't win the popular vote. They will once again manipulate the EC vote in order to stay in office. The states don't have to give their EC votes to the popular vote winner. They can literally give it to anyone they want.

unless Democrats lay down as they did in 2000.

That will not happen because the winner of the Democratic primary will not be a wimp.

Gore could have fought for Ohio & WV if he did not have that egomaniac Nader "fooling" with his base.

If the Dem wins FLORIDA, you know, like Al Gore did, this whole
argument is MOOT.

Same states to each party, but FL goes rightfully to the Dem, and
Bush's advantage disappears.

266 + 25 - 7 = 298

Notice how GOP shill Seelye doesn't even CONSIDER that the
Dems can win Florida.

Bigby

...what makes you think they'll give their EC votes to a Democrat instead of their God-chosen leader Bush*? It won't matter to them that a Democrat may actually get more votes.

Just watch all the National Guards of all the States with Dem governors, siege Jacksonville.

There's no way they would be this nakedly partisan, without reprocussions, or starting a wave of cessessions from the union.

...when the Bushie Republicans literally copped the whole election...plus TAKING EC votes that didn't belong to them.

- Watch the movie 'Unprecedented' and see what I mean. There will be no 'war' or riots when the Bushies steal it again. Count on it.

We win.

For a closer look at the electoral map you can visit a cool interactive vote counter at www.johnedwards2004.com.